Stock futures are flat after S&P 500 closes at a record to end winning September: Live updates

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Market information is displayed on monitors as a trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 4, 2024.

Andrew Kelly | Reuters

Stock futures were little changed on Monday evening, after the S&P 500 closed at a record to end September.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 44 points or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures inched lower by 0.1%, alongside Nasdaq 100 futures.

In the regular session, the S&P 500 and the 30-stock Dow notched closing records. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday that the central bank is "not on any preset course" when it comes to the next steps for rate policy. He said to expect two more cuts this year — that is, a quarter percentage point each — if the economy performs as anticipated.

September is typically the worst month of the year for stocks, but this time it broke with past trends. All three major averages posted monthly gains, and it was the first positive September for the S&P 500 since 2019. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Composite also ended the third quarter in positive territory.

To be sure, the Fed's move to cut interest rates by a half-point at its latest meeting bolstered stocks' performance as of late. Investors will now look to September's nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which will serve as the next catalyst for the major averages.

"The risk here is likely to the downside," said Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar. "With the Fed embarking on a monetary easing policy of a 50-basis-point cut instead of the typical 25-basis-point cut, the question really is, 'Is the Fed seeing more softness in jobs and unemployment than what the market is expecting?'"

Traders were also monitoring a potential strike by members of the International Longshoremen's Association on the East and Gulf Coasts. The stoppage is expected to occur at midnight and could be a major disruption to the delivery of goods shipped in and out of the U.S.

On the economic data front, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August is due Tuesday morning. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index and the ISM Manufacturing PMI readings are also slated for release.

Bank of America says solid jobs data could give stocks a boost

Another pivotal U.S. jobs report this week will determine the market's direction, and Bank of America strategists think it's likely to push stocks to more record highs.

"Risk is to the upside, absent [a] big miss," the Wall Street firm said in a note to clients Sunday. "We think the data will reinforce our outlook for a soft landing. Economic momentum is cooling, not crumbling."

Bank of America noted that because nonfarm payroll data had been weak in July and August, the bar is low for a relief rally.

— Yun Li

S&P 500's 20% gain through three quarters could bode well for Q4

Another good quarter is in the books. The S&P 500 rose for the fourth straight quarter for the first time since the seven straight quarters of gains ended in Q4 2021.

So far this year, the S&P 500 is now up more than 20%, with three quarters done. That's the first time since 1997 that the index has risen 20% or more through the first nine months of the year.

It's a rare feat, too. This is just the 10th time it has happened since 1950.

Bulls will also take note that in almost all cases, the S&P 500 has finished the year much higher after this strong of a start. In fact, only once (during the 1987 crash year) has the S&P 500 fared significantly worse by the end of the year after such a strong showing in the first nine months.

— Robert Hum