Will Mexico’s President Sheinbaum depart from predecessor AMLO’s policies?

Monterrey, Mexico – Claudia Sheinbaum has taken office after a landslide presidential election victory that made her Mexico’s first female leader. Having received about 60 percent of the vote, Sheinbaum is poised to replicate the high levels of popularity her predecessor and mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, earned through policies primarily focused on reducing poverty and inequality.

It is not yet clear how Sheinbaum will use her power in the next six years, but she will inherit profound challenges, including a series of controversial constitutional reforms, organised crime and violence, and the task of governing for Mexicans.

Before her presidential candidacy, Sheinbaum, an environmental scientist, served as the secretary of the environment for Mexico City during Lopez Obrador’s tenure as mayor of the capital. She was also a member of the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Despite her expertise in climate change, the 62-year-old has remained loyal to Lopez Obrador and his pro-hydrocarbon energy policies.

In 2018, Sheinbaum became the first female mayor of Mexico City, a position she held until resigning last year to pursue her presidential aspirations.

Sheinbaum will seek to continue the more successful policies of Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO. He rose to power with the promise of a Cuarta Transformacion (Fourth Transformation, known as 4T in Spanish), which included ending corruption, reducing violence, and expanding social programmes. The improvement in poverty indicators is one of the outgoing government’s key achievements and proudest legacies.

From 2018 to 2022, more than five million Mexicans escaped poverty, according to the most recent report from the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL). This was partly driven by a significant increase in the general minimum daily wage, which rose from 88.15 pesos to 248.93 pesos (roughly $4.50 to $14.50 at current rate) during the same period.

Estefania Vela, director at Intersecta, a feminist nonprofit organisation dedicated to promoting public policies for equality, explained that during the AMLO administration, historically marginalised people felt seen and experienced a betterment in their lives. “They are not only symbolic achievements, but also material changes in the daily lives of millions of people,” Vela said.

Although poverty rates have decreased, substantial challenges remain for President Sheinbaum. Extreme poverty increased by 400,000 people, rising from 8.7 million to 9.1 million between 2018 to 2022. Additionally, CONEVAL warned about a growing lack of access to health and educational services. The number of people without access to health services jumped from 20.1 million to 50.4 million during the same period.

Marlene Solis, a social science professor at Colegio de la Frontera Norte (COLEF), argued that AMLO’s rise to power and popularity should be seen as a major success of a social movement – the 4T – that is often overlooked and that “set the minimum bases for a change” during this presidential term. “It’s not just him, but many people behind this project that has been in the works for at least 30 years,” Solis added.

Continuity, and changes

Sheinbaum has promised to continue AMLO’s signature policies, including a series of proposed constitutional changes that have already begun to be approved. Morena, the governing political party, and its allies now control Congress and a majority of the country’s 32 states.

In mid-September, AMLO, with the endorsement of Sheinbaum, enacted a controversial constitutional amendment that overhauls Mexico’s justice system. All judges, including members of the Supreme Court, will be elected by popular vote. The reform also introduces the figure of “faceless judges” to supposedly protect them from threats. However, international human rights organisations oppose this measure, arguing that it undermines a defendant’s right to a fair trial.

The reform sparked strikes and a wave of protests in major cities by law students and judicial sector employees. Critics contend that the bill will bolster the power of Morena and compromise the checks on presidential authority. Investors were also alarmed by the bill, and the peso – Mexico’s currency – fell in the days leading up to the vote.

Despite the opposition to the bill, Sheinbaum gave her immediate backing once it was passed, saying it would “strengthen the administration of justice” in Mexico.

Last week, Mexico also approved a reform that gives the military control of the civilian-led national guard. Other constitutional amendments awaiting approval include reforms that would reduce government transparency and expand automatic pretrial detention.

“When talking about [AMLO’s] legacy, I think we have to reconcile the two. A figure who represented the arrival of those who have been systematically forgotten, but who, at the same time, promoted reforms that may deepen more inequalities rather than resolve them,” said Vela.

Often portrayed as AMLO’s “puppet”, Sheinbaum ran her campaign under the slogan “continuity with change”. While many voters remain curious about the specifics of this change, Sheinbaum is expected to begin her term with a hybrid approach. She will likely continue AMLO’s policies, but also introduce new initiatives, particularly in areas affecting working-class women.

AMLO, who failed to address gender-based violence effectively, slashed funding for women’s shelters. He frequently mocked the feminist movement, accusing feminists of being manipulated by his adversaries. He also often portrayed himself as a victim, even claiming that the criticism he faced could be considered a form of gender-based violence.

That is likely to be one of the areas where Sheinbaum charts a different path to AMLO. While she will continue with controversial policies, including the militarisation of public security, which has been linked to increased risks for women and girls, her government has pledged to focus on addressing the inequalities affecting women.

Vela and Solis both referred to the new president’s promise to establish the “National Care System”, aimed at promoting women’s development and autonomy by supporting the unpaid care work traditionally carried out by women.

“This is a very important change if they can establish that care system,” said Solis. “One of the challenges we identified for many women is the lack of infrastructure and care services to support the care that the government is obligated to provide.”

Confrontations

Contradiction has marked the 4T. While a large part of the population felt seen and heard by the government for the first time, significant concerns such as organised crime, violence, and the growing military influence overshadowed AMLO’s administration.

Critiques were often dismissed as partisan attacks or political manoeuvring. During his six-year term, AMLO dominated the news cycle with lengthy morning news conferences watched by millions. He frequently used this platform to directly attack critics, including human rights defenders, nonprofit organisations, and families of the disappeared.

Martin Villalobos, a spokesperson for “Movimiento por Nuestros Desaparecidos en México”, a movement that unites more than 60 collectives of families of the disappeared, acknowledges that in the beginning AMLO’s government made significant progress. For the first time, it recognised the mass disappearance of people in the country and established institutions like the National Search Commission. However, this progress was later reversed, culminating in the government criticising the families’ movement.

“The issue [of disappearances] was no longer important to the administration, and even less so when political overtones arose that denigrated us,” said Villalobos.

Sheinbaum has echoed AMLO’s rhetoric, claiming that Mexico’s current disappearances are perpetrated by criminals rather than the state, despite evidence from families indicating the involvement of the military and police in many cases.

Families of the disappeared have called on Sheinbaum to initiate a national dialogue aimed at developing an agenda for searching for their loved ones and seeking justice.

Villalobos expressed hope that the new president would not begin her mandate with a confrontation with the families or by implementing policies that could lead to such a confrontation.

Solis, from COLEF, affirmed that certain issues, such as violence, proved challenging to address, contributing to greater distance and discomfort during AMLO’s administration. This was largely due to his direct and confrontational tone. On the other hand, Sheinbaum has promised to govern for all.

“I think that Claudia is going to try to rebuild the relationship with those sectors of the population,” Solís added. “There is a part of Claudia’s speech about not generating so much tension.”