US election: 9 days left – What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

With nine days left to go until Election Day in the United States, the two top contenders for the White House – Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump – continue to scramble for votes in battleground states as polls suggest a tight race.

On Saturday, Trump made a bold play for Arab-American and Muslim voters in Michigan, a swing state with nearly 400,000 voters of Arab background.

Michigan voted for Biden in 2020, but anger over Israel’s genocide in Gaza and the war on Lebanon could affect the Democratic turnout for Harris.

Michigan is one of the seven competitive US states likely to decide the winner. It is part of the “Blue Wall” that is considered Democrats’ best chance of electing Harris, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Harris also campaigned in Michigan on Saturday, warning that Trump would exercise “unchecked and extreme power” if he returns to the White House.

What are the latest updates from the polls?

A poll released by the Emerson College Polling on Saturday has Harris and Trump tied at 49 percent each.

The survey, conducted on October 23-24, suggested a tighter race than a week earlier, which showed Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 48 percent. It is also the first time since August in Emerson’s weekly polling that Harris is not in the lead.

“Male voters are breaking for Trump by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, a larger margin than in 2020, while women break for Harris by 10 points, 54 percent to 44 percent, underperforming Biden’s support in 2020,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

The latest survey also found that regardless of who they will vote for, 50 percent of American voters think Trump will win the election while 49 percent think so for Harris.

The polling also listed the top issues for voters are the economy at 45 percent, followed by immigration (14 percent), threats to democracy (14 percent), abortion access (7 percent), healthcare (6 percent), and crime (4 percent).

Meanwhile, the latest FiveThirtyEight’s daily average showed Harris leading in the national polls, 47.9 to Trump’s 46.6.

According to the same polling, Harris’s unfavourable rating edged up to 47.8 percent, while her favourable rating was at 46.4 percent. Trump’s unfavourable rating was at 52.1 percent while his favourable rating was at 43.4 percent.

What was Kamala Harris up to on Saturday?

Harris was in Michigan, where former First Lady Michelle Obama fired up the crowd of Democratic supporters by drawing distinctions between Harris and Trump on personal character and qualifications, saying there was a double standard in how the two were being treated.

Obama warned that another term under Trump would result in further rollbacks to abortion rights. She said Trump’s promise to rescind the Affordable Care Act passed during her husband’s presidency would affect the “entirety of women’s health, all of it”.

Michelle Obama speaks at a campaign rally for Harris in Kalamazoo, Michigan, October 26, 2024 [Jacquelyn Martin/AP]

Harris was several minutes into an upbeat address when she was interrupted by a demonstrator who repeatedly yelled, “No more Gaza war.”

After Harris’s supporters shouted down the interruption, she responded, “On the topic of Gaza, we must end that war”, then picked up where she left off, asking voters to “turn the page on the fear and the divisiveness”.

What was Donald Trump up to on Saturday?

Also campaigning in Michigan, Trump met a group of Muslim preachers, arguing that he deserved the support of Muslim voters because he would end conflicts and bring peace to the Middle East.

Trump fully backs Israel and has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” in dealing with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Even so, Trump appears to be gaining support from some Muslim Americans upset with President Joe Biden’s and Harris’s policy in Gaza, and despite Trump banning immigration from some Muslim-majority countries as president.

Imam Belal Alzuhairi of the Islamic Center of Detroit joined Trump on stage in Novi, saying, “We ask Muslims to stand with President Trump because he promises peace.”

During the same appearance, however, Trump also denigrated Detroit while trying to appeal to the suburban votes.

“I think Detroit and some of our areas make us a developing nation,” he said, adding that people want him to say Detroit is “great”, but he thinks it “needs help”.

What’s next for the Harris and Trump campaigns?

According to her campaign, Harris is spending all of Sunday in Philadelphia, crisscrossing the city in a series of neighbourhood events to turn out voters. Turnout in Philadelphia could be the determining factor in whether Harris can carry the critical state of Pennsylvania, which carries 19 electoral votes.

According to the Philadelphia Inquirer newspaper, Harris’s full-day tour will focus on predominantly Black and Latino neighbourhoods of the Democrat-leaning city.

Harris is scheduled to attend services on Sunday morning and deliver remarks at a Black church in West Philadelphia. She will also visit a barbershop in West Philadelphia for a conversation with young Black men and community leaders.

Meanwhile, Trump will take the stage at one of the country’s most iconic venues, hosting a hometown rally at New York City’s Madison Square Garden to deliver his campaign’s closing message against Harris.

Trump was born and raised in Queens in New York City. He also built his real estate career in the city.

While some Democrats and TV pundits have questioned Trump’s decision to hold what they dismiss as vanity events, the rally in the Democrat-leaning New York guarantees Trump what he most craves: the spotlight, wall-to-wall coverage and a national audience.

“It’s the New York, but it’s also, you know, it’s MSG, it’s Madison Square Garden,” Trump said during a recent radio interview. “Guys like you and I, that means a lot, those words. Madison Square Garden, right? Don’t you think so? … It’s a very big stop.”

Trump will be joined at the rally by supporters including Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who has spent tens of millions of dollars to boost his campaign.