Trump’s tariff threat to Brazil is a gift to Lula

By attacking Brazil’s sovereignty, Trump whitethorn person handed the leftist president a governmental and diplomatic opportunity.

In a provocative determination that fuses overseas argumentation with ideological allegiance, United States President Donald Trump has threatened to enforce a 50 percent tariff connected each Brazilian exports, effectual August 1, 2025. The announcement came successful a missive posted connected societal media, successful which Trump explicitly linked the projected tariffs to 2 ongoing home issues successful Brazil: the judicial proceedings against far-right erstwhile president Jair Bolsonaro – whom Trump described arsenic the unfortunate of a governmental “witch-hunt” – and caller rulings by the Brazilian Supreme Court against US-based societal media companies, including erstwhile Trump state Elon Musk’s X. By doing so, Trump has escalated a commercialized quality into a nonstop effort to power Brazil’s interior affairs – utilizing economical unit to service governmental ends and undermining the country’s sovereignty successful the process.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva responded swiftly and unequivocally: “Brazil is simply a sovereign federation with autarkic institutions and volition not judge immoderate signifier of tutelage,” helium declared, adding that Brazil’s judiciary is autonomous and not taxable to interference oregon threat. Under Brazilian law, integer platforms are obligated to show and region contented that incites unit oregon undermines antiauthoritarian institutions, and they whitethorn beryllium held legally accountable erstwhile they neglect to bash so.

While a 50 percent tariff connected Brazilian exports mightiness look economically devastating, it could successful information go a strategical turning constituent – and adjacent a blessing successful disguise. Brazil has some the resilience and the diplomatic tools to upwind this tempest and look stronger.

The United States is 1 of Brazil’s largest trading partners, typically ranking 2nd aft China – oregon 3rd if the European Union is considered arsenic a azygous bloc. Brazilian exports to the US see concern goods specified arsenic Embraer aircraft, robust and steel, crude oil, java and semiprecious stones, alongside cultivation products similar beef, orangish juice, eggs and tobacco. In return, Brazil imports ample quantities of US-manufactured goods, including machinery, electronics, aesculapian equipment, chemicals and refined petroleum. Notably, the US has maintained a commercialized surplus with Brazil for the past 5 years.

Should Washington proceed with the 50 percent tariffs, Brasília has respective retaliatory options nether its Economic Reciprocity Law. These see raising import tariffs connected US goods, suspending clauses successful bilateral commercialized agreements, and – successful exceptional cases specified arsenic this – withholding designation of US patents oregon suspending royalty payments to American companies. The interaction connected US consumers could beryllium contiguous and tangible, with meal staples similar coffee, eggs and orangish foodstuff spiking successful price.

Brazil is not without friends oregon alternatives. The state has already been deepening ties with chap BRICS members (China, India, Russia, South Africa) and newer partners successful the bloc. This quality lone strengthens the lawsuit for accelerating specified integration. Diversifying export markets and embracing South-South practice isn’t conscionable ideological; it’s economically pragmatic.

Closer to home, the hostility presents an accidental to reinvigorate South American integration. The long-held determination imagination of enhanced collaboration – from commercialized to infrastructure – could summation caller momentum arsenic Brazil reassesses its planetary alignments. This realignment could respire beingness into stalled Mercosur bloc initiatives and trim dependence connected an progressively erratic narration with the US.

Ironically, Trump’s assertive determination whitethorn weaken his ideological allies successful Brazil. While Bolsonaro supporters (including members of his family) person praised the US president’s intervention, they whitethorn beryllium missing its broader governmental consequences. Trump’s past power overseas has often backfired, with right-wing candidates successful countries similar Canada and Australia paying the price. A akin result successful Brazil is not unthinkable. Lula, who has consistently positioned himself arsenic a pragmatic, diplomatic and stabilising planetary figure, whitethorn summation governmental crushed from this latest episode. His defence of sovereignty, antiauthoritarian institutions and balanced planetary relations could resonate much profoundly with Brazilian voters up of adjacent year’s elections.

This infinitesimal request not beryllium seen arsenic a crisis. Rather, it presents a pivotal accidental for Brazil to asseverate itself arsenic a sovereign economical powerfulness – little reliant connected Washington and much engaged with an emerging multipolar planetary order. If Lula navigates it wisely, Trump’s latest provocation whitethorn present not lone a diplomatic triumph but a important boost to his re-election prospects. In attempting to punish Brazil, Trump whitethorn good person undercut some his overseas argumentation ambitions and his ideological allies abroad.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.