You would think Starmer's party conference speech would be a piece of cake - not quite | Adam Boulton

Even the Iron Lady flinched at the prospect of delivering her leader's speech to the annual party conference.

Her speech writer Ronald Millar recalled leaning forward moments before Margaret Thatcher went to the rostrum with words of encouragement. "Piece of cake, prime minister," he whispered, only to be rebuffed with "not now Ronnie, I'm about to deliver my speech".

The Liberal Democrats only came third in the general election but Sir Ed Davey's conference in Brighton last week was one long triumphal rally, complete with 72 Lib Dem MPs and an ABBA singalong. Surely this Labour conference in Liverpool is set to be an even greater celebration.

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Sir Keir Starmer has just delivered a stunning victory that catapulted Labour straight into government after 14 years of opposition. He is in illustrious company - not many leaders of either main party have done that. There have been 21 in the past 60 years but only five - Harold Wilson, Ted Heath, Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, and David Cameron - have faced their first conference as prime minister fresh from turning the tables decisively against their political foes.

For all the habitual nervousness of party leaders about their big speech, Sir Keir's first set-piece speech as prime minister to his party conference this week in Liverpool really might have been expected to be "a piece of cake". He has not been so lucky. Sir Keir is under pressure within his party and with the public before he opens his mouth.

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Just 80 days into office, there is no honeymoon for Labour. The leader already has ground to make up. Sir Keir and his allies have devoted their energies to blaming the last government successfully for the rundown state of nation. The prime minister has emphasised that things will get worse before they get better so determinedly that many of his party believe there is an urgent need to lift the gloom.

Things are not going well. Labour MPs are in sullen mood having been whipped to vote for continued restrictions of child benefit and to abolish winter fuel payments for most pensioners. Sir Keir is under personal attack for being parliament's biggest taker of gifts and freebies including designer spectacles, clothes for his wife and an executive box at Arsenal. Those working most closely with the prime minister, supposedly behind the scenes, are generating headlines by purportedly briefing viciously against each other.

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Both Labour and Sir Keir's popularity have gone down in opinion polls. In raw electoral terms this may not matter very much at the moment. Neither Labour nor Sir Keir were much liked at the election, but 33.7% of the votes gave them a practically impregnable 63% of the MPs at Westminster, thanks to the electoral system and competition between numerous other parties. That should mean that the party will stay securely in power for the next four years come what may.

Activists are already asking themselves what will happen then. Just to stay in power, they calculate that Labour is bound to need more solid support than it polled in July, not less. They want Sir Keir to lift the depression and give his audiences some hope for better times in his keynote address at 2pm on Tuesday. Ellie Reeves MP, the Labour Party chair, and the more bubbly sister of Chancellor Rachel Reeves, will try to set the tone for "hope" in her remarks at the official opening of the conference on Sunday.

Sir Keir could look for inspiration from previous election winners at conference.

Like Sir Keir last week, Harold Wilson had just returned from the glamour of the White House visiting Lyndon Johnson. He paraphrased flatly from the assassinated John F Kennedy's inaugural address: "Whatever our role in industry, our approach must be not what we can take out of the national pool, but what we can put into it." Neither Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris have yet come up with a resounding soundbite worth borrowing. Besides, Sir Keir is unlikely to be as bold, and undiplomatic, as the Lib Dem leader and say that he can't wait for Ms Harris to beat Mr Trump.

Several other newly victorious prime ministers have used the occasion to give their party and the country a pep talk about what was expected from them. In 1970 Ted Heath talked about the long task of laying the foundations for future Conservative governments. In 1979, Mrs Thatcher's closing words were: "You gave us your trust. Be patient. We shall not betray that trust." On recent form Sir Keir will find it easy to slip into this stern mode.

Unlike John Major, or all the Tory prime ministers since Theresa May, Sir Keir does not have to explain away the mistakes made by his own party in government. Mr Major's victory in 1992 kept the Conservatives in power only for the economy to be hit months later when the pound crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Mr Major opted for rueful humour: "Well it hasn't exactly been a dull week, has it?... Politics is a rough, tough, unpredictable business - and troubles come in bunches." Sir Keir is not a man who finds it easy to apologise, to charm or to ask for sympathy.

He also has yet to attempt the upbeat optimism of Tony Blair, Labour's last election winner. His speech in Brighton in 1997 was one happy boast. "I am proud, privileged to stand before you... I want to set an ambitious cause for this country. To be nothing less than the model 21st Century nation, a beacon to the world."

Sir Keir is likely to be happier following David Cameron in 2010 and Boris Johnson in 2019. Both spent much of their time putting the boot into the Labour Party they had just defeated. He will have to tread carefully however, especially since he is refusing to apologise for the gifts he is taking. He would be bold indeed to repeat the charge he made in his first full conference speech as Labour leader: "The one thing about Boris Johnson that offends everything I stand for is his assumption that the rules don't apply to him."

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Nobody should expect a change of direction from the prime minister at conference from the spending and tax rises due to be announced by Ms Reeves in her budget on 30 October.

For now the government's plans to generate hope and growth hang on organisational changes which won't cost the Treasury much, such as partial rail renationalisation, the private sector building onshore wind, renters reform, workers' rights, Ofsted reform, a planning overhaul and booting out hereditary lords.

In a round of pre-conference interviews, Sir Keir gave previews of the core argument he is likely to make in his speech. Things are tough now and spending cuts are being made, but that is like "stripping down and doing the difficult work first", he says, when you are "redoing a house".

Anyone who has tried a home renovation will know that they take years and always much longer than predicted. There will be no jam on Tuesday in Sir Keir's leader's speech, and certainly no piece of cake.