What Russia wants from Israel-Iran escalation: Chaos good, war bad

Anna Levina, a Russian researcher and photographer-documentarian living in Beirut, has been stocking up on supplies in preparation for Israel’s assault on Lebanon, and she still has non-perishables sitting in her kitchen since last October, when Hezbollah and Israel started firing missiles at each other.

“The feeling is, of course, unpleasant, but I’ve been waiting for this moment for a year,” said Levina, of the dramatic escalation in Israeli missile strikes on many parts of Lebanon, including Beirut, over the past two weeks, in which more than 2,000 people have been killed. On Tuesday, Israel also announced the start of ground operations in southern Lebanon, where its forces have since been locked in combat with Hezbollah fighters.

Levina spoke of how Israel was “bombing residential buildings, and just now there was another air strike three kilometres from me on some medical centre.”

“It is difficult to cope with this on a human level,” she said.

For Russia, her country, the expanding war between Israel and its neighbours is also difficult on a strategic level, say analysts.

Russia’s foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin has revolved around a “multipolar world,” an alternative to the US-led world order. With heightened prospects of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, and the war also expanding decisively into Lebanon, what does this latest crisis mean for Russia’s interests as a global power?

“The ongoing escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict is of serious concern to Russia,” Alexey Malinin, founder of the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation and member of the Digoria Expert Club think tank, told Al Jazeera, noting Russia’s repeated calls for a diplomatic solution.

“However, these efforts are constantly encountering opposition, which is expressed in the desire of the United States to support Israel in almost any situation, primarily in military terms. And this support, which is subsequently used to turn Lebanon into a battlefield, nullifies all statements about the US desire to ensure peace in this region.”

In contrast to the United States and its allies’ steadfast support for Israel, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned the entry of Israeli troops into Lebanon, urging Israel to withdraw the soldiers. Earlier, Russia also condemned the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, saying Israel “bears full responsibility for the subsequent escalation”.

But as the conflict spreads, especially to Iran, Russia’s goals are not just based on larger foreign policy principles, point out analysts.

‘Falling into Iran’s orbit’

Russia has received significant Iranian assistance for its own invasion of Ukraine, tying it to Tehran’s interests in the region.

“Russia has been closely cooperating with Iran for the past two-and-a-half years, but exclusively in the military sphere,” said Ruslan Suleymanov, an independent Russian specialist on the Middle East based in Baku, Azerbaijan.

“Iranian weapons are in great demand. They have never been in such demand, and Russia has become dependent on Iranian weapons.”

Iranian military instructors, Suleymanov said, now visit Russia and are helping to build a factory for the production of Shahed drones inside Russia.

“As a result, Russia is forced to support Iran’s allies in the Middle East such as the Hezbollah movement,” Suleymanov said.

Whereas Malinin blames Washington for frustrating peace-making efforts, according to Suleymanov, Moscow’s policies in the region are a direct result of “falling into Iran’s orbit”.

Welcomes chaos, but doesn’t want war

Both Malinin and Suleymanov, however, agree that Russia doesn’t want another war.

“Moscow is not interested in a huge firestorm,” said Suleymanov.

“We saw this in April. When it seemed that Iran and Israel were already entering a big war, Russia did not unequivocally take Iran’s side. Russia urged both Iran and Israel to show restraint,” he said, referring to tensions that exploded after Israel struck an Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, killing senior Iranian military commanders, and Iran responded by firing missiles into Israel for the first time ever.

At the same time, Suleymanov added, “Russia benefits from the chaos in the Middle East”.

“The Americans are now distracted from the war in Ukraine: They need to spend a lot of time resolving the situation in the Middle East.”

“But at the same time, the Kremlin would not like to see [another] major war,” he emphasised.

Russia and Iran share a mutual antagonism with the United States. They also share a common ally in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, intervening during his country’s civil war. Russian warplanes bombed rebel-held cities, while Hezbollah fought furiously on the ground. Russia has strategic interests in Syria, including military bases as well as oil and gas deposits.

To defuse tensions with Israel, Moscow has used its influence with Tehran to persuade Hezbollah to pull back from the Syrian-Israeli border.

Levina, the Beirut-based Russian researcher, said that there was a view among observers that there has existed a tacit understanding between Israel and Russia, over Syria. She cited Israel’s reluctance to supply military hardware to Ukraine in its war against Russia, and said that when Israel strikes Hezbollah positions in southern Syria –  where Moscow’s troops are present – “Russia does nothing, just lets them.”

Russia’s complex history with Lebanon and Hezbollah

As for Lebanon, Russia’s interests are rather limited. During Soviet times, Lebanese students, especially members of the Communist Party, were invited to attend the Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow – and some sympathy for modern Russia remains, embodied by the billboards of Putin occasionally displayed in the Shia and Orthodox Christian areas.

“The USSR were very active with the communist parties here and they had interests in common,” said Levina, including over Palestine and Armenians living in Lebanon.

Today, Russia’s relations with Lebanon aren’t as extensive, she said – and when it comes to Hezbollah, have long been complicated.

During the Lebanese Civil War, which lasted between 1975 and 1990, Hezbollah purportedly took three Soviet diplomats hostage as a means of pressuring Moscow to use its influence over Syria to stop shelling positions in Tripoli. After one hostage was executed, the KGB reportedly responded by kidnapping and castrating a Hezbollah leader’s relative and delivering the appendage. The rest of the hostages were swiftly released. This account has not been officially verified by either Hezbollah or the Kremlin.

The de-facto allies are still not particularly close, and there have been reported tensions over Hezbollah’s continued presence in Syria.

On Thursday, a Russian emergency plane evacuated 60 family members of diplomatic staff from Lebanon, but more than 3,000 Russian nationals remain in the country. The same plane delivered 33 tonnes of humanitarian aid, including food, medical supplies and power generators. Further evacuations could follow.

Levina, meanwhile, hopes Hezbollah will bog down the Israeli advance.

“It was of course very unpleasant, but the ground invasion was, dare I say, good news because this is the third time Israel’s making this mistake,” she said, referring to Israel’s invasion and occupation of Lebanon in 1982, and the war in 2006.

“And they’re not learning at all.”