Will US sanctions make any difference to Pakistan’s missiles programme?

Islamabad, Pakistan – The United States government has announced a new round of sanctions targeting a Pakistan company and several Chinese “entities and one individual” for supplying equipment and technology for what it claims is the development of ballistic missiles in Pakistan.

Thursday’s announcement marks the sixth round of such sanctions to be levied by the US on Chinese and Pakistani companies since November 2021. Under these sanctions, the US-based assets of those named can be frozen, and US citizens or anyone within (or transiting) the US are banned from doing business with any group or person named.

The sanctions name China-based firms Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Co, Universal Enterprise and Xi’an Longde Technology Development Co, as well as Pakistan-based Innovative Equipment and a Chinese national, for “knowingly transferring equipment under missile technology restrictions”, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

According to the US, the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry (RIAMB) has collaborated with Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC), which Washington believes is involved in developing long-range ballistic missiles for Pakistan.

“The United States will continue to act against proliferation and associated procurement activities of concern, wherever they occur,” the spokesperson said. The US says it uses sanctions to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), particularly long-range weapons.

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington, said: “China firmly opposes unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction that have no basis in international law or authorisation of the UN Security Council.”

Pakistan’s foreign ministry has yet to comment on the latest sanctions, and questions sent to the ministry by Al Jazeera were unanswered.

Missile development continues

The most recent round of sanctions before this one, was announced in April 2024 when Washington blacklisted four companies from Belarus and China for supplying missile-applicable items to Pakistan’s long-range missile programme.

In response to those sanctions, Pakistan’s foreign ministry argued they had been imposed “without any evidence whatsoever” of foreign companies supplying its ballistic missiles programme.

“We reject the political use of export controls,” Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, the foreign office spokesperson said in a statement in April, adding that some countries appear to enjoy exemptions from “non-proliferation” controls. It is understood that this refers to increasing cooperation between the US and the Indian defence sector.

Despite these measures, Pakistan’s missile development continues at an accelerated pace, experts say.

Tughral Yamin, a former military official and senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies Islamabad (IPSI), suggested the sanctions may be more of a tactic by the US to exert pressure on China.

However, he expressed doubt over their effectiveness. “Pakistan’s missile programme has developed to a point where such repeated sanctions will not hamper our progress. We are far beyond that,” he told Al Jazeera.

Pakistan has maintained a robust missile programme for decades and has also developed nuclear warheads.

It is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), an informal political understanding among 35 states seeking to limit the proliferation of missiles and missile technology around the world.

Under its stated aims, MTCR says it seeks to limit the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) “by controlling exports of goods and technologies that could make a contribution to delivery systems (other than manned aircraft) for such weapons”.

Despite not being a member, Pakistan does follow its guidelines, said Yamin. He added that Pakistan has not sought to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) which can travel for more than 5,000km, and focuses its missile programme on deterrence against India, which became a member of the MTCR in 2015.

In Pakistan’s arsenal, the medium-range Shaheen-III, which can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads and can travel as far as 2,750km (1,708 miles), is the country’s longest-range missile.

“[Pakistan’s] missiles, whether conventional or nuclear tipped, serve as a deterrent against India, and this policy has been transparent and consistent, and the deterrence still holds,” he added.

‘Aggressive stance’

US concerns about Pakistan’s missile programme and possible collaboration with China date back to the early 1990s, said Muhammad Faisal, a foreign policy expert and researcher based in Sydney, Australia.

“But it was during President Obama’s second tenure onwards, where the US officials have been calling on Pakistan to exercise restraint in expanding ranges of its ballistic missiles beyond India’s geographical limits,” Faisal said.

With six rounds of sanctions imposed over the past four years, the Biden administration has taken a particularly aggressive stance in targeting entities it believes are supporting Pakistan’s missile programme, Faisal said.

“The nuclear issue remains an irritant in the US-Pakistan relationship and, despite broader improvement in Islamabad-Washington ties, such periodic sanctioning of entities sends a message that the US will continue to deploy both carrots and sticks in its engagement with Pakistan,” he added.