Will Pakistan’s Imran Khan get out of jail after his wife’s release?

Islamabad, Pakistan – Hundreds of people gathered outside Bani Gala, the palatial mansion on the outskirts of Islamabad, on Thursday to welcome Bushra Bibi, the wife of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, following her release from jail after nine months.

Bibi, arrested in January, was granted bail on Wednesday in a case concerning the illegal sale of state gifts.

She travelled from Adiala Jail in Rawalpindi in a convoy of cars, with supporters throwing flowers on her vehicle.

Bibi and Khan were initially sentenced in January to 14 years in prison after being found guilty of selling state gifts worth more than 140 million rupees ($501,000), received during Khan’s tenure as prime minister, 2018-2022, from the Toshakhana, or state treasury.

The couple was separately also convicted in a case questioning the legality of their marriage, but they were acquitted in July. Shortly after, authorities filed an additional Toshakhana case, this time involving a jewellery set gifted to Bibi by the Saudi crown prince. The National Accountability Bureau has alleged that Khan and Bibi illegally kept the set and later sold it for more than $350,000.

Khan, a former cricketer and philanthropist, remains in jail and has denied all charges against him, accusing the government and the “establishment” of a targeted campaign to keep him imprisoned.

The “establishment” in Pakistan is a euphemism for the country’s powerful security forces, which have ruled directly for nearly 30 years and maintain political influence even under civilian governments.

Bibi’s release comes the same week Pakistan’s parliament passed a controversial constitutional amendment, giving the legislature more power to appoint top judges among other changes. Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has opposed the amendments and organised protests across the country.

PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan dismissed rumours of a deal with authorities to secure Bibi’s release in exchange for supporting the amendment.

“If we had to have a deal with them, Bibi would not have stayed behind bars for nine months, or Khan wouldn’t be behind bars for 16 months. She was kept in jail only to put pressure on Khan but God willing, now he will be released soon and it will be done on legal merit, not through any deal,” he told reporters outside the Adiala prison in Rawalpindi.

Khan, arrested in August last year, faces more than 150 cases, including charges of corruption, inciting violence, sedition, and leaking state secrets since his removal in April 2022 through a no-confidence vote.

Naeem Haider Panjutha, a member of Khan’s legal team, echoed Gohar Ali Khan’s optimism about the potential of imminent relief for Imran Khan.

“They faced the same charges, so there’s no reason for Khan to remain behind bars in this case. He has no pending convictions, and while some cases related to May 9 remain, we are hopeful of securing bail and his release,” Panjutha told Al Jazeera.

A convoy of vehicles carrying Bushra Bibi, the wife of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, moves after her release from Adiala jail in Rawalpindi on October 24 [Stringer/Reuters]

Khan was briefly detained on May 9 last year, triggering nationwide protests from PTI supporters. The demonstrations escalated – state buildings and military installations were attacked, resulting in thousands of arrests, although only about 100 faced military trials.

PTI’s Sayed Zulfi Bukhari, a close aide to Khan, also expressed optimism that the former prime minister could be released soon.

“He is illegally placed in prison just as his wife was. This release has nothing to do with any deal, but it is due to the perseverance of her lawyers in the court of law, and we will do the same for Imran Khan, as well as take to the streets in protest for his release,” Bukhari told Al Jazeera.

However, political analyst Zaigham Khan suggested that Bibi’s release might have been “politically calculated” to stoke tensions within the PTI.

While Khan, the undisputed leader of the PTI, is behind bars, other leaders representing sub-groups or factions have been jostling for influence.

“There is a power centre in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, led by the chief minister Ali Amin Gandapur. Then, there is another faction which looks up to the party’s secretary-general, Salman Akram Raja,” Zaigham Khan said.

However, “Bibi is very powerful in her own right, and Khan trusts her completely. Many in the party will naturally gravitate towards her,” the analyst told Al Jazeera, and noted that Imran Khan’s two sisters, who have been jailed since October following protests against the constitutional amendment, also head a group that is close to Khan.

Nor were analysts convinced that the government’s granting Bibi bail heralded Khan’s imminent release.

“There was no merit in the cases against Bibi. She had already received acquittal and bail in other cases and this one was also on weak grounds, so there was no point to keep her in jail,” political commentator Muneeb Farooq told Al Jazeera.

However, Farooq said that the government’s stance on Khan appears unchanged, leaving little hope for his release.

“The strategy seems to be to let Bibi go free, while maintaining the hardline policy on Khan unless there’s a significant shift that allows for his release,” he said.