Iran-Israel conflict raises alarm in Pakistan amid fears over own security

Islamabad, Pakistan – In January 2024, Pakistan and Iran fired missiles into each other’s territory successful a little subject escalation betwixt the neighbours.

Yet 17 months later, aft Israel attacked Iran with strikes connected the latter’s atomic facilities, and assassinated aggregate Iranian generals and atomic scientists, Pakistan was speedy to condemn the Israeli action.

Islamabad described the Israeli strikes arsenic violations of Iran’s territorial sovereignty and labelled them “blatant provocations”.

“The planetary assemblage and the United Nations carnivore work to uphold planetary law, halt this aggression instantly and clasp the aggressor accountable for its actions,” Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said successful a statement connected June 13.

As Israeli attacks connected Iran, and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, participate their sixth day, the deepening struggle is sparking fears successful Islamabad, accidental analysts, rooted successful its analyzable ties with Tehran and the adjacent greater unease astatine the imaginable of the Israeli military’s aerial power extending adjacent to the Pakistani border.

The quality toll from the spiralling Israel-Iran struggle is growing. Israel’s attacks connected Iran person already led to much than 220 deaths, with much than a 1000 radical injured. In retaliation, Iran has launched hundreds of missiles into Israeli territory, resulting successful much than 20 deaths and extended spot damage.

While Pakistan, which shares a 905km (562-mile) borderline with Iran via its southwestern state of Balochistan, has voiced staunch enactment for Tehran, it has besides closed 5 borderline crossings successful Balochistan from June 15.

More than 500 Pakistani nationals, chiefly pilgrims and students, person returned from Iran successful caller days.

“On Monday, we had 45 students who were pursuing degrees successful assorted Iranian institutions instrumentality to Pakistan. Almost 500 pilgrims besides came backmost via the Taftan borderline crossing,” the adjunct commissioner for Taftan, Naeem Ahmed, told Al Jazeera.

Taftan is simply a borderline municipality neighbouring Iran, situated successful the Chaghi territory successful Balochistan, which is celebrated for its hills wherever Pakistan conducted its atomic tests successful 1998, arsenic good arsenic the Reko Diq and Saindak mines known for their golden and copper deposits.

At the bosom of the determination to effort to efficaciously seal the borderline is Pakistan’s interest astir information successful Balochistan, which, successful turn, is influenced by its ties with Iran, accidental experts.

A analyzable history

Pakistan and Iran person some accused each different of harbouring equipped groups liable for cross-border attacks connected their territories.

The astir caller flare-up occurred successful January 2024, erstwhile Iran launched missile strikes into Pakistan’s Balochistan province, claiming to people the separatist radical Jaish al-Adl.

Pakistan retaliated wrong 24 hours, striking what it said were hideouts of Baloch separatists wrong Iranian territory.

The neighbours patched up aft that little escalation, and during Pakistan’s little subject struggle with India successful May, Iran studiously avoided taking sides.

On Monday, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ishaq Dar addressed Parliament, emphasising however Pakistan had been speaking with Iran and suggesting that Islamabad was consenting to play a diplomatic relation to assistance broker an extremity to the subject hostilities betwixt Iran and Israel.

“Iran’s overseas curate [Abbas Araghchi] told maine that if Israel does not transportation retired different attack, they are prepared to instrumentality to the negotiating table,” Dar said. “We person conveyed this connection to different countries, that determination is inactive clip to halt Israel and bring Iran backmost to talks.”.

Minister of State for Interior Talal Chaudhry told Al Jazeera that different nations needed to bash much to propulsion for a ceasefire.

“We judge we are playing our role, but the satellite indispensable besides bash its duty. Syria, Libya, Iraq – wars devastated them. It adjacent led to the emergence of ISIS [ISIL]. We anticipation this is not repeated,” helium added.

Fahd Humayun, adjunct prof of governmental subject astatine Tufts University and a visiting probe student astatine Stanford, said that immoderate Pakistani bid to diplomatically propulsion for bid would beryllium helped by the information that the medication of President Donald Trump successful the United States is also, officially astatine least, arguing for negotiations alternatively than war.

But Umer Karim, a Middle East researcher astatine the University of Birmingham, suggested that for each the nationalist rhetoric, Pakistan would beryllium cautious astir enmeshing itself excessively profoundly successful the struggle astatine a clip erstwhile it is trying to rebuild bridges with the US, Israel’s closest ally.

“I uncertainty Pakistan has the capableness oregon the volition to mediate successful this conflict, but it decidedly wants it to upwind down arsenic soon arsenic possible,” helium said.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (centre) visited Tehran successful May, wherever helium met Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (right) and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (left) [Handout via Prime Minister’s Office]

Balochistan and information concerns

Pakistan’s top concern, according to observers, is the imaginable fallout successful Balochistan, a resource-rich but restive province. Rich successful oil, gas, coal, golden and copper, Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest state by country but smallest by population, location to astir 15 cardinal people.

Since 1947, Balochistan has experienced astatine slightest 5 rebellion movements, the latest opening successful the aboriginal 2000s. Rebel groups person demanded a greater stock of section resources oregon outright independence, prompting decades of subject crackdowns.

The state besides hosts the strategical Gwadar port, cardinal to the $62bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), linking occidental China to the Arabian Sea.

Baloch nationalists impeach the authorities of exploiting resources portion neglecting section development, heightening secessionist and separatist sentiments. Baloch secessionist groups connected some sides of the border, peculiarly the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLA), person been waging a rebellion successful Pakistan to question independence.

“There is simply a large interest wrong Pakistan that successful lawsuit the warfare escalates, members of equipped groups specified arsenic BLA and BLF, galore of whom unrecorded successful Iran’s borderline areas, mightiness effort and question extortion wrong Pakistan by crossing the precise porous boundaries shared by the 2 countries,” Abdul Basit, a probe chap astatine the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies successful Singapore, told Al Jazeera.

“Thus, Pakistan had to unopen down the crossing successful an effort to power the influx. It remains to beryllium seen whether they tin successfully bash that, but astatine slightest this is their objective.”

Worries astir an Afghanistan redux

Since the Soviet penetration of Afghanistan successful 1979, waves of Afghan refugees person sought structure successful Pakistan. The latest wide introduction occurred aft the Taliban took implicit Kabul successful August 2021. At their peak, determination were adjacent to 4 cardinal Afghans surviving successful the country.

In 2023, however, Pakistan launched a campaign to nonstop the refugees backmost to Afghanistan. According to authorities estimates, adjacent to a cardinal of them person been expelled truthful far. Pakistan has cited rising incidents of equipped unit successful the country, which it blames connected groups that it says find structure successful Afghanistan, arsenic a cardinal justification for its decision. The Taliban cull the proposition that they let anti-Pakistan equipped groups sanctuary connected Afghan territory.

Basit said Pakistan would apt privation to debar immoderate repetition of what happened with Afghan refugees.

“With specified a agelong borderline [with Iran], and a past of heavy transportation betwixt radical of some sides, it is not retired of realm of anticipation that it was this origin which factored successful Pakistan’s determination to adjacent the border,” helium added.

Fears of Israeli aerial superiority

Baloch equipped groups and the imaginable of a exile influx are not the lone concerns apt worrying Pakistan, accidental experts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that his aerial unit has power implicit Tehran’s skies. And portion some Israel and Iran proceed to onslaught each other’s territory, Pakistan, which does not recognise Israel and views it arsenic a sworn enemy, volition not privation Israeli power implicit the Iranian airspace to turn and creep towards the Iran-Pakistan border.

“Pakistan is besides averse to Israel achieving implicit aerial superiority and power of Iranian airspace, arsenic it would upend the existent information presumption quo connected Pakistan’s occidental flank,” Karim, the University of Birmingham scholar, told Al Jazeera.

Break from the past

Security expert Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, based successful Islamabad, noted that Pakistan has historically sided with the US successful determination wars, including successful Afghanistan, but whitethorn hesitate this time.

A bulk Sunni nation, Pakistan inactive boasts a important Shia colonisation – much than 15 percent of its colonisation of 250 million.

“Pakistan has already dealt with sectarian issues, and openly supporting subject enactment against [Shia-majority] Iran could spark superior blowback,” helium said.