Europe is trying to woo Southeast Asia — but it won’t win it over the U.S. or China

European leaders are looking to Southeast Asia with renewed involvement amid Washington's assertive tariff agenda, but experts pass that the authorities of determination commercialized ties makes it challenging to disrupt the U.S. oregon China's hold.

Southeast Asia is successful a predicament: its state China is ramping up its advances successful the South China Sea, with state-of-the-art Chinese bomber planes. spotted successful the disputed Paracel Islands successful the portion precocious past period arsenic tensions flare with the Philippines. Meanwhile, its different ally, the U.S., hangs the menace of tariffs implicit the world, with uncertainty mounting arsenic a 90-day reprieve is set to expire successful July.

Europe is present seizing the accidental to aboveground arsenic an alternate state to emerging Asian nations, with French President Emmanuel Macron calling for stronger ties betwixt the blocs astatine the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue that wrapped up earlier this month.

Southeast Asia brings Europe the accidental to entree different marketplace for its defence sector, according to Bob Herrera-Lim, managing manager astatine Teneo. Ifri's Pajon adds that the portion could besides supply Europe a diversified proviso concatenation to hedge against economical reliance connected the U.S. oregon China and important earthy worldly reserves indispensable for the EU's greenish and integer transition.

Europe is ambitious successful its hopes for emerging Asia, but analysts nevertheless uncertainty it tin overtake the U.S. oregon China's power successful the region.

"Europe, connected its own, tin connection Southeast Asia a invaluable enactment to hedge against the risks of overdependence connected either China oregon the United States," Céline Pajon, caput of Japan and Indo-Pacific Research astatine Ifri's Center for Asian Studies, told CNBC by email.

While ties span much than fractional a century, Southeast Asian and European relations person been mired successful assorted challenges that Teneo's Herrera-Lim attributes to factors specified arsenic geographic region and diverging views implicit authorities oregon the environment.

In his keynote code astatine the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, Macron called for stronger ties betwixt Europe and the Indo-Pacific's "new peculiar relationship." He stressed that some blocs are facing the "potential erosion of long-time alliances" and the menace of countries vying for power oregon resorting to force, drafting nonstop parallels betwixt China's advances successful the South-China Sea and Russia's penetration of Ukraine. 

Yet akin experiences unsocial mightiness not beryllium capable to sway emerging Asia distant from the U.S. oregon China, according to Herrera-Lim.

"Form follows relation successful Southeast Asia," helium told CNBC successful a call, "Relationships are built connected economical ties successful Southeast Asia, much than thing else."

While the EU has commercialized ties with Singapore and Vietnam, talks for different bilateral deals oregon an EU-ASEAN wide escaped commercialized agreements (FTA) person been stalled for years, and Ifri's Pajon said that the bloc "still has advancement to make" successful expanding its beingness and concern successful the region.

Meanwhile, Beijing remains the Southeast Asia's largest trading spouse since 2009, with full goods successful commercialized reaching $982.3 cardinal successful 2024. The U.S. follows down successful 2nd place, with an estimated $476.8 cardinal goods successful commercialized past year. The EU trails down successful 3rd place, with astir 258.7 billion euros ($299.7 billion) of goods successful commercialized implicit the aforesaid period.

Without immoderate meaningful betterment oregon the committedness of accrued commercialized successful the future, Herrera-Lim said that it volition beryllium hard for Europe to vie against the bloc's established trading partners. 

"If successful the adjacent week oregon adjacent month, China says, 'We're doing reforms truthful that home markets are opened up successful China for Southeast Asian goods,' [then] Southeast Asian countries would enactment up to get entree to the Chinese market. Independent of their authorities astir galore of these issues," helium said.

While Europe mightiness not beryllium capable to regenerate the U.S. oregon China successful emerging Asia, it tin nevertheless connection transparent, reliable partnerships that aren't astir zero-sum competition, Lizza Bomassi Research Analyst astatine the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), told CNBC by email.

"Europe's worth proposition lies successful being a reliable spouse successful captious areas similar vigor security, greenish infrastructure, and integer governance," she said, "These are areas wherever Southeast Asian countries privation to diversify and physique resilience, particularly fixed concerns astir overdependence."

Ifri's Pajon said that strengthening ties with Europe would let Southeast Asia to diversify its strategical partnerships and heighten their capableness to defy hegemonic pressures.

"The beingness of much partners, including Europe, raises the diplomatic and reputational costs for China to escalate [territorial disputes successful the region], peculiarly fixed Beijing's accent connected a 'peaceful rise'," Bomassi said. 

"In this context, the EU-ASEAN concern isn't astir hard subject deterrence, but it serves arsenic a important symbolic defence mechanism. It reinforces that Southeast Asia isn't isolated and has aggregate partners, making the portion much resilient to coercion," she added.