Who will be the next Pope? The selection process and what happens next

Pope Francis died on Monday morning, the Vatican announced, days after he left hospital following treatment for a complex respiratory infection. He was 88.

His death, 12 years after he was declared pope, has prompted renewed questions about who will succeed him as leader of the Catholic Church, one of the oldest and largest religious institutions with up to 1.39 billion followers.

Here’s what you need to know about what could come after Pope Francis, whose social justice ideals and global vision have transformed the Church.

Who will be the next Pope?

A successor has yet to be chosen.

The College of Cardinals, comprised of senior Catholic clergy – many appointed by Francis himself – will elect the next pope. To be eligible, a candidate must be a baptised, male Roman Catholic, though for centuries, the cardinals have exclusively selected someone from their ranks.

There are currently more than 240 cardinals worldwide. They typically hold the title for life.

How is a new pope chosen?

Cardinals under the age of 80, when the pope dies or resigns, vote in what is known as the papal conclave. To prevent outside influence, the conclave locks itself in the Sistine Chapel and deliberates on potential successors.

While the number of papal electors is typically capped at 120, there are currently 138 eligible voters. Its members cast their votes via secret ballots, a process overseen by nine randomly selected cardinals. A two-thirds majority is traditionally required to elect the new pope, and voting continues until this threshold is met.

After each round, the ballots are burned with chemicals, producing either black or white smoke. Black smoke signals that no decision has been made, while white smoke means a new pope has been elected. Once a pope is chosen, a top cardinal announces his name from St Peter’s Basilica.

A general view shows St Peter’s Square when white smoke rises from the chimney on the roof of the Sistine Chapel, in Vatican City, March 13, 2013 [Tiziana Fabi/AFP]

When will the papal conclave start?

Usually, two or three weeks after the death (or resignation) of the last pope. This allows for a nine-day mourning period and for cardinals to make their way to the Vatican from around the world.

The 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis, who is the first pontiff from South America, began just 12 days after the resignation of his predecessor, Benedict XVI.

How long does it take to elect a new Pope?

The process can take days, weeks or even longer, depending on how divided the cardinals are.

Each day, the conclave can hold up to four rounds of voting to try to achieve the required two-thirds majority. If after 33 rounds there is still no decision, the top two candidates face-off in a run-off vote.

The elections of the last three popes have been relatively quick, with each lasting only several days.

But historically, elections have sometimes dragged on much longer, with the papal conclave that elected Pope Gregory X in 1271 taking nearly three years due to fierce political wrangling.

Who are the top candidates to become the next Pope?

Of the 138 cardinals eligible to vote in the conclave, a total of 110 cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis. This group is notably more diverse than previous electors, with a higher representation from Asia, Africa and Latin America, reflecting Francis’s goal of mirroring the Church’s global reach. The youngest cardinal elector is only 45 years old, a Ukrainian clergy based in Australia.

As a result, there is a possibility that, for the first time in centuries, the next pope could come from Africa or Asia – or another region traditionally underrepresented in the church’s leadership.

Among the African cardinals being discussed are Ghana’s Peter Turkson, the former head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, and Congo’s Fridolin Ambongo, archbishop of Kinshasa. Both are committed conservatives who have been vocal advocates for peace in their respective countries.

Another strong contender is Philippine Cardinal Luis Tagle, the former archbishop of Manila. Like Pope Francis, Tagle emphasises social justice and caring for the poor.

Pope Francis meets Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (C) and a group of migrants in St Peter’s Square at the Vatican, September 27, 2017 [Alessandro Bianchi/Reuters]

Hungarian cardinal Peter Erdo is seen as a leading conservative candidate and could serve as a bridge to Eastern Christians. The archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Erdo is a traditionalist who has championed outreach to Orthodox Christians, stressing the “desperate need” for unity between the churches.

Also in the mix is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Holy See’s Secretary of State, whose top diplomatic role ensures he is well known by all cardinals.

Other possible candidates include Italy’s Matteo Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna, and Malta’s Mario Grech, secretary-general of the Synod of Bishops, a position that kept him in close contact with Pope Francis.

What happens to the Vatican during a transition?

During the “sede vacante” (vacant seat) period – when the papal office is unoccupied – a senior cardinal, known as the Camerlengo, certifies the pope’s death and temporarily takes charge of the Vatican’s finances and administrative affairs. He does not have the authority to alter church doctrine or make significant decisions.

The current Camerlengo is Irish-born Cardinal Kevin Farrell, who also serves as the president of the Vatican’s Supreme Court.