‘Says one thing, does another’: What’s Trump’s endgame in Iran?

Washington, DC – Over the past week, United States President Donald Trump has been issuing statements connected Iran that look to beryllium contradictory.

He has called for ending the warfare and hinted astatine bid coming “soon”, lone to past suggest that assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could beryllium an enactment for the US on with joining Israel’s bombing campaign.

In the latest turn, the White House said connected Thursday that Trump volition marque a determination connected whether to articulation the warfare wrong 2 weeks.

These changes successful the president’s stance person immoderate observers reasoning that Trump whitethorn not person a wide strategy oregon endgame; alternatively helium is being dragged to warfare by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been seeking US attacks connected Iran for decades.

Alternatively, could Trump beryllium utilizing his progressively bellicose rhetoric against Iran to compel Tehran to hold to wholly springiness up its atomic programme?

If so, experts pass that brinkmanship could crook into an all-out warfare betwixt the US and Iran.

Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, said Trump could beryllium attempting to physique leverage with threats to strongarm Iran into accepting his demands of “total surrender”.

“I deliberation he’s trying to contiguous himself arsenic this madman who is unpredictable, and successful truthful doing, helium tin past importune connected this precise hard enactment that Iran has refused to judge for decades of afloat dismantlement of its enrichment programme,” Abdi told Al Jazeera.

Another imaginable mentation of Trump’s latest statements, Abdi added, is that helium is “being taken for a thrust by Bibi Netanyahu to perpetrate the United States to a full-on warfare with Iran”.

‘He says 1 happening helium does another’

Iranian American expert Negar Mortazavi besides said that Trump is being “outmaneuvered” by Netanyahu.

“I don’t adjacent cognize if President Trump knows what helium wants,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.

“He campaigned arsenic the president of bid … helium promised he’s going to extremity conflicts. Russia-Ukraine hasn’t ended. Gaza has escalated, and helium conscionable fto the 3rd large Middle East warfare – which looks similar a regime-change warfare – commencement nether his watch. So, helium says 1 happening helium does another.”

Israel launched its bombing run against Iran past week, 2 days earlier US and Iranian officials were set to meet for a sixth circular of talks successful Oman.

Hours earlier the Israeli battle began, Trump renewed his committedness to diplomacy. And the archetypal US effect to the Israeli strikes was to accent that Washington is not progressive successful the attacks.

In consequent days, however, Trump appeared to instrumentality recognition for the Israeli bombing campaign.

“We present person implicit and total control of the skies implicit Iran,” helium wrote successful a societal media station connected Tuesday, without elaborating connected who the “we” was.

“Iran had bully entity trackers and different antiaircraft equipment, and plentifulness of it, but it doesn’t comparison to American made, conceived, and manufactured ‘stuff.’ Nobody does it amended than the bully ol’ USA.”

Israel’s strikes person targeted Iran’s aerial defences, subject and atomic facilities, lipid infrastructure and residential buildings, sidesplitting hundreds of people, including apical subject and governmental officials arsenic good arsenic many civilians. Iran has responded with hundreds of ballistic missiles that person killed astatine slightest 24 Israelis and near wide demolition crossed the country.

Israeli officials assertion they are trying to destruct Iran’s atomic and rocket programmes, but besides enactment that their subject run could pb to the illness of the Iranian governing system, which they accidental would beryllium a invited development.

However, it is wide believed that Israel would request US assistance to destruct Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility, Fordow, which is buried wrong a mountain.

Mortazavi said warfare hawks and Israeli officials look to beryllium making the lawsuit to Trump that bombing Fordow volition beryllium an casual task.

“Instead of a authorities alteration warfare – a devastating, unnecessary warfare with Iran, which helium has been informing everyone and moving against successful his campaigns, they’re conscionable making this look like, ‘Oh, you conscionable usage your bunker busters erstwhile and done.'”

But Iran has promised to retaliate harshly against immoderate US attack.

Thousands of US troops successful the portion could travel nether Iranian rocket strikes. If the warfare escalates, Iran could besides disrupt shipping lanes successful the Gulf – a large lifeline for planetary energy.

Iranian lawmakers person already suggested that Iran could adjacent the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Gulf to the Indian Ocean and done which 20 percent of the world’s lipid flows.

‘Catastrophic’ war

Mortazavi said escalating the struggle volition person “catastrophic” consequences for the region.

“It volition look similar Iraq and Afghanistan combined, if not worse. Iran is simply a large country,” she said.

In Iraq, Bush’s regime-change warfare led to years of sectarian bloodshed and the emergence of groups similar ISIL (ISIS). In Afghanistan, US forces fought for 20 years aft deposing the Taliban from the superior Kabul, lone to spot the radical swiftly return to power arsenic US troops withdrew.

Even if Iran’s governing strategy is toppled nether US and Israeli blows, experts pass that US warfare hawks should beryllium cautious what they privation for.

Iran is simply a state of much than 90 cardinal people. The autumn of the authorities could pb to interior conflict, displacement crises and determination – if not planetary – instability, analysts say.

“This is not a colour revolution. This is going to beryllium warfare and chaos, perchance civilian war, and unrest,” Mortazavi said.

Sarah Leah Whitson, enforcement manager of the rights radical DAWN, said that adjacent if Trump is trying to summation leverage with his threats and is not seeking warfare oregon authorities alteration successful Iran, it’s a risky strategy.

“The possibilities of the assaults connected Iran escalating into not conscionable a broader regional war, but perchance a planetary war, are highly high,” Whitson told Al Jazeera.

“And so, continued belligerence and hostile rhetoric from President Trump is lone throwing substance connected the fire.”