Late-season Caribbean hurricane expected to hit Cuba this week

If it forms, Rafael would be the 11th hurricane of the 2024 season and could strike western Cuba as a Category 1 storm.

Miami, Florida, United States – A hurricane is expected to form in the Caribbean and bring heavy rain and mudslides to Cuba before heading into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, according to the US National Weather Service.

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Monday as it approaches Jamaica and could also bring heavy rainfall to the Florida Keys and parts of the southeastern US later in the week, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

Jamaica and Cuba could have up to 230mm (9 inches) of rain, potentially causing flooding.

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the capital, Havana, and provinces in eastern Cuba, including Pinar del Rio and Matanzas.

The storm could exacerbate an acute energy crisis in Cuba. Parts of the island have experienced prolonged power outages in recent weeks due to decrepit infrastructure and a lack of fuel for its oil-fired power stations.

Cuba is still recovering from Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall on the eastern end of the island two weeks ago with maximum sustained winds of about 130km/h (80mph).

The new weather system was still only a tropical depression early on Monday and was located about 310km (196 miles) south of Kingston, Jamaica. It had maximum sustained winds of 55km/h (35mph) and was moving north at 15km/h (9mph), the NHC said.

A tropical storm forms when sustained winds reach 63km/h (39mph), and it becomes a hurricane when they reach 119km/h (74mph).

The storm was expected to move near Jamaica late on Monday and is expected to reach hurricane strength before it reaches western Cuba late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday.

Forecasters said the core of the hurricane is forecast to pass west of Florida while adverse atmospheric conditions should prevent Rafael, the 18th named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, from developing into a life-threatening weather system as it approaches the US coast over the Gulf of Mexico.

This hurricane season has seen above average activity with 10 hurricanes already, including two major ones – Helene and Milton – which hit Florida and North Carolina, causing widespread destruction and killing more than 200 people.

Only seven seasons on record have had 11 Atlantic hurricanes by the first week of November, according to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 has formed in the Caribbean and is forecast to become a #hurricane by 6 November. If it does, it would be the 11th of the 2024 Atlantic season. 7 seasons on record have had 11+ Atlantic hurricanes by 6 Nov: 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020. pic.twitter.com/EXYqB5ZLPC

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) November 3, 2024

“It’s worth noting that only four hurricanes in the modern record (since 1966) have been recorded in the Gulf of Mexico in November, so a hurricane here this late in the season would be an unusual event,” noted Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist in Miami and author of the Eye on the Tropics blog.