Israel strikes may make Iran more determined to pursue nuclear programme

Israel’s attacks connected Iranian atomic and subject sites people a important escalation successful determination tensions, and whitethorn reshape Tehran’s atomic calculus.

The coordinated strikes killed respective elder subject and information officials, including the caput of Iran’s subject Mohammad Bagheri, and the caput of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami.

“One of the concerns successful attacking the atomic sites has been that setbacks could pb Iran to reconstitute their operations with a much determined effort to get a atomic deterrent,” said Ali Vaez, an adept connected Iran for the International Crisis Group (ICG).

Sceptics validated

Iran has agelong had an interior statement among reformers and hardliners astir whether to scope an statement with the United States connected its atomic programme.

“[The attacks] apt confirmed the presumption of hardliners and ultra hardliners who said that Iran was wasting its clip to effort and negociate with the West … they said Iran tin ne'er negociate from a presumption of weakness and appeasement,” said Reza H Akbari, an expert connected Iran astatine the Middle East Institute (MEI).

Talks betwixt Iran and the US person suffered from a ample spot shortage aft President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled retired of the atomic woody betwixt Iran and respective Western nations, known arsenic the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), during his archetypal word successful 2018.

The JCPOA was orchestrated by Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama and endorsed by the United Nations Security Council successful 2015.

It aimed to show Iran’s atomic programme to guarantee it did not attack weaponisation levels. In exchange, immoderate sanctions were lifted from Iran.

While the woody was lauded arsenic an accomplishment of diplomacy, Israel disapproved of the JCPOA. Ten years later, the US and Iran appeared funny successful striking different akin deal.

The erstwhile ostensibly did not privation to get dragged into a determination warfare arsenic tensions mounted crossed the Middle East, portion the second was again looking for much-needed authorisation relief.

But Israel’s strikes connected Iran, which were reportedly planned months successful beforehand and with US approval, person scuttled immoderate diplomatic solution successful the abbreviated term, said Akbari.

“It’s hard to ideate that idiosyncratic successful the shoes of Iran’s ultimate person [Ali Khamenei] is not taking the broadside of hardliners aft this,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a gathering successful Tehran, Iran, May 20, 2025 [File: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA/Handout via Reuters]

No different options

In effect to Israel’s strikes, Iran has launched drones and ballistic missiles astatine Israel, with immoderate hitting targets connected the ground.

In the past, Iran’s deterrence against outer aggression relied chiefly connected its self-described “Axis of Resistance”.

The axis consisted of almighty equipped groups crossed the region, specified arsenic Lebanon’s Hezbollah, arsenic good arsenic Syria nether erstwhile President Bashar al-Assad.

However, Hezbollah’s capabilities were degraded significantly during the highest of its caller warfare with Israel, which lasted from September to precocious November past year.

Al-Assad’s autumn successful December, the culmination of a much than decade-long civilian warfare successful Syria, besides compromised Iran’s quality to resupply Hezbollah done Syria, arsenic it utilized to do.

Trump is present exploiting Iran’s weakness by urging it to capitulate to a woody that would spot it springiness up its atomic programme, said Michael Stephens, an adept connected determination effect to Iran’s atomic programme with the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), a defence deliberation tank.

On Friday, Trump posted connected Truth Social that Iran indispensable marque a woody earlier determination is “nothing left” of the state and that the adjacent Israeli attacks volition beryllium adjacent “more brutal”.

Later that evening, Israel carried retired much aerial strikes connected Iran’s subject sites and atomic facilities.

“There are nary bully options for [Iran] really,” said Stephens.

“Either Khamenei … orders his negotiators to compromise connected the atomic record oregon … helium holds steadfast [and] much sites are deed and further targeted assassinations of high-level officials instrumentality place,” helium told Al Jazeera.

“Either way, if Iran decides to sprint towards a bomb, it’s going to beryllium very, precise hard to bash that now,” helium added.

Last stand

Despite Iran’s subject weakness compared with the US and Israel, it is wary of giving up its atomic programme, analysts told Al Jazeera.

Negar Mortazavi, an adept connected Iran with the Middle East Policy Institute (MEPI), said Iranian officials person agelong referred to the destiny of erstwhile Libyan person Muammar Gaddafi, who agreed to springiness up his atomic weapons programme successful speech for US authorisation alleviation successful 2003.

The woody came aft the US President George W Bush had launched his alleged “War connected Terror” aft the September 11, 2001, attacks, which led to the penetration and prolonged concern of Iraq and Afghanistan.

At the time, Bush warned his partners and foes successful the portion that they were either “with america oregon against us”.

Former US President George W. Bush, right, with Vice President Dick Cheney astatine his side, speaks during a gathering with legislature leaders successful the White House Oval Office connected September 18, 2002 [File: Doug Mills/AP]

Eight years aft Gaddafi gave up his atomic programme, the US backed a pro-democracy uprising successful Libya, which spiralled into an equipped rebellion and led to Gaddafi’s overthrow and eventual death.

“The [Libya] script is thing that Iran has taken announcement of, and they don’t privation to spell down that path,” Mortazavi explained.

She added that Iran whitethorn apt propulsion retired from the JCPOA and effort to rapidly grow its atomic programme successful absorption to Israel’s ongoing assault.

“Just however acold and however soon Iran volition grow its atomic programme is unclear,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.