Scepticism and hope for end to Gaza war before Trump-Netanyahu meeting

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting the United States connected Monday, a sojourn analysts expect volition absorption connected celebrating Israel and the US’s self-anointed triumph against Iran and discussing a connection for a ceasefire successful Israel’s warfare connected Gaza.

This is the 3rd clip this twelvemonth Netanyahu volition beryllium gathering US President Donald Trump, who claims the US and Israel “obliterated” Iran’s atomic programme during a 12-day warfare and that helium would resume bombing Iran if it restarts atomic activities.

Last week, Trump said Israel had agreed to conditions for a 60-day ceasefire successful Gaza, which would let each parties to enactment towards an extremity to Israel’s 21-month-long warfare connected the besieged enclave.

On July 4, Hamas gave a “positive” response to Qatari and Egyptian mediators astir the latest ceasefire proposal.

Is a ceasefire realistic?

On Friday, aft Hamas’s effect to the proposal, Trump said determination could beryllium a “deal adjacent week” and promised to beryllium “very firm” with Netanyahu to guarantee a ceasefire.

Israel has since said that Hamas has requested changes to the connection that it recovered “unacceptable”, but that Israeli negotiators would beryllium going to Qatar connected Sunday to sermon the proposal.

According to a leaked transcript of the woody obtained by Al Jazeera, the ceasefire entails a 60-day intermission successful hostilities and a phased merchandise of immoderate of the 58 Israeli captives held successful Gaza since a Hamas-led onslaught connected Israel connected October 7, 2023.

Israel’s warfare connected Gaza has killed astatine slightest 57,000 people, mostly women and children, successful what United Nations experts, ineligible scholars and quality rights groups picture arsenic a genocide against Palestinians.

Many experts told Al Jazeera that they are not optimistic a impermanent ceasefire volition pb to a imperishable extremity to the war.

“The mode [the ceasefire talks] are being framed leaves maine sceptical,” said Omar Rahman, an adept connected Israel-Palestine with the Middle East Council for Global Affairs.

Rahman added that helium believes Trump was focused connected getting the Israeli captives released, but not connected ending the warfare and the suffering of the radical of Gaza.

Trump previously promised an extremity to the war aft pushing for a ceasefire conscionable days earlier helium became president successful January.

However, 2 months later, Trump did thing erstwhile Israel unilaterally resumed its attacks connected Gaza, sidesplitting thousands much people.

Mairav Zonszein, an adept connected Israel-Palestine for the International Crisis Group, said that could hap again.

Relatives of Palestinians killed successful the Israeli onslaught connected Khan Younis person the bodies from Nasser Hospital for funerals, successful Gaza City, July 4, 2025 [Abdallah F.s. Alattar/Anadolu Agency]

“It each rests connected Trump and the US to prolong existent unit [on Netanyahu], but that is highly doubtful,” she told Al Jazeera.

“I’m optimistic determination could beryllium immoderate benignant of ceasefire, but longevity and the presumption are highly questionable,” Zonszein said.

“It’s besides imaginable we could spot a ceasefire that does not past due to the fact that … Israel inactive each truthful often conscionable bombs thing without repercussions [in Gaza],” she added.

Yaser al-Banna, a Palestinian writer successful Gaza, said galore successful the Strip are divided implicit whether a ceasefire volition extremity the war. While everyone prays it will, immoderate radical cannot ideate Netanyahu sticking to a deal.

Netanyahu insists that the warfare volition not extremity without a “total victory” implicit Hamas, a conception helium has not defined.

“About fractional the radical successful Gaza are precise pessimistic… The different fractional believes this clip could beryllium antithetic owed to shared interests among Israel, the Palestinians, Arab states and the US to extremity this war,” helium said.

Glory and pragmatism

Many analysts judge that Trump is driven by his tendency to onslaught grandiose deals successful bid to boast astir his achievements successful planetary affairs.

On Monday, helium is apt to instrumentality recognition for ostensibly dismantling Iran’s atomic programme – adjacent though that whitethorn not beryllium existent – and explicit his tendency to retrieve the remainder of the Israeli captives successful Gaza.

He besides wants to get the “Gaza issue” retired of the mode to prosecute much normalisation deals betwixt Israel and neighbouring Arab states, said Khaled Elgindy, an adept connected Israel-Palestine and a prof of Arab Studies astatine Georgetown University successful Washington, DC.

“Trump wants to beryllium capable to accidental that helium got backmost the Israeli hostages… and got a Palestinian state… Then helium tin telephone himself maestro of the universe, but getting those things is overmuch harder than helium thinks,” Elgindy told Al Jazeera.

It’s unclear whether Netanyahu’s governmental calculations align with Trump’s ambitions.

Israel’s adjacent parliamentary elections person to instrumentality spot earlier October 2026, and Netanyahu could spell to the polls sooner, riding connected a apt question of popularity if helium succeeds successful returning the remaining captives.

Like Trump, helium would besides tout what helium presumption a stunning triumph against Iran to the Israeli public.

Those considerations are important due to the fact that it is apt that Netanyahu’s frail far-right coalition, held unneurotic by unit to prolong the warfare connected Gaza, would illness if a imperishable ceasefire is reached, said Hugh Lovatt, an adept connected Israel-Palestine with the European Council connected Foreign Relations.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends his proceedings connected corruption charges astatine the territory tribunal successful Tel Aviv, Israel, March 12, 2025 [ Yair Sagi/ Reuters]

“At the extremity of [the possible] 60-day ceasefire, [Netanyahu] could spell to elections by committing to a afloat extremity to the warfare and illness his coalition; oregon helium could spell backmost to warfare to support his [far-right] conjugation unneurotic should helium justice the clip not close for elections,” helium told Al Jazeera.

A possible, astir unfathomable, outcome

Staying successful bureau is peculiarly important for Israel’s longest-serving premier minister, who faces respective home ineligible charges of fraud and bribery.

During his much-anticipated gathering with Trump, experts expect them to sermon Netanyahu’s trial, which galore judge plays a ample relation successful dictating his governmental calculations.

Netanyahu’s presumption arsenic premier curate has enabled him to undermine the Israeli judicial strategy by appointing loyalists to precocious courts and delaying tribunal hearings – an power helium would suffer if his conjugation unravels.

Trump is acutely alert of Netanyahu’s dilemma.

On June 25, he called connected Israel to driblet the charges against Netanyahu, referring to the proceedings arsenic a “witch hunt”.Trump’s comments suggest that helium is trying to unit Netanyahu’s opponents to contented a pardon successful speech for ending the warfare connected Gaza, said Georgetown’s Elgindy.

Elgindy referenced Trump’s caller societal media station wherever helium alluded to suspending subject assistance to Israel unless charges against Netanyahu were dropped.

“The United States of America spends Billions of Dollars a year, acold much than immoderate different Nation, protecting and supporting Israel. We are not going to basal for this,” Trump wrote connected June 28.

That would beryllium a large – astir unfathomable – determination to look retired of the gathering betwixt Trump and Netanyahu, said Elgindy.

“I don’t spot him pursuing through, but this is simply a emblematic [threat] that Trump would make,”  helium told Al Jazeera.  “His [modus operandi] is to blackmail and coerce. That is his mentation of diplomacy.”

Elgindy added that it was distressing that Trump would endanger to chopped subject assistance to Israel to support Netanyahu and not beleaguered, starving Palestinians successful Gaza.

The determination to pardon Netanyahu lies with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, but specified a determination would beryllium unprecedented, and the president has not indicated that helium plans to bash so.

Analysts judge Herzog whitethorn beryllium consenting to pardon Netanyahu if helium agrees to exit governmental life, but not simply to unafraid a ceasefire.

Zonszein, from Crisis Group, adds that determination are lawyers and justices successful Israel who person warned “for years” that it is successful the public’s involvement to scope a plea bargain with Netanyahu owed to the powerfulness helium holds implicit the country.

Their lone information is for Netanyahu to hold to permission politics.

“I don’t deliberation that is thing Netanyahu is considering. If helium was consenting to permission governmental life, past helium could person already negotiated a plea bargain,” she told Al Jazeera.