Posters to protests: The dynamics of Jordan’s recent elections

Amman, Jordan – In the early hours after election day in Jordan’s capital, the pervasive campaign posters were stripped from the city’s central districts before the preliminary results were announced.

In Paris Square, a bustling hub in the lively neighbourhood of Jabal al-Weibdeh, a few posters still cling to their perches and the occasional black-stained finger of a passer-by hints at the election that just ended.

Tuesday’s elections for Jordan’s House of Representatives came against the backdrop of nearly a year of Israel’s war on Gaza, an issue that resonates deeply with most Jordanians.

Twenty-year-old Lujain, a barista at a cafe, waves her inked finger. It takes a few days for this “proof of voting” to wash away.

This was the first time she had voted, yet many people in Lujain’s immediate circle chose not to participate.

“Elections aren’t viewed as fair. It’s been like this for a long time. There’s a lot of vote buying, ballot tampering and outright fraud,” she said between serving cappuccinos to customers with unmarked fingers.

“That’s why it’s really hard for us Jordanians to trust those who run for parliament. Unfortunately, young people are the least likely to vote.”

The independents vs the opposition

In this election, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, secured 31 seats, significant gains that tripled their representation from 10 in the previous parliament.

Experts had projected that the party would win about 20.

Despite exceeding expectations, “there is no real power” and the IAF will have little political influence, Amer Al Sabaileh, a regional security expert based in Amman, said.

The parliament, he noted, would remain dominated by tribal and pro-government groups with independent politicians holding 104 of the 138 seats.

Independents are candidates unaffiliated to a political party who often represent local interests and tribal affiliations and are seen as symbols of the establishment.

Al Sabaileh attributed the IAF’s success partly to its historical roots.

In 1957, political parties were banned in Jordan and parliamentary elections suspended. The ban lasted until the elections in 1989.

During this time, the Muslim Brotherhood operated as a charitable organisation, providing social services, education and healthcare, which helped it maintain a strong presence in Jordanian society.

It was not until 1992 that the Islamic Action Front was established as the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Amman was filled with campaign posters in the run-up to the elections [Nora Adin Fares/Al Jazeera]

Al Sabaileh added: “The IAF has been able to form a national identity for many years. This was the golden chance for them to gain new ground.”

The other factor behind the IAF’s strong showing belongs to rising anger among Jordanians over Israel’s assault on Gaza and the occupied West Bank, analysts said.

The party, which wields influence on Jordan’s streets, has led several major pro-Palestinian protests since October 7 and advocates for an end to the 1994 peace treaty with Israel.

The protests have been an inconvenience for Jordanian authorities, occurring almost once a week.

According to Al Sabaileh, this shows the IAF can mobilise demonstrations to support their positions in parliament.

“From now on, if there is a struggle within parliament, it could spill over onto the streets,” he said.

At boiling point but low turnout

The elections came as Jordan was at the boiling point.

Two days before polling, a Jordanian gunman killed three Israeli guards at the King Hussein Bridge, also known as the Allenby Bridge, the crossing between Jordan and the West Bank.

That evening, large demonstrations took place in the centre of Amman, partially backed by the IAF, which hailed the 39-year-old shooter as a hero.

While Jordanians are involved in protests for Palestine and murals and posters all over Amman overflow with solidarity, this political engagement did not extend to voter turnout.

Only 32 percent of the 5.1 million eligible voters participated in this year’s general election, a small increase from 29 percent in the 2020 elections but still not a healthy figure.

According to Neil Quilliam, Middle Eastern policy expert at the Chatham House think tank, the disconnect suggests ”there’s no alignment of interests between the public and where the politics are heading.”

However, implementing the election process, Quilliam said, allows the government to project a positive image of a democratic system despite voter apathy that curtails election legitimacy.

“There have been a number of polls over the years indicating that confidence in the political system is limited. … This reflects a lack of faith in the system,” Quilliam added.

A 2023 poll suggested that a majority of Jordanians were dissatisfied with the government’s performance, particularly regarding issues like corruption and limited public participation in decision-making.

Despite these frustrations, King Abdullah II is often viewed as a stabilising figure and a symbol of national unity with many Jordanians differentiating their support for the king from their criticism of the government’s actions.

‘I don’t want to vote’

Most people Al Jazeera spoke to shared a similar sentiment – indifference towards the elections and a belief that their votes make no difference.

A view of Amman [Nora Adin Fares/Al Jazeera]

University student Salem, 23, said he decided not to participate in the polls mainly because of the lack of clarity from political parties about their objectives.

This was the second time he was eligible to vote, but he has no plans to vote in four years either.

“If the parties provided short explainers or videos that told us about their goals, then maybe I would consider it. But as it stands, I don’t want to vote without understanding what I am voting for,” he said, illustrating a generation gap in how the youth want to be addressed as opposed to how the politicians campaign.

Beyond Gaza, Jordanian voters are concerned with issues such as high unemployment, poverty, and corruption allegations, according to a survey by Jordanian authorities conducted this year.

The unemployment crisis is particularly severe among young people with a staggering jobless rate of 40 percent in 2023 among those aged 15 to 24, according to the World Bank.

The election results announced on Wednesday show the war on Gaza and Israel’s military operations are also on voters’ minds, as the IAF’s gains illustrate.

“This election ultimately revolved around the issue of Israel and a growing perception that the monarchy is disconnected from the people,” according to Quilliam.

“Fundamentally, the composition of parliament will remain largely unchanged,” Quilliam said. “Policies from the government will still be implemented, whether they pass through parliament or not.”

Jordanian authorities have tried to tackle several issues.

The National Employment Programme 2022, called Tashgheel, aimed to provide 60,000 jobs for Jordanians in the private sector. In addition, several anticorruption laws were implemented over the years that criminalise bribery and embezzlement.

However, Jordan has not recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic yet. The crisis hit the vital tourism industry particularly hard, and it continues to suffer due to the looming threat of war in the region.

All these issues remain firmly in the hands of the government, which, given its majority in parliament, will be able to continue pushing through proposals and motions without significant interference from the newly stronger opposition.

The success of the IAF reflects the widespread frustration expressed in the streets, where many Jordanians are calling for a decisive end to the government’s treaty with Israel.