US election: 13 days left — What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

Voters in Hawaii, Missouri, Utah, and Wisconsin started casting their ballots on Tuesday, joining several other states that began early voting in recent weeks.

Polls suggest Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican contender Donald Trump are neck-and-neck nationwide and in battleground states.

On Tuesday, Harris gave two interviews – one to NBC News and another with Telemundo. Meanwhile, Trump held a rally in North Carolina after hosting a roundtable discussion with Latino leaders.

Here’s a look at what the polls say, the key highlights from campaigns over the previous day, and what to expect next.

What are the latest updates from the polls?

According to polls, there is a close race between both candidates. On Tuesday, a Reuters/Ipsos poll suggested that Harris had a slight lead over Trump, with 46 percent to 43 percent.

Harris’s lead in the six-day poll that closed on Monday was similar to her 45 percent to 42 percent advantage over Trump in a Reuters/Ipsos poll from the previous week.

The new poll also suggested that voters share a negative outlook on the economy and immigration, generally favouring Trump’s approach to these issues. About 60 percent believed the economy was moving in the wrong direction.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker, as of October 22, Harris was leading in the national polls and had a 1.9 percentage-point lead over Trump.

National surveys provide valuable insights into voter sentiment, but the outcome of the Electoral College – determined by state-by-state results – ultimately decides the winner, with seven battleground states expected to be critical.

The difference between Harris and Trump in each of the seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada — is within the margin of error of polls. That means the two candidates are effectively tied across these states, with Trump marginally ahead in the poll averages for Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, and Harris with a wafer-thin lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.

If these marginal differences between their polling numbers hold, Trump is likely to win the presidency. But if polls undercounted support for Harris in even one of the battleground states Trump leads in, the outcome could be a win for the incumbent vice president.

What was Kamala Harris up to on Tuesday?

In an interview with NBC in Washington, DC, Harris said her team is prepared to challenge any early victory claim made by Trump, emphasising that her priority is defeating him.

She said the Democrats “have the resources and expertise” to counter any attempts by Trump to undermine the election.

“This is a person, Donald Trump, who tried to undo a free and fair election, who still denies the will of the people, who incited a violent mob to attack the United States Capitol and some 140 law enforcement officers were attacked, some were killed. This is a very serious matter,” she added.

She was also interviewed by Telemundo, a Spanish-language television network in the US. During the interview, she said, according to a report by The Associated Press news agency, that she will work to build an economy that “supports the working class”. She also emphasised her focus on solutions that “could bring more capital” to the community. This interview is set to air on Wednesday at 23:00 GMT.

Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate, took aim at Trump while addressing a crowd in Madison, Wisconsin, before former President Barack Obama’s appearance. Walz said Trump had no stamina and was meandering in his speeches.

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump criticised Harris for not making any campaign appearances that day.

During his speech in Madison, Wisconsin, Obama said he had already voted in Chicago. Obama told the crowd: “If you haven’t voted yet, I won’t be offended if you just walk out right now [to go vote].”

He also took potshots at Trump. “You’d be worried if grandpa was acting like” Trump, Obama said.

“This is coming from somebody who wants unchecked power,” Obama said. “So, Wisconsin, we do not need to see what an older, loonier Donald Trump looks like with no guardrails. America is ready to turn the page.”

Former US President Barack Obama speaks at a rally [Go Nakamura/Reuters]

What was Donald Trump up to?

Trump held a roundtable with Latino leaders in Florida. In his opening remarks, prominent Florida Republicans, including Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and US Senator Rick Scott, highlighted Trump’s record of supporting the Hispanic community during his previous term.

According to Al Jazeera’s John Holman, reporting from Miami, Harris has strong support among Latino voters, while Trump is working to secure key endorsements from the community, especially in politically vital states.

“When we look at the battleground states, according to Voto Latino, Harris has the support of 63 percent of Latino voters, while Trump has less than half of that at 31 percent,” Holman said.

“What he will be trying to do is not to supersede the support that Harris has, but to prise enough Latino voters away from her, especially in states like Nevada and Arizona … to try to get a path to victory, and there are signs especially among male Latino voters that he might be able to do that,” he added.

In his appearance, he criticised Harris saying, “She’s sleeping right now … This is not what you want.”

Trump’s remarks follow Harris’s attempt to portray him as “exhausted” after he withdrew from several interviews.

The former president also took the opportunity to criticise the Biden administration for the leak of classified documents purportedly outlining Israel’s plans for an attack on Iran. He called it a “bad thing”.

“Can you imagine somebody doing that? That’s the enemy. I guess that maybe [it] is the enemy from within,” he said.

Trump also painted a grim picture of what he sees as the stakes in the upcoming election in two weeks.

“If we lose this election, we may not have a country any more,” Trump said.

Towards the end of the day, Trump also held a rally in North Carolina, where he criticised the state’s economy and attacked Harris.

THANK YOU, NORTH CAROLINA! This election is a choice between whether we will have four more years of incompetence, failure, and disaster—or whether we will begin the FOUR GREATEST YEARS in the HISTORY OF OUR COUNTRY! pic.twitter.com/JJhJsJcOHk

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 23, 2024

What’s next for the Harris and Trump campaigns?

Harris to participate in a CNN town hall

On Wednesday, CNN will host a live town hall with Harris outside of Philadelphia with a live audience of undecided voters. Walz is set to return to the city on Friday, marking his first visit back to Philadelphia since being announced as Harris’s running mate over the summer.

Separately on Thursday, iconic musician Bruce Springsteen will appear with Harris and Obama at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, according to sources.

Trump to campaign in battleground Georgia

Trump is expected to campaign in Georgia too. In the state – with 16 Electoral College votes – Trump is leading Harris by 1.5 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker.

Both campaigns are focused on securing Georgia. The state narrowly went to Joe Biden in 2020, contributing to his victory in the last presidential election. Trump won Georgia in 2016 on his way to the presidency.

Popular podcaster Joe Rogan will interview Trump on Friday.

Trump and Rogan share a complicated history. Although they shook hands and chatted briefly at a UFC fight, Trump later criticised Rogan after he remarked that then-candidate Robert Kennedy Jr was the only one running who made sense to him. Rogan is a UFC commentator.

“It will be interesting to see how loudly Joe Rogan gets BOOED the next time he enters the UFC Ring??? MAGA2024,” Trump wrote on his social media site in August.