US election: 8 days left – What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

With eight days to go to the election, former President Donald Trump hosted a rally at Madison Square Garden in his hometown of New York while Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.

At the Madison Square Garden Rally on Sunday, Trump repeatedly rammed home his plans to halt undocumented immigration and deport migrants he described as “vicious and bloodthirsty criminals”.

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris said in Philadelphia that nobody should sit on the sidelines. “We are focused on the future and the needs of the American people,” she said.

By midday on Sunday (16:00 GMT), more than 41 million Americans had already voted in early in-person voting or via mail-in ballots, according to a tally by the Election Lab at the University of Florida. In 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic – more than 100 million voters had cast their ballots before Election Day.

What are the latest updates from the polls?

Harris and Trump remain neck-and-neck in this very tight race.

A CBS News/YouGov poll released on Sunday showed that Harris is leading Trump nationally, with 50 percent compared to Trump’s 49 percent, but the result remains subject to the survey’s margin of error.

The poll also showed that there is a major gender divide in the race, with more men preferring Trump and more women preferring Harris. Trump, the poll shows, leads male voters by 54 percent to 45 percent, while Harris leads women voters by 55 percent to 43 percent.

Men are more likely to view Trump as a strong leader (64 percent to 50 percent), while women are more likely to say Harris has the right “mental and cognitive health” to be president, according to the poll.

In a separate analysis from FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker, Harris was slightly ahead in the national polls as of Sunday, leading Trump by 1.4 percentage points. However, the long-term trend shows that the race is getting closer, with the gap narrowing from 1.7 points last week.

Seven US swing states are likely to determine the outcome of the election.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s daily poll tracker, Harris retains a narrow lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump holds a slight edge over Harris in Pennsylvania and Nevada and enjoys a more substantial lead in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.

In all seven states, however, the candidates are within two points of each other, well within the polls’ margins of error, leaving each state a tossup just days before the final vote.

What was Kamala Harris up to on Sunday?

On Sunday, the Democratic candidate spoke at Philadelphia’s Church of Christian Compassion, where she stressed the stakes of the election, describing it as the “most consequential election of our lifetime”.

“In just nine days, we have the power to decide the fate of our nation for generations to come,” said Harris, in comments carried by CBS Philadelphia.

“Here, in Pennsylvania, right now each of us has an opportunity to make a difference,” she said. “The great thing about living in a democracy is we, the people, have the choice to answer that question. So let us answer not just with our words, but with our works.”

Harris also addressed young voters, calling them “rightly impatient for change”.

To Gen Z:

You who have only known the climate crisis are leaders in what we need to do to protect our planet.
You who grew up with active shooter drills know what we have to do for safety in our schools.
You who may have fewer rights than your mothers and grandmothers are…

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 27, 2024

On Sunday, Harris was asked by reporters whether she was concerned about the recent conversations between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The two shared a close relationship during Trump’s presidency.

Asked if these talks could undermine the current US government’s objectives, she responded, “No.”

“I do believe that it is critically important that we as the United States of America be an active participant in encouraging one, that this war ends, that we get the hostages out but also that there is a real commitment among nations to a two-state solution and the ‘day after’ [in Gaza],” Harris told reporters.

A recent Arab News/YouGov poll found that Arab-American support for Trump (45 percent) slightly surpassed that for Harris (43 percent), with more respondents also seeing Trump as more likely to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict.

What was Donald Trump up to on Sunday?

The Republican candidate rallied his Make America Great Again (MAGA) base at an event in New York City, promising to crack down on migration and taking aim at Harris.

“November 5 will be the most important date in the history of our country and, together, we will make America powerful again,” said the former president, who painted a portrait of a country plagued by economic and social crises.

Trump also blamed Harris – whom he described as a “radical left Marxist” who is unintelligent and “unfit” to serve as president – for the problems the country faces. “You’ve destroyed our country,” he said, referring to the US vice president.

Trump speaks during a rally at Madison Square Garden, in New York [Andrew Kelly/Reuters]

Separately, a comedian’s controversial performance ignited backlash after he referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage”.

Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe asked, “where are my proud Latinos at tonight?”, before diving into a string of jokes about immigration and the Texas-Mexico border. “You guys see what I mean? It’s wide open; there’s so many of them,” he added.

Hinchcliffe’s performance took a drastic turn when he likened Puerto Rico, a US territory, to ocean waste.

“There’s a lot going on, like, I don’t know if you know this but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. Yeah. I think it’s called Puerto Rico,” Hinchcliffe said.

His joke was immediately criticised by Harris’s campaign as it competes with Trump to win over Puerto Rican communities in Pennsylvania and other swing states. Puerto Rican music superstar Bad Bunny backed Harris shortly after Hinchcliffe’s comments.

The normally pugnacious Trump campaign took the rare step of distancing itself from Hinchcliffe. “This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign,” senior adviser Danielle Alvarez said in a statement.

Trump speaks during a rally at Madison Square Garden [EPA]

What’s next for the Harris and Trump campaigns?

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz – joint rally in Michigan

Harris and vice presidential nominee Tim Walz are hosting a campaign rally and concert in Ann Arbor, a college town in Michigan. The event will feature a performance by singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers.

In Michigan, Harris and Trump are battling to woo voters, including an Arab American and Muslim population deeply concerned about Israel’s war on Gaza.

Trump fully backs Israel but has not said how he would end the conflict. Even so, he appears to be gaining support from some Muslim Americans who are unhappy with President Joe Biden and Harris’s support of Israel throughout the war so far.

“It’s safe to say it’s a must-win state for Kamala Harris, and yet Arab Americans – who have been supporting Democrats much more than supporting Republicans since 2004 and Iraq and Abu Ghraib – have really been disaffected by the Biden administration and by Kamala Harris’s lack of distancing herself from the Biden administration on the issue of Gaza [and] now Lebanon,” John Zogby, a pollster and founder of John Zogby Strategies, told Al Jazeera.

Trump rally in Georgia

Trump will address Atlanta on Monday.

He will begin with a speech at the National Faith Summit in Powder Springs and conclude with a rally at Georgia Tech.

According to local media reports, Trump will first address more than 1,000 pastors and faith leaders before heading to McCamish Pavilion for his scheduled campaign rally.

Trump is expected to emphasise economic issues and promote early voting.

Georgia, with 16 Electoral College votes, is another key battleground state – Trump won it in 2016 but narrowly lost the state to President  Biden in 2020.