Portugal’s government loses confidence vote, setting stage for new election

Portugal could be heading to the polls for the third time in three years as its minority government loses a confidence vote in parliament.

Portugal’s centre-right government has lost a confidence vote in parliament, potentially pushing the European Union (EU) country towards its third general election in three years.

The government “tried everything right up to the last minute to avoid snap elections”, Portugal’s centre-right prime minister, Luis Montenegro, told reporters after the vote on Tuesday evening.

Lawmakers voted 142-88, with zero abstentions, against the motion of confidence that Montenegro presented after the opposition questioned the integrity of his dealings related to a consultancy firm he founded.

Portuguese media reported allegations that the firm, which is now run by Montenegro’s sons, had contracts with several private companies that rely on government contracts.

Montenegro, who had already survived two censure votes, denies any wrongdoing.

“The insinuation that I mixed my business and political activity is completely abusive, and even insulting. A repeated falsehood does not become the truth, but it contaminates the political environment… this is what populism feeds on,” he told parliament before the vote.

Pedro Nuno Santos, the leader of the Socialist Party, the country’s largest opposition party, described the government’s conduct as “shameful”, saying it resorted to “manoeuvres, games, tricks” to survive.

Montenegro became prime minister after socialist Antonio Costa resigned in November 2023 under the shadow of a corruption probe.

Costa, who denies accusations of influence peddling levelled against him, was elected head of the EU’s European Council in June 2024.

Montenegro’s administration will now assume a caretaker role.

Following the vote, it is now up to Portugal’s president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, whether to call a parliamentary election after he consults the main political parties on Wednesday and his advisory Council of State on Thursday.

De Sousa has said a new ballot could be held in mid-May.

Minority governments and rising far-right

Montenegro’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition won elections in March 2024, but held just 80 seats in the country’s 230-seat legislature. The Socialist Party, who had previously held government, won 78 seats.

By contrast, Portugal’s hard-right Chega party gained 50 seats, more than four times the 12 seats it held previously.

At the time, Montenegro ruled out working with Chega, saying “no means no” to forming a government with the party, which has gained votes campaigning on an anti-immigration platform.

Political scientist Adelino Maltez of Lisbon University said opinion polls showed very little change in voter preferences from the March 2024 election. The AD and the Socialists are neck-and-neck in most surveys.

“The problem is that the new election will not be conclusive… The AD and the Socialists are tied. It is a situation that will be difficult for them to navigate,” Maltez said.

A centrist pact between Montenegro’s Social Democrats and the Socialists was the only solution, despite the differences in their policy proposals, he said. The two main rivals only had such an accord in parliament once, between 1983 and 1985.

“If they don’t do it, it will be more of the same instability,” Maltez said.

Tuesday’s no-confidence vote points to the worst spell of political instability since Portugal adopted a democratic system more than 50 years ago in the wake of the 1974 Carnation Revolution, which ended a four-decade dictatorship.

An early election is all but inevitable now but voters are already showing election fatigue and disillusionment with politicians.

“This seems like a joke, no one understands why there’s a new election so soon. Politicians blame each other, but all of them are being irresponsible,” said Joao Brito, a 70-year-old retired civil servant in downtown Lisbon.

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Al Jazeera and news agencies