With the undeclared invasion of Lebanon, has Netanyahu already won?

After nearly a year of political division, popular protest and international isolation, Israel’s attacks on Lebanon appear to have given a second wind of sorts to the rule of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed more than 2,000 people and displaced an estimated million, coming after the detonation of thousands of booby-trapped communication devices belonging to the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

The detonations in late September ignited a groundswell of support within Israel for the embattled prime minister and his right-wing Likud party that only increased when a second front on Lebanon was opened and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated a few days later.

However, while Netanyahu may be enjoying the sunlight of his popular resurgence, his political critics silenced, and the entry of former political adversary Gideon Saar into his cabinet, observers have pointed to storm clouds that appear to be returning to the prime minister’s horizon.

How divided were Israeli politics?

Very.

Since forming his emergency war coalition cabinet after the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, Netanyahu found himself locked in an endless game of weighing how many Knesset seats his supporters had against potential policy decisions.

One of the more serious reversals to face Netanyahu was the resignation from Israel’s inner war cabinet of his most significant political rival, Benny Gantz. The latter quit in June, taking with him eight Knesset seats, enough to dent but not destroy the prime minister’s majority.

Gantz’s reasons for resigning were well-known and centred on Netanyahu’s refusal to plan for the “day after” the conflict in Gaza – a point that remains unaddressed – or to secure a deal that would bring the captives taken by Palestinian fighters during the October 7 attack home.

However, despite his past opposition, on news of Nasrallah’s killing, Gantz took to Twitter to celebrate what he termed a “watershed moment” and “a matter of justice”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, and Benny Gantz [AP Photo] (AP Photo)

More dramatically, one of Netanyahu’s fiercest critics, hawkish opposition figure Gideon Saar, returned to the coalition cabinet, bringing with him the four seats needed to boost the government’s hold on parliament and provide a counterweight to the effective veto enjoyed by far-right ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

How unpopular was Netanyahu?

Quite a bit.

In October 2023, shortly after the surprise Hamas-led attack on Israel for which many held Netanyahu at least partly responsible, a poll by Hebrew-language newspaper Maariv put the prime minister’s approval rating at just 29 percent, with 48 percent of respondents preferring his archrival, Gantz.

A poll by the newspaper at around the same time showed that 80 percent of Israelis wanted to see Netanyahu take public accountability for his failings on October 7.

Netanyahu’s subsequent management of the war proved no more popular.

In April, months of protest culminated in tens of thousands of protesters cramming the streets of Jerusalem, calling for Netanyahu’s removal and a deal to free the captives.

In contrast, a poll by Israeli Channel 12 News after Nasrallah’s killing showed that 38 percent of respondents supported the prime minister, ahead of opposition leader Lapid’s 27 percent.

So, Netanyahu’s now unstoppable?

Not really.

“People, many of whom work for Western newspapers, are saying these polls mean Netanyahu’s on the crest of a wave. He isn’t,” former Israeli ambassador and long-term Netanyahu critic Alon Pinkas told Al Jazeera.

“He received a surge in popularity after the pager attacks and Nasrallah’s killing but that was brief. Things are now returning to normal,” he said, pointing to what he described as Netanyahu’s increasingly “messianic” behaviour over the period since.

“I mean, he was recently hosting a video calling for the Lebanese people to rise up, fight Hezbollah and enact regime change. That’s weird,” he said.

Likewise, the wave of popularity during the initial stages of elation after attacking one of the country’s long-term foes, Hezbollah, also looks to be faltering.

However, it is domestic concerns and the fate of the remaining Israeli captives in Gaza that are dulling the prime minister’s new glow.

A few days ago, 130 of Israel’s reservists and conscripts refused to serve if Netanyahu failed to reach a deal to return the captives.

The families of captives held in Gaza hold a silent protest to mark one year since the October 7 attack led by Hamas during which their loved ones were taken captive, in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 7, 2024. [Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters] (Reuters)

Protests against Netanyahu have also returned since Nasrallah’s killing, with crowds taking to the streets of Tel Aviv on Saturday to call upon the prime minister once more to take action that might see the release of the estimated 101 captives still held in Gaza.

Critically, with no public plan and war on two fronts, Netanyahu is going to need all the public support he can muster.