Will Patriots promised by Trump boost Ukraine’s defence against Russia?

Kyiv, Ukraine – Heavy thuds that lucifer accelerated hip-hop beats capable the nighttime aerial erstwhile MIM-104 Patriots, aerial defence systems made successful the United States, get to work.

Each Patriot surface-to-air launcher tin sprout up to 32 missiles wrong seconds – and deed Russian ballistic missiles closing successful connected their targets.

The missiles alert astatine supersonic speeds, and the collision triggers a bright, split-second blast followed by a thunderous shock-wave.

“That’s the benignant of detonation that makes maine consciousness safe,” Ihor Lysenko, a 17-year-old successful the superior Kyiv told Al Jazeera. He believes that the “technology is beauteous reliable”.

The Patriots were developed successful the 1970s to down Soviet missiles. Kyiv archetypal received them successful April 2023 from Washington and respective of its Western European allies.

Within weeks, they had intercepted Russia’s Kinzhal (Dagger) intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are launched from combatant jets astatine much than 12km (7.5 miles) supra the ground.

The Kinzhals mostly alert successful the Earth’s stratosphere to support their speed, which, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, is 10 times faster than the velocity of sound, which helium said makes immoderate Western aerial defence strategy “useless”.

But successful the past 2 years, astir 10 Patriot systems successful Ukraine – the nonstop fig is simply a authorities concealed – stationed successful Kyiv and the confederate larboard of Odesa person downed dozens much Kinzhals – on with different cruise and ballistic missiles, including North Korean ones; combatant jets; helicopters; and onslaught drones.

The second is akin to hammering a nail with an physics microscope – a Patriot rocket is priced astatine respective cardinal dollars portion Russian drones outgo 100 times less.

The Patriots are, however, not 100 percent efficient.

During a precocious April onslaught connected Kyiv, a Russian rocket razed a two-storey flat building, sidesplitting 12 radical and wounding 87, gouging retired windows and damaging roofs successful dozens of buildings nearby.

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump announced that helium would proviso Kyiv with more Patriots – by selling them to Washington’s NATO allies who would walk them connected to Ukraine.

“We volition nonstop them Patriots, which they desperately need,” Trump told reporters. “Putin truly amazed a batch of people. He talks nice, and past helium bombs everybody successful the evening.”

On Monday, Trump specified the fig of systems – 17 – during a gathering with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

“It’s everything. It’s Patriots. It’s each of them. It’s a afloat complement with the batteries,” Trump said.

He referred to an unnamed Western federation that had the “17 Patriots acceptable to beryllium shipped”.

Days earlier, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin was acceptable to get further Patriot systems.

‘We request hundreds of interceptors’

The caller Patriots that volition beryllium deployed to ample Ukrainian cities volition decidedly little the lethality of Russian aerial raids, but won’t transverse immoderate “red lines” for Putin, a Kyiv-based expert said.

“Russia occasionally cried astir reddish lines erstwhile it came to long-range weaponry for strikes connected Russia,” Volodymyr Fesenko, caput of the Penta deliberation tank, told Al Jazeera. “There are nary reddish lines with Patriots.”

However, the new Patriots won’t lick Ukraine’s problems with Russian aerial raids.

“The occupation is not conscionable astir the Patriots,” Fesenko said. “We don’t conscionable request the Patriots to combat ballistic missiles. Now Russia’s main onslaught limb is drones. They origin astir of the damage.”

Most harm and deaths are caused by onslaught drones that alert successful swarms of hundreds astatine heights of up to 5km (3 miles) and cannot beryllium deed by Ukraine’s ain aerial defence systems oregon mobile aerial defence teams equipped with machineguns.

Ukraine needs up to 25 much Patriot systems to screen its cardinal municipality areas, according to Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, erstwhile lawman caput of the Ukrainian military’s General Staff.

While the details astir the caller Patriots’ accomplishment are unknown, immoderate observers said the intent of Trump’s pledge is clear.

“He does that to enactment his representation that has been tarnished domestically and internationally,” Romanenko told Al Jazeera.

And what Ukraine needs the astir is drone interceptors that tin alert up to 500 kilometres per hr (310 miles per hour) arsenic Moscow equips caller generations of its unmanned vehicles with pitchy engines, helium said.

“The quantity is what matters. If they motorboat much than 700 [drones per attack], if they are susceptible of upping it to 1,000, past we request hundreds of interceptors,” Romanenko said.

Moscow scrupulously analyses the routes of its drone swarms and often changes them to debar interception, truthful Kyiv needs airy planes with physics jamming, helicopters and aerial defence systems that tin down aerodynamic targets, helium said.

On Saturday, the Ukrainian aerial unit said the recently supplied, German-made Skynex aerial defence strategy changeable down six Russian-made Geran drones.

The Skynex has a 35mm automatic cannon that fires up to 1,000 rounds per infinitesimal and uses programmable ammunition that detonates adjacent its targets, releasing a unreality of projectiles.

However, determination are lone 2 Skynex systems successful Ukraine, and determination are nary details astir further supplies.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence has been dilatory to make drone interceptors truthful far, an adept said.

“Everything is connected an amateur level,” Andrey Pronin, 1 of the pioneers of Ukrainian drone warfare who runs a schoolhouse for drone pilots successful Kyiv, told Al Jazeera.

He said helium was portion of a squad that developed an interceptor drone susceptible of catching up to Russian loitering munitions.

But adjacent though the interceptor was battle-tested, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry didn’t amusement immoderate interest, helium said.

“The ministry is specified a hole. Things haven’t moved astatine all,” helium said.