Sri Lanka parliamentary elections 2024: What’s at stake?

Sri Lankans will cast ballots in a snap parliamentary election on Thursday, months after electing a Marxist-leaning president in the Indian island nation’s first election since the 2022 economic meltdown and political crisis.

The election was called by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who won the September election after blaming the country’s traditional ruling elite for the economic collapse that led to the country defaulting on its loans.

Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) alliance has just three seats in the outgoing parliament, but opinion polls give the bloc an edge over parties that have ruled the island nation since its independence in 1948.

Here’s a look at the significance of the elections and how they could affect Dissanayake’s political vision for the country of 22 million.

What time does the election start in Sri Lanka?

Polls open between 7am (01:30 GMT) and 4pm (10:30 GMT) local time.

How do parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka work?

• An independent body called the Election Commission of Sri Lanka (ECSL) oversees the election.
• There are 225 seats in the unicameral parliament, and all of them are up for grabs this election. All members are elected for a five-year term. But 29 out of 225 seats are decided indirectly through a national list.
• Each party or independent group contesting the election submits a list of candidates for the national list. The number of national list candidates for each party is chosen based on the number of votes they win.
• Retired commissioner-general of elections, MM Mohamed, explained the process to the local publication, EconomyNext, in 2020. According to the publication, the formula applied for the number of national list candidates for a party is: the number of votes won by the party divided by the number of total votes cast, multiplied by 29.
• A party needs to secure 113 seats to secure a win in the parliament.
• There are 17 million registered voters out of Sri Lanka’s 22 million population, according to the ECSL.
• Voting will be conducted at 13,421 polling stations across the country, according to the ECSL.
• Votes are cast with paper ballots, and voters are required to show valid identification, such as a National Identity Card (NIC), passport, driving licence, senior citizens identity card, government pensioners’ identity card or identity card issued to clergy.
• Police, army and other public servants who cannot cast their votes in person on election day vote through postal ballots in advance.

What’s at stake?

Dissanayake, who has been critical of the “old political guard”, has pledged to abolish the country’s executive presidency, a system under which power is largely centralised under the president. The executive presidency, which first came into existence under President JR Jayawardene in 1978, has been widely criticised in the country for years, but no political party, once in power, has scrapped it until now. The system has in recent years been blamed by critics for the country’s economic and political crises.

Dissanayake has promised to fight corruption and end austerity measures imposed by his predecessor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, as part of the bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“At stake is the ability of newly-elected President Dissanayake to pursue the ambitious agenda that won him election in September,” Alan Keenan, a senior consultant on Sri Lanka for the Belgium-based think tank International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

Dissanayake’s NPP alliance would need a parliamentary majority to pass laws and requires a two-thirds majority to bring constitutional amendments.

He played an active role in the 2022 protests against former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s rule. Tens of thousands took to the streets when inflation skyrocketed and a foreign exchange crisis led to fuel and food shortages.

Rajapaksa was forced to flee, after which Ranil Wickremesinghe took over as president. He lifted the country out of bankruptcy but at a cost to the common people. Wickremesinghe’s $2.9bn IMF deal led to a rise in the cost of living for Sri Lankans.

He was also criticised for protecting the Rajapaksa family – a charge he has denied.

“The people have great expectations for ‘system change’, including holding politicians accountable for corruption. But there is also a major debate happening about the economic trajectory,” Devaka Gunawardena, a political economist and research fellow at the Social Scientists’ Association in Sri Lanka, told Al Jazeera.

“The question is whether Sri Lanka can get itself out of the debt trap while protecting people’s livelihoods, which have been devastated by the crisis and austerity,” he said.

While Dissanayake was critical of the IMF deal and campaigned to restructure the deal, he has since announced – especially after an October meeting with a visiting team from the international lender – to stick to the deal. He has, however, sought “alternative means” to the severe austerity measures introduced by Wickremesinghe, and told the IMF team that his government would aim to provide relief to those Sri Lankans who have been worst affected by increased taxes.

“This election is also about whether the NPP can consolidate its electoral gains in order to explore alternatives, such as redistribution and a shift towards local production,” Gunawardena said.

Which parties hold seats in the current Sri Lankan parliament?

In the current parliament, which was elected in 2020:

• The right-wing Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), also known as the Sri Lanka People’s Front of the Rajapaksa family, holds a majority with 145 of the 225 seats.
• The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) of leader Sajith Premadasa holds 54 seats.
• The Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), the largest Tamil party, has 10 seats.
• Dissanayake’s NPP has only three seats.
• Other smaller parties hold the remaining 13 seats.

Dissanayake dissolved this parliament on September 24 this year.

Which party is expected to win the parliament?

Political analysts predict that Dissanayake’s NPP would win a majority, having gained popularity since the presidential election.

“The NPP is almost certain to do well – the only question is how well. Most observers – and the limited polls available – suggest they will win a majority,” Keenan, from the International Crisis Group, said.

The NPP’s win in the presidential election was a result of the fact that “the entire political class has been discredited by the economic crisis and the resulting struggle that ousted Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022,” Gunawardena from the Social Scientists’ Association in Sri Lanka said.

“The NPP is the clear frontrunner, insofar as it has capitalised on popular frustration. Meanwhile, the SJB will probably remain the main opposition. But other establishment parties such as the SLPP are likely headed towards another electoral wipeout,” he said.

Rajni Gamage, a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, said that the opposition is not likely to do well.

“Despite coming runner-up in the presidential election, the former main Opposition, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya [SJB], is unlikely to perform well this election,” she told Al Jazeera, adding that the NPP has portrayed SJB and other parties as being part of the “old political guard”.

“As a result, their relative experience in governance does not appear to give them an edge over the relatively inexperienced NPP,” Gamage said.

What do opinion polls say?

In a press release on Monday, pollster Institute for Health Policy (IHP) said that their poll had suffered an increased amount of response bias because respondents were over-reporting their support for the NPP.

The IHP still released estimates based on polling data but warned that there is likely a large margin of error associated with it.

According to the estimates, the support at the end of October or early November for the NPP was 53 percent of all adults. This is followed by the SJB with 26 percent of support, National Democratic Front (NDF) with 9 percent, SLPP with 7 percent and the ITAK with 2 percent.

Before IHP reported this bias, the last survey data from August showed NPP and SJB neck-and-neck, with the SJB at 29 percent and NPP at 28 percent. This was followed by the SLPP with 19 percent of the support.

When will results be released?

The final numbers are likely to be known a day or two after the polling. Results were announced within two days of polling in 2020.

A total of 2,034 vote-counting centres have been set up for this parliamentary election.

Why is this election critical for Dissanayake?

While Dissanayake can pass executive orders, he needs the support of the parliament to pass laws.

Gunawardena said that the question is whether there will be forces in the new parliament that can hold the NPP accountable for its promises to the people.

Keenan from the International Crisis Group says NPP is “less certain, and less likely, to win the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution – one of Dissanayake’s campaign pledges”.

In previous elections, the votes of ethnic minorities, including the Tamil, Moor, Muslim and Burgher communities, have been critical. Dissanayake would need political support from these groups.

In the past, Dissanayake backed the Rajapaksa government’s war against the Tamil Tigers. The decades of armed rebellion by the Tamil rebels was crushed in 2009 under President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Rajapaksa’s brother.

Gunawardena said this election will “measure the support of non-elite constituencies for the broader coalition represented by Dissanayake, especially among working people and sections of the middle class immiserated by the crisis”.

“There will be a strong yearning for Dissanayake to back up rhetoric with reforms.”