The ‘12-Day War’ ended with an attack on Qatar. Why didn’t it escalate?

When US President Donald Trump entered the warfare betwixt Israel and Iran precocious connected Saturday night, the portion was braced for escalation.

The US dropped 17 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs and 2 twelve cruise missiles connected Iran’s atomic facilities astatine Natanz, Fordow and Esfahan, assisting Israel, which had already been trading rocket occurrence with Tehran since July 13.

Iran’s effect soon came. On Monday evening, it launched 14 missiles aimed astatine the US Air Force’s Central Command successful the Middle East, astatine Al Udeid successful Qatar, a neutral country. Those missiles flew implicit the capital, Doha, spreading alarm.

Yet alternatively of starring to the “rathole of retaliations” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had warned against, the onslaught presaged a truce that Trump announced hours later, and that was facilitated by blase diplomacy involving Qatar, the US and Iran.

So, however did a ceasefire look from the fume of an attack?

What options did Iran have?

A subject effect against a US basal was an evident choice, due to the fact that the US has vulnerability successful Iran’s neighbourhood.

Apart from Al Udeid airbase, its Fifth Fleet is headquartered successful Bahrain. Both are conscionable much than 200km (125 miles) crossed the Persian Gulf from Iran. There is besides an aerial basal successful Kuwait and 4 logistics aerial bases successful Oman. Further afield, the US has 3 aerial bases successful Saudi Arabia, 3 aerial bases successful Iraq, and an aerial basal successful Jordan.

“The US has 40,000 troops successful the portion [on] 19 US bases, 8 of which are permanent, and Iran has said antecedently they volition go morganatic targets if the US strikes Iran,” said Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari.

In the past, Iran’s proxies successful the portion person been Tehran’s “primary Iranian means of retaliating against adversary attacks,” wrote The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based deliberation tank, connected Friday.

Houthi militias could resume attacks connected shipping successful the Red Sea, and Iran could itself onslaught shipping successful the Strait of Hormuz – frankincense menacing 2 of the world’s astir economically important shipping chokepoints simultaneously.

But the proxy attacks ne'er came, demonstrating the limitations of Iran’s alleged “Axis of Resistance”, and “how exhausted it is aft months of warring the United States and Israel”, said the ISW successful a remark connected its website.

Still, adjacent arsenic the satellite prepared for Iran to respond to the US attacks, an Iran historiographer astatine St Andrews University successful the UK, told Al Jazeera connected Monday that helium thought “an ‘off ramp’ with the United States” was likely.

“There volition beryllium a batch of nationalist bluster, but privately, I deliberation feelers volition beryllium enactment out,” helium said, earlier the Iranian onslaught aboriginal that evening.

How did the onslaught unfold?

At astir 7pm section clip (16:00 GMT) connected Monday, Iran struck Qatar.

Qatar condemned the attack arsenic “an highly unsafe escalation that represents a flagrant usurpation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the State of Qatar”. It issued a demarche to the Iranian ambassador successful Doha.

But the “feelers” Ansari had talked astir look to person been enactment retired beforehand.

“I privation to convey Iran for giving america aboriginal notice,” wrote Trump connected societal media, “which made it imaginable for nary lives to beryllium lost, and cipher to beryllium injured.”

The informing besides allowed Qatar to hole its aerial defences, shooting down 13 of the missiles and allowing 1 to alert “in a nonthreatening direction”, according to Trump.

Satellite images suggested the US had evacuated unit and craft from Al Udeid adjacent earlier it struck Iran, truthful targeting it represented a debased hazard of casualties. Neither the US basal astatine Al Udeid nor the Qatari Air Force suffered fewer worldly losses.

“I americium pleased to study that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly immoderate harm was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it each retired of their ‘system’,” wrote Trump 3 hours aft the attack.

A specified 2 hours later, helium announced the ceasefire.

“CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been afloat agreed by and betwixt Israel and Iran that determination volition beryllium a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in astir 6 hours from now, erstwhile Israel and Iran person coiled down and completed their successful progress, last missions!),” Trump wrote connected Truth Social, his societal media platform.

Trump later revealed that “Israel & Iran came to me, astir simultaneously, and said, ‘PEACE!’”

Iran’s authorities was anxious to enactment the warfare down it, issuing a connection aboriginal connected Tuesday saying it had delivered a “humiliating and exemplary effect to the enemy’s cruelty”, and framing the ceasefire arsenic a “national determination to enforce the cessation of warfare connected the Zionist force and its vile supporters”.

How are Qatar’s relations with the US and Iran?

Qatar hosts the largest US airbase successful the Middle East and has worked intimately with Washington connected a bid of tricky diplomatic negotiations, involving the Taliban successful Afghanistan and Hamas successful Gaza, among others.

At the aforesaid time, it enjoys lukewarm diplomatic and economical ties with Iran. “The South Pars and North Pars and North Field person been a associated [venture] for a agelong clip – implicit 25 years,” Doha-based vigor adept Roudi Baroudi told Al Jazeera, referring to state fields that Qatar and Iran share.

The South Pars state tract unsocial holds astir arsenic overmuch state arsenic each the different known state fields connected the planet, said Baroudi.

Right aft helium announced the ceasefire, Trump thanked the emir of Qatar.

“I’d similar to convey the Highly Respected Emir of Qatar for each that helium has done successful seeking Peace for the Region,” helium wrote connected Truth Social. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian telephoned the Qatari emir connected Tuesday to explicit “regret” implicit the onslaught the erstwhile day.

Pezehkian clarified that Qatar and its radical were not the people of Iran’s strikes. “[Pezeshkian] stressed that the State of Qatar volition stay a neighbouring, Muslim, and sisterly state, and expressed his anticipation that relations betwixt the 2 countries volition ever beryllium based connected the principles of respect for the sovereignty of states and bully neighbourliness,” the emir’s bureau said successful a statement.

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani said connected Wednesday that “Qatar undertook important diplomatic efforts with determination and planetary partners to defuse tensions.”

And the interaction of those efforts volition beryllium felt good beyond conscionable Israel and Iran, Baroudi suggested.

“Washington and Doha defused an unseen economical and ecological bomb,” helium said, due to the fact that the Gulf is simply a pulverization keg of highly inflammable lipid and state wellheads, offloading terminals and tankers.

“The full portion has implicit 34 refineries on the coast. We person implicit 105 powerfulness plants and desalination plants, truthful a ceasefire volition enactment distant immoderate information to the h2o and energy [supply] of the full region,” helium said, suggesting Qatar beryllium nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.