Israel’s strategic failure is now apparent

Since the mid-1960s, Israel has received important subject and diplomatic enactment from successive administrations successful the United States. But ne'er has it enjoyed specified unconditional enactment arsenic it has successful the past 8 years – nether the archetypal and 2nd administrations of President Donald Trump and the medication of President Joe Biden. As a result, Israel has started openly pursuing its top Zionist dream: expanding authorities borders to execute Greater Israel and accelerating the taste cleansing of the Palestinian radical from their homeland.

Although the Israeli authorities whitethorn look much almighty than ever and overly assured that it volition execute determination dominance, its existent presumption paradoxically reflects a strategical failure.

The world is that aft astir 8 decades of existence, Israel has failed to execute legitimacy successful the eyes of the region’s peoples and lasting information for itself. Its contiguous resurgence volition unafraid neither. And that is due to the fact that its foreign, home and subject policies are based connected a settler-colonial logic which makes them untenable successful the agelong run.

Settler-colonial mentality

Since its founding successful 1948, Israel has sought to person the satellite and its Jewish citizens that it was created “on a onshore without a people”. While this communicative has successfully caught connected – peculiarly among the younger generations of Israelis – the forefathers of the Israeli authorities openly spoke astir “colonisation” and settling a onshore with a hostile autochthonal population.

Theodor Herzl, considered the begetter of modern Zionism, planned to scope out to well-known British colonialist Cecil Rhodes, who led the British colonisation of Southern Africa, for proposal connected and support of his program to colonise Palestine.

Vladimir Jabotinsky, a revisionist Zionist who founded the far-right Zionist radical Betar successful Latvia, strategised successful his writings connected ways to code autochthonal resistance. In his 1923 effort The Iron Wall, helium wrote:

“Every autochthonal colonisation successful the satellite resists colonists arsenic agelong arsenic it has the slightest anticipation of being capable to escaped itself of the information of being colonised. That is what the Arabs successful Palestine are doing.”

This settler-colonial mentality played a cardinal relation successful shaping the domestic, overseas and subject policies of the recently founded Israel. Today, astir 80 years aft the instauration of the Israeli state, expansionism and assertive subject posturing proceed to specify the Israeli determination strategy.

Despite authoritative rhetoric astir seeking bid and normalisation of relations successful the region, the Israeli aspiration to execute a Greater Israel – 1 that includes not lone occupied Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, but besides parts of modern-day Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan – persists.

That has been evident successful nationalist sermon and authorities actions. Settler activists person openly talked astir an Israel stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates river. Government advisers have penned articles astir “reconquering Sinai”, “dismembering Egypt” and precipitating the “dissolution of Jordan”. Prime ministers person stood successful beforehand of the United Nations General Assembly, holding maps of Greater Israel.

The thought of Greater Israel has been wide accepted crossed the Zionist governmental spectrum, some connected the close and connected the left. The superior differences person been successful however and erstwhile to beforehand this vision, and whether it requires the expulsion of Palestinians oregon their segregation.

Expansionist policies person been applied nether each Israeli governments – from those led by left-wing Mapai Labor to those led by right-wing Likud. Since the 1949 armistice, Israel has occupied the West Bank, Gaza, East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, Sinai (twice), confederate Lebanon (twice) and present astir recently, much parts of confederate Syria.

Meanwhile, its colonisation of the occupied Palestinian territories has proceeded astatine an accelerated pace. The fig of Jewish assemblage settlers successful the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, was astir 250,000 successful 1993; by October 7, 2023, this fig had risen to 503,732 successful the West Bank and 233,600 successful East Jerusalem.

Settlements successful Gaza were dismantled successful 2005, but plans are being made for recolonisation, arsenic the existent Israeli authorities eyes the afloat taste cleansing of the strip.

Today, determination is nary large governmental unit successful Israel that looks beyond the nonstop exertion of bare subject powerfulness to support and support colonisation activities. This mindset is not constricted to politicians but is besides a wide condemnation among the Israeli public.

A June 2024 survey found that 70 percent of Jewish Israelis deliberation settlements either assistance nationalist information oregon bash not interfere with it; a March 2025 poll showed that 82 percent of Jewish Israelis enactment the taste cleansing of Palestinians successful Gaza.

No genuine bid camp

The settler-colonial mindset astatine the halfway of the Israeli authorities has precluded the emergence of a genuine thrust for peace. As a result, successive Israeli governments person continued to prosecute war, colonisation and expansion, adjacent erstwhile seemingly embracing bid talks.

In the 1990s, Israel had the accidental to resoluteness the Arab-Israeli struggle by withdrawing from the territories occupied successful 1967 and accepting the instauration of an autarkic Palestinian state. Instead, it utilized the negotiations arsenic a smokescreen to beforehand settler-colonial policies.

Even leaders similar Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was hailed arsenic a peacemaker and assassinated for it by a Jewish extremist, did not truly envision Israelis and Palestinians surviving broadside by side. Under his authorities and during the bid negotiations, the enlargement of Jewish settlements continued astatine a dependable pace, portion plans for a segregation partition connected occupied Palestinian onshore were pushed forward.

Meanwhile, Rabin and different Israeli leaders progressive successful the bid negotiations focused chiefly connected normalising Israel’s beingness arsenic it was, without addressing the basal causes of the conflict. They sought to pacify Palestinian resistance, alternatively than found durable peace.

The lack of a bid campy is not lone astatine the enactment level but besides astatine the societal one. While the Israeli nine has progressive movements for societal causes, settlers’ coalitions, and present a question pushing for continuing the captive exchanges with Hamas, it lacks a genuine grassroots bid question that recognises Palestinian rights.

This is successful crisp opposition to different settler-colonial societies, successful which determination was a propulsion from wrong to extremity colonialism. During the French colonisation of Algeria, for example, an anti-colonial question wrong France openly supported the Algerian equipped resistance. During the apartheid epoch successful South Africa, achromatic activists joined the anti-apartheid conflict and helped sway home attitudes.

In Israel, Jewish supporters of Palestinian rights are truthful fewer that they are easy ostracised and marginalised, facing decease threats and often feeling compelled to permission the country.

The lack of a genuine bid campy reflects the inherent flaw of settler-colonial Israel. It has nary coherent governmental strategy to code broader issues, specified arsenic coexistence successful the region, which requires acknowledging the interests of others, particularly the nationalist rights of the Palestinian people. This makes the settler colony incapable of peace.

Overreliance connected Western support

Historically, settler-colonies person ever had to trust connected extracurricular enactment to prolong themselves. Israel is nary different. For decades, it has enjoyed far-reaching enactment from Western Europe and the United States, which person provided it with a important strategical edge.

But this Israeli reliance connected Western backing besides poses a semipermanent strategical threat. It makes the state babelike and incapable to relation similar a mean sovereign nation.

Other countries successful the portion volition proceed to beryllium adjacent if they suffer enactment from their Western allies, with lone their regimes perchance changing. But that is not the lawsuit for Israel.

This unlimited and extravagant enactment for Israel, aimed astatine maintaining its dominance arsenic the superior determination power, is apt to backfire.

The increasing imbalance of powerfulness is generating unit not lone connected antagonist countries similar Iran, but connected different determination players specified arsenic Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. They progressively consciousness that the Western propulsion to support Israeli interests is infringing connected their own.

This concern is apt to propulsion them to progressively question alliances beyond the Western bloc to counterbalance this influence. China offers a viable alternative, arsenic it is not a strategical state of Israel.

A gradual opening to China tin displacement the governmental dynamics of the portion successful the coming years, beyond the capableness of Israel and its allies to power them. That volition surely undermine the Israeli plans to found determination hegemony.

But Israel faces not lone the hazard that Western dominance could beryllium challenged from the East, but besides that Western societies could unit their governments to halt backing it.

The Israeli genocidal policies, particularly since October 7, 2023, person spurred a profound displacement successful nationalist sentiment crossed the world, including successful Europe and North America.

Israel stands accused of genocide astatine the International Court of Justice, its premier curate has an apprehension warrant from the International Criminal Court and Israeli soldiers are facing charges successful galore countries astir the world.

As a result, the Israeli authorities has notably mislaid enactment among those connected the near and centre of the governmental spectrum successful the West.

While it inactive manages to support backing successful high-level European and American governmental and subject circles, this enactment is becoming progressively unreliable successful the agelong term. This uncertainty is further aggravated by the rise of isolationism connected the close successful the US. If these trends continue, Israel whitethorn yet tally retired of dependable supporters successful the West and suffer its fiscal and subject advantage.

The limits of the Israeli settler-colonial authorities strategy are progressively becoming clear. The continued usage of settler-colonial policies, characterised by excessive violence, on with the pursuit of determination hegemony, is pushing Israel into an untenable position.

The Israeli enactment whitethorn beryllium surviving successful a phantasy world, reasoning it tin propulsion disconnected a “New World” exemplary connected Palestine and exterminate its colonisation to afloat colonise it; oregon to state itself officially an apartheid state, seeking to marque Palestinian subjugation legal.

But successful the humanities and geopolitical discourse of the Middle East, neither of these fantasies is viable. Global unit is coming to bear. The expulsion of the radical of Gaza has been outright rejected.

The Palestinian people, similar immoderate different federation that has survived brutal colonisation, volition not permission their state and disappear, nor volition they judge beingness nether a assemblage apartheid regime.

Israeli leaders whitethorn bash good to commencement imagining the precise existent anticipation of sharing onshore and accepting adjacent rights, and commencement preparing the Israeli nine for it.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.