What is behind Israel’s decision to attack Iran?

Israel has begun its long-signalled attacks connected Iran with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying they would proceed “as agelong arsenic necessary”.

The attacks, which began aboriginal connected Friday, look to person been cautiously planned, hitting subject and authorities targets and sidesplitting respective elder subject leaders – including the caput of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, and the main of unit of the equipped forces, Mohammad Bagheri. Prominent Iranian nuclear scientists are besides among the dead.

The strikes took spot contempt negotiations betwixt Iran and Israel’s main ally, the United States, implicit the aboriginal of Tehran’s atomic programme, leading galore to suspect that the menace of Israeli enactment was a coordinated ploy to bring further unit onto Iran.

Moments ago, Israel launched Operation “Rising Lion”, a targeted subject cognition to rotation backmost the Iranian menace to Israel's precise survival.

This cognition volition proceed for arsenic galore days arsenic it takes to region this threat.

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Statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: pic.twitter.com/XgUTy90g1S

— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) June 13, 2025

US enactment remains captious to Israel. As good arsenic serving arsenic the country’s main armourer, Washington besides acts arsenic a imperishable shield against disapproval of Israel successful the United Nations, often utilizing its veto successful the UN Security Council to halt immoderate authoritative censure of its state contempt allegations of Israel’s repeated breaches of planetary law.

And an onslaught against Iran – a almighty determination unit with allied groups crossed the Middle East – is yet a risky determination for Israel, which is expecting an Iranian response, and the US, which has soldiers deployed crossed the region.

So, fixed the stakes, wherefore would Israel onslaught Iran and wherefore now? Here’s what we know:

Did Iran airs an imminent atomic menace to Israel?

Israel’s subject superiority successful the Middle East comes not conscionable done its accepted arsenal oregon the backing of the US, but from the vantage it has that nary different state successful the portion does: atomic weapons.

Israel is wide acknowledged to person atomic weapons though it has ne'er publically admitted it.

An Iranian atomic limb would instrumentality distant that vantage and is, therefore, a reddish enactment for Israel. For years, Israel – and peculiarly Netanyahu – has insisted that Iran is connected the verge of acquiring atomic weapons, adjacent arsenic Tehran has insisted that its atomic programme is for peaceful purposes.

Justifying the Israeli attack, Netanyahu said Iran could person produced “a atomic limb successful a precise abbreviated clip – it could beryllium a year, oregon it could beryllium a fewer months”. An unnamed Israeli subject authoritative was besides quoted arsenic saying Iran had “enough fission worldly for 15 atomic bombs wrong days”.

What is the non-Israeli appraisal of Iran’s atomic capabilities?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported connected Thursday that Iran had failed to uphold the obligations it had signed connected to arsenic portion of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, an accusation Iran rapidly rejected.

The IAEA besides noted what it believed was a agelong past of noncooperation betwixt Iran and its inspectors. However, it didn’t accidental that Iran had developed atomic weapons.

As portion of a 2015 woody with the US, different Western countries, China and Russia, Iran agreed to bounds its atomic programme and let the IAEA to regularly inspect its facilities successful instrumentality for alleviation from the crippling sanctions that it was under.

However, successful 2018, US President Donald Trump – past successful his archetypal statesmanlike word – unilaterally withdrew from the woody and reimposed sanctions.

The US has, however, not recovered that Iran is connected the verge of acquiring atomic weapons oregon attempting to bash so. In March, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said the US “continues to measure that Iran is not gathering atomic weapons and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not authorised the atomic weapons programme helium suspended successful 2003”.

Why other would Israel onslaught Iran?

Netanyahu has antecedently described Iran arsenic “the caput of the octopus” with “tentacles each astir from the Houthis to Hezbollah to Hamas”. The thought is that Iran is astatine the caput of a web of anti-Israeli groups crossed the portion known arsenic the “axis of resistance”.

Since starting the warfare successful Gaza successful October 2023, Israel has been capable to severely weaken some Hamas and Hezbollah, limiting their abilities to onslaught Israel. The apical leaders of some organisations person been astir wholly taken out, including important figures, specified arsenic Hezbollah person Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh.

The attacks connected Hezbollah successful peculiar were not met with the benignant of blowback that galore successful Israel feared, allowing hawks successful Israel to reason that their state has an unprecedented accidental to proceed to people its enemies, including Iran, and reshape the full Middle East. Some whitethorn deliberation the accidental is adjacent determination for authorities alteration successful Iran – though that would apt necessitate a acold longer warfare than Israel has the capableness to conduct.

That is contempt determination being nary nonstop confrontation since past twelvemonth betwixt Israel, Iran oregon immoderate of its allies earlier Friday’s strikes by Israel. Neither had determination been immoderate menace of action, different than that of counterstrikes if Israel did attack.

Was determination a home governmental constituent to Israel’s strikes connected Iran?

Many successful Israel impeach Netanyahu of making subject decisions – including successful the warfare connected Gaza, wherever Israel has killed much than 55,000 Palestinians – connected the ground of his ain governmental considerations.

In the eyes of his critics, Netanyahu has go babelike upon conflict, some with Iran and successful Gaza, to support his coalition. The alternate is to hazard the illness of his authorities and a nationalist reckoning with his ain failings up of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks connected Israel, which killed 1,139 people, arsenic good arsenic a imaginable situation condemnation arsenic a effect of the aggregate corruption charges helium faces.

“For Netanyahu, the quality betwixt overseas and home authorities cannot beryllium distinguished,” Israeli governmental expert Ori Goldberg said. “There was nary imminent menace to Israel. This was not inevitable. The [IAEA] study did not incorporate thing suggesting Iran posed an existential menace to Israel.”

Most politicians successful Israel person rallied astir the subject since the strikes connected Iran. On Thursday, Netanyahu’s conjugation had lone survived a ballot to dissolve the parliament and trigger elections aft reaching an 11th-hour compromise implicit the contentious exemption of ultra-Orthodox younker from the draft.

But now, Israeli absorption person Yair Lapid has praised the attacks connected Iran, and left-wing person Yair Golan has besides backed the strikes.

Netanyahu’s determination to onslaught astatine Iran had been borne of the “stress” of his governmental presumption and his addiction to humor and force, left-wing Israeli subordinate of parliament Ofer Cassif told Al Jazeera.

To Cassif’s regret, however, the determination appeared to person won the enactment of the parliamentary opposition.

Has Israel again breached planetary instrumentality successful striking Iran?

According to immoderate ineligible experts, yes.

Israel has already been accused of breaching countless planetary laws done its 20-month-long warfare connected Gaza.

And the strikes connected Iran whitethorn people a caller section successful the country’s breaches of planetary law, Michael Becker, a prof of planetary quality rights instrumentality astatine Trinity College successful Dublin, told Al Jazeera. “Based connected publically disposable information, Israel’s usage of unit against Iran does not acceptable wrong the inherent close of self-defence enshrined successful the UN Charter.”

“Self-defence requires Israel’s actions to beryllium directed astatine an ongoing oregon imminent equipped onslaught by Iran,” added Becker, who has antecedently worked astatine the International Court of Justice successful The Hague. “There is nary denotation that an onslaught by Iran against Israel was imminent, nor is it capable nether planetary instrumentality for Israel to warrant the onslaught based connected its appraisal that Iran volition soon person a atomic capability,  particularly fixed the ongoing negotiations betwixt the US and Iran.”