‘Too early to rejoice’: Why Russia isn’t celebrating Trump win – yet

When Donald Trump first took the United States presidency after winning the 2016 election, there were hopes in Moscow that the billionaire-turned-politician would be friendlier to Russia’s interests.

It didn’t exactly play out that way. Despite indictments of multiple Trump associates over allegations that the Kremlin tried to sway elections in Trump’s favour, he amped up sanctions against Moscow and boosted Ukraine’s defensive capabilities with Javelin missiles once in office.

Now eight years later with Trump winning the presidential race this week by defeating Vice President Kamala Harris, the reaction from the Kremlin has so far been far more muted.

While a stream of world leaders – from French President Emmanuel Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to NATO chief Mark Rutte and Chinese President Xi Jinping – has congratulated Trump on his win, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not. This contrasts with 2016 when Putin was among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his electoral victory.

“Let’s not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country, which is both directly and indirectly involved in the war against our state,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday morning.

Peskov added that Putin has no plans to congratulate Trump in the near future and instead will wait to see how he acts once in office.

“Once [in the Oval Office], statements can sometimes take on a different tone. That’s why we say we are carefully analysing everything, monitoring everything, and we will draw conclusions from specific words and concrete actions,” Peskov said.

By contrast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy quickly congratulated Trump on an “impressive” victory.

According to Alexey Malinin, Moscow-based founder of the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation and a member of the Digoria Expert Club, Trump’s victory is proof that American voters are more interested in solving domestic problems than global politics.

“But, of course, no one expects Trump to abandon foreign policy issues,” Malinin told Al Jazeera. “He has already announced that there will be no wars during his term, from which one could conclude that he plans to end the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.”

Malinin, however, cautioned against overstating how much Trump might be able to change Washington’s foreign policy direction, even with a Republican majority in Congress. Republicans have regained control of the US Senate, but results for the House of Representatives are still inconclusive.

“In my opinion, it is definitely too early to rejoice,” Malinin said.

Malinin argued that it would be “impossible” for Trump to end the war in Ukraine on his own. “It will not be possible to end it through any coercion of Russia, and the conditions acceptable to us may not suit both the Americans and many of Ukraine’s sponsors in Europe. They will say, ‘So much money has already been spent. Is it really all in vain?’”

He also questioned whether Trump would be able to impose peace on the Middle East – even if by further strengthening Israel’s hands in its war on Gaza and Lebanon.

Still, analysts said that while the Kremlin understands it will not always see eye to eye with the next White House tenant, it may perhaps enjoy a little more flexibility with Trump than it would have under Harris, who was expected to continue arming and financing Ukraine.

“Trump has one quality that is useful for us: As a businessman to the core, he mortally dislikes spending money on various hangers-on – on idiotic allies, on stupid charity projects and on gluttonous international organisations,” hawkish former President Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Telegram. “Toxic Ukraine of Bandera stands in that same row. The question is how much will they force Trump to give for the war. He is stubborn, but the system is stronger.”

Medvedev was referring to Stepan Bandera, the Ukrainian ultranationalist who allied with Nazi Germany during World War II and is now a hero in Ukraine.

Political consultant Ilya Gambashidze echoed Medvedev’s remarks, calling the president-elect an “excellent” businessman “who is more interested in trade than in war”.

“Many people say that Trump is a pro-Russian president or even ‘a friend of Putin’,” Gambashidze told Al Jazeera. “But we don’t need him in that role at all. We don’t expect him to be a friend to Russia.”

Russia, he said, “doesn’t need sympathy or help from Trump”.

“It would be more than enough if he focused on helping the US – the American economy and social sphere. This would mean that he would shift from confrontation with Russia to constructive and pragmatic relations,” Gambashidze said. “We would like to say to Trump: Make trade, not war, and everything will be fine.”

Yet, there are unknown elements to Trump’s foreign policy approach – and those who will execute it – that could pose risks from Russia’s perspective.

“We don’t yet know whom Trump will put in charge of foreign policy,” warned Ilya Budraitskis, a Russian historian, social scientist and now a visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley.

“We have [Vice President-elect] JD Vance, who believes it’s possible to grant certain concessions to Moscow [regarding Ukraine], but if it’s someone like [former UN Ambassador during Trump’s first term] Nikki Haley, she’s taken a very hard stance on Russia.”

He also pointed out how Trump’s relations with Russia’s allies, especially China and Iran, would affect Moscow.

“We also need to take a look at the bigger picture. Trump considers China to be his chief strategic competitor, and he’s indicated he will be bolder towards Iran.”

Russian citizens are divided too over what Trump truly represents.

“In Russia, those who are smarter think that he’s just as much of a figurehead as the other presidents and the American system of power won’t let him do what he wants,” said Katherine, a clinician in St Petersburg. “And those who are less educated think that he’s a great guy. And many are also surprised – why and for what specifically the elites in America and our former opposition hate him so much. Like, what did he do to them all?”

And what does Katherine think?

“I don’t really care what happens over there, so long as our war is over,” she said.

Others who are more critical of Russia’s war on Ukraine worry about the consequences of Trump’s win.

“There will be less support for Ukraine, and that sucks,” Moscow-based Anya B said.

“On the one hand, of course, the end of the war would be cool, but if support for Ukraine by other countries, primarily the US, ends, then what will the end of the war look like? Destruction of Ukraine? He [Putin] won’t stop as it goes.”