Russia watches on as ally Iran is pummeled — and it's unlikely to go to Tehran's rescue

Russia's effect to Iran's telephone for assistance is being intimately watched connected Monday after the U.S. bombed Tehran's atomic facilities implicit the weekend — but Moscow mightiness not beryllium speedy to connection its state a hand.

The attacks connected Iranian atomic sites, which President Donald Trump described arsenic an "obliteration," has near the Islamic Republic scrambling for enactment from the fewer friends it has connected the planetary stage. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi headed to Moscow connected Monday for "serious consultations" with Russian President Vladimir Putin implicit however to reply the assaults.

Iran has helped Russia with subject drones passim the warfare successful Ukraine, but analysts present accidental determination mightiness beryllium precise small Moscow tin oregon volition to bash to reciprocate.

"Iran has massively supported Putin's warfare against Ukraine with weapons and technology. On his travel to Moscow, Iran's overseas curate Abbas Araghchi whitethorn present inquire Moscow to instrumentality the favour," Holger Schmieding, main economist astatine Berenberg Bank, said successful a enactment Monday.

"However, Putin has astir apt small to connection beyond immoderate words. He needs his weapons himself for his continued aggression against Ukraine," helium noted.

Russia besides has to tread a good enactment betwixt placating and assisting state Iran and keeping the U.S. sweet, arsenic it looks to re-establish ties with Donald Trump's Russia-friendlier administration.

"If Putin were to annoy Trump implicit Iran successful immoderate important way, Trump whitethorn alteration tack and enforce caller dense sanctions connected Russia and/or weaken Putin's presumption successful different ways," Schmieding said.

So far, Moscow's effect to the escalating situation has been muted, with Russia calling connected Iran and Israel to negociate a peaceful extremity to the crisis.

The Iranian struggle could fortify Russia's presumption successful Ukraine modestly, analysts say, arsenic it distracts Western attraction — and perchance resources — distant from Ukraine. Higher lipid prices could besides mean much export gross for lipid shaper Russia's warfare coffers.

At the aforesaid time, Russia is watching connected arsenic different Middle Eastern state is weakened, eroding its ain foothold successful the portion successful the process. Russia has already seen 1 invaluable confederation crumble precocious by mode of past year's ousting of Bashar al Assad's authorities successful Syria putting, which enactment the aboriginal of Moscow's aerial and naval bases successful the state successful doubt.

Russia stands to further suffer retired connected perchance lucrative investments and infrastructure projects, if Iran is severely destabilized. The contented for Moscow is to present gauge however overmuch it has to triumph oregon suffer by helping oregon abandoning Iran.

"Moscow itself appears to beryllium undecided what to marque of a caller warfare successful the Middle East," Nikita Smagin, an adept connected Iranian overseas and home policies astatine the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said successful analysis.

"On the 1 hand, Russia has invested heavy successful assorted projects successful Iran implicit the past 3 years, each of which could present spell to waste. At the aforesaid time, Moscow hopes to payment from Middle Eastern instability done rising lipid prices and declining involvement successful Ukraine."

Ruling retired the anticipation of Russia giving Iran immoderate subject assistance, Smagin said the bigger contented for Moscow is the menace to each the Iranian ventures it has actively invested successful recently, including lipid and state projects, infrastructure and transit routes.

"A fewer days earlier the commencement of the Israeli operation, the Iranian ambassador to Moscow said that Russia was the country's largest overseas capitalist successful 2024. The ambassador did not specify immoderate concern volumes, but Russian investments were estimated at $2.76 cardinal the erstwhile year. Moscow planned to put astir $8 cardinal successful lipid and state projects alone," Smagin said.

"Now the aboriginal of those projects is successful doubt."