US-Japan trade deal – will this one be too tricky for Trump?

US President Donald Trump said this week that helium is not assured the United States volition scope a commercialized woody with Japan up of adjacent week’s deadline to reinstate planetary tariffs helium paused 3 months ago.

Trump besides threatened to enforce tariffs of 30 percent to 35 percent connected Japan if a commercialized woody is not achieved, peculiarly successful narration to US income of atom and cars.

This has caused interest among automobile and physics manufacturers successful Japan, whose exports to the US substance the Japanese economy.

Here is what we cognize astir the US-Japan commercialized talks.

What did Trump accidental astir a commercialized woody with Japan?

Most of Washington’s trading partners are seeking commercialized deals arsenic the July 9 deadline for the extremity of a intermission connected reciprocal tariffs looms closer.

Trade talks person continued betwixt the US and Japan for immoderate time. Japan’s main commercialized negotiator and system minister, Ryosei Akazawa, is making arrangements for his eighth sojourn to the US arsenic aboriginal arsenic this weekend, Japanese broadcaster TV Asahi reported connected Wednesday.

The US had a $69.4bn trading shortage with Japan successful 2024, according to US national data. Trump is seeking to adjacent this. But this week, helium voiced doubts astir whether Washington and Tokyo could scope a commercialized woody astatine all.

“We’ve dealt with Japan. I’m not definite if we’re gonna marque a deal, I uncertainty it, with Japan,” Trump told reporters connected committee Air Force One connected Tuesday.

“They and others are truthful spoiled from having ripped america disconnected for 30, 40 years that it’s truly hard for them to marque a deal.”

Why has Trump threatened Japan with caller tariffs?

Trump threatened to enforce a tariff of “30 percent oregon 35 percent” connected Japan if a commercialized woody is not reached by the clip the reciprocal tariff intermission is lifted connected July 9. A basal 10 percent tariff connected goods imported to the US, including from Japan, has remained successful spot passim this pause.

On April 2, erstwhile Trump announced his “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs, helium unveiled a 24 percent tariff for Japan connected astir goods but cars, aluminium and steel.

Trump says helium does not program to widen the intermission for higher, reciprocal tariffs.

Once they are backmost successful place, vehicles and car parts from Japan, arsenic good arsenic from different countries, look a 25 percent tariff. Aluminium and alloy imports from each countries, including Japan, look a 50 percent tariff based connected an bid Trump signed connected June 4.

Now, Trump is zeroing successful connected atom income to Japan arsenic well, alleging that Japan does not bargain atom from the US. “I person large respect for Japan, they won’t instrumentality our RICE, and yet they person a monolithic atom shortage,” helium wrote connected his Truth Social level connected Monday. “We’ll conscionable beryllium sending them a letter, and we emotion having them arsenic a Trading Partner for galore years to come,” Trump added, without specifying immoderate details astir the letter.

Trump besides claimed that Japan does not bargain cars from the US. “We didn’t springiness them 1 car successful 10 years,” helium told reporters connected Air Force One this week. During a Fox News interrogation that aired connected June 29, Trump besides said that Japan does not bargain American cars and added: “It’s not fair.”

“So what I’m going to bash is I’ll constitute them a letter, say, ‘We convey you precise much. We cognize you can’t bash the benignant of things that we need, and truthful you’ll wage a 30 percent, 35 percent oregon immoderate the numbers that we determine,” Trump said this week. “Because we besides person a precise large commercialized shortage with Japan, arsenic you know, and it’s precise unfair to the American people.”

Does Japan bargain cars and atom from the US?

Yes. Contrary to what Trump told reporters this week, Japan bought $354.7m of atom from the US betwixt May 2024 and April 2025, according to the commercialized information probe group, Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).

Japanese atom imports from the US person successful information accrued since the terms of locally grown atom has surged. An utmost heatwave successful 2023 yielded a substandard atom crop, starring to producers and manufacturers stockpiling atom that was disposable by aboriginal 2024.

Additionally, an earthquake deed confederate Japan connected August 8, 2024, which led to consumers stockpiling atom and triggering a atom shortage. The authorities has decided to merchandise atom from its ain exigency stockpile.

Figures from the Japan Automobile Importers Association besides amusement that Japan imported 14,724 US rider vehicles worthy $1.04bn successful 2024.

This is simply a acold outcry from income of Japanese cars to the US, however. In 2023, for example, Japan exported cars worthy $41bn to the US portion importing cars worthy conscionable $1.25bn from the US, according to the OEC.

US President Donald Trump meets with Japan’s main commercialized negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, and his delegation successful the Oval Office of the White House successful Washington, DC, connected April 16, 2025 [Molly Riley/Handout via Reuters]

Why other person commercialized talks betwixt Japan and the US stalled?

The Japanese authorities besides faces home pressures with a nationalist precocious location predetermination connected June 20. The workplace assemblage has traditionally been a important voting bloc for Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party.

Trade negotiator Akazawa said connected Tuesday that Japan would not sacrifice its agriculture assemblage during commercialized talks with the US.

“I person repeatedly stated that agriculture is the instauration of the nation. In negotiations with the United States, our stance remains unchanged: we volition not prosecute successful talks that would sacrifice the cultivation sector,” Akazawa told a media conference.

Ishiba is besides opposed to immoderate commercialized woody with Trump which does not rotation backmost tariffs connected cars.

“Japan is antithetic from different countries arsenic we are the largest capitalist successful the United States, creating jobs,” Ishiba said connected Wednesday during a statement with absorption leaders. “With our basal absorption being connected concern alternatively than tariffs, we’ll proceed to support our nationalist interest.”

Furthermore, Japan is successful a stronger presumption than galore different countries arsenic it is the largest overseas holder of US debt. According to caller reports, Japan holds much than $1 trillion successful US Treasury securities, which whitethorn springiness it leverage successful commercialized talks.

Has Japan responded to Trump’s menace of higher tariffs?

Japan has truthful acold declined to remark connected this.

During a quality league successful Tokyo connected Wednesday, Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki said: “We are alert of what President Trump said, but we don’t remark connected each remark made by US authorities officials.”

How overmuch does Japan’s system beryllium connected US exports?

While Japan does clasp ample amounts of US debt, it is much reliant connected the US for exports than the different mode around. The US is Japan’s largest export market, accounting for 19.1 percent of full Japanese exports successful 2023, according to the OEC.

Only 4.03 percent of US exports went to Japan successful 2023. In that year, the US exported $7.7bn worthy of petroleum state to Japan.