Israel-Iran conflict exposed China’s ‘limited leverage’, say analysts

Through the 12 days of the caller Israel-Iran conflict, China moved rapidly to presumption itself arsenic a imaginable mediator and dependable of crushed amid a spiralling determination crisis.

The time aft Israel’s unprovoked onslaught connected Iran connected June 13, Beijing reached retired to some sides to explicit its tendency for a mediated solution adjacent arsenic the country’s apical diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, condemned Israel’s actions arsenic a usurpation of planetary law.

Chinese President Xi Jinping soon followed with calls for de-escalation, portion astatine the United Nations Security Council, China joined Russia and Pakistan successful calling for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire”.

When Iran threatened to blockade the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, done which 20 percent of the world’s lipid passes, Beijing was besides speedy to talk out.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs alternatively called for the “international assemblage to measurement up efforts to de-escalate conflicts and forestall determination turmoil from having a greater interaction connected planetary economical development”.

Beijing’s stance passim the struggle remained existent to its longstanding noninterference attack to overseas hostilities. But experts accidental it did small to assistance enactment up its ambition of becoming an influential subordinate successful the Middle East, and alternatively exposed the limitations of its clout successful the region.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, centre, welcomes Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, right, and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, left, earlier a gathering regarding the Iranian atomic contented connected March 14, 2025, successful Beijing, China [Pool via Reuters]

Why China was worried

Unlike immoderate countries, and the United States successful particular, China traditionally approaches overseas argumentation “through a lens of strategical pragmatism alternatively than ideological solidarity”, said Evangeline Cheng, a probe subordinate astatine the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.

This attack means China volition ever absorption connected protecting its economical interests, of which it has galore successful the Middle East, Cheng told Al Jazeera.

China has investments successful Israel’s burgeoning tech assemblage and its Belt and Road infrastructure task spans Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Critically, China relies connected the Middle East for much than fractional of its crude lipid imports, and it’s the apical user of Iranian oil. A protracted warfare would person disrupted its lipid supplies, arsenic would an Iranian blockade of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz – thing threatened by Tehran’s parliament during the conflict.

“War and information instability not lone undermines Chinese concern and commercialized and business… but besides the lipid terms and state vigor information successful general,” said Alam Saleh, a elder Lecturer successful Iranian Studies astatine the Australian National University.

“Therefore, China seeks stability, and it disagrees and opposes immoderate benignant of subject solution for immoderate benignant of struggle and confrontations, nary substance with whom,” helium said.

John Gong, a prof of economics astatine the University of International Business and Economics successful Beijing, told Al Jazeera that China’s apical interest done the struggle was to debar “skyrocketing lipid prices” that would endanger its vigor security.

Flexing diplomatic muscle, protecting economical might

Aware of China’s affable relations with Iran and Beijing’s economical fears, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called connected Beijing to support Tehran from closing the Strait of Hormuz arsenic ceasefire negotiations stumbled guardant this week.

It was a little infinitesimal of acknowledgement of Beijing’s influence, but experts accidental China’s wide diplomatic power remains limited.

“China’s connection to mediate highlights its tendency to beryllium seen arsenic a liable planetary player, but its existent leverage remains limited,” Cheng said. “Without subject capabilities oregon heavy governmental power successful the region, and with Israel wary of Beijing’s ties to Iran, China’s relation is needfully constrained.”

To beryllium sure, Beijing has demonstrated its quality to broker large diplomatic deals successful the region. In 2023, it mediated the normalisation of relations betwixt Iran and Saudi Arabia. While seen arsenic a immense diplomatic triumph for China, experts accidental Beijing owed overmuch of its occurrence to chap mediators, Oman and Iraq. China besides mediated an agreement betwixt Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, successful July 2024, nether which they committed to moving unneurotic connected Gaza’s governance aft the extremity of Israel’s ongoing warfare connected the enclave.

But William Yang, a elder expert for Northeast Asia astatine the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said the likelihood were stacked against China from the opening of the latest struggle owed to Israel’s wariness towards its narration with Iran.

In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year “strategic partnership”, and Iran is an progressive subordinate successful the Belt and Road project. Iran has besides joined the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and this twelvemonth took portion successful China’s “Maritime Security Belt” naval exercises.

Iran’s “resolute absorption to American hegemony” besides aligns good with China’s diplomatic interests much broadly, compared with Israel’s adjacent ties to the US, Yang said.

Iran’s precocious Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, left, and Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, right, and China’s then-Foreign Minister Qin Gang during a gathering successful Beijing, China, successful April 2023 [Handout/Iran’s Foreign Ministry/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters]

China’s dilemma

It’s a script that could beryllium repeated successful the future, helium said.

“This lawsuit besides reinforces the dilemma that China faces: portion it wants to beryllium viewed arsenic a large powerfulness that is susceptible of mediating successful large planetary conflicts, its adjacent narration with circumstantial parties successful immoderate of the ongoing conflicts diminishes Beijing’s quality to play specified a role,” Yang said.

For now, Beijing volition proceed to trust connected the US arsenic a information guarantor successful the region, helium added.

“It’s wide that China volition proceed to absorption connected deepening economical engagement with countries successful the Middle East portion taking vantage of the US beingness successful the region, which remains the superior information guarantor for determination countries,” Yang said.

“On the different hand, the US engagement successful the conflict, including changing the people of the warfare by bombing Iranian atomic sites, creates the information for China to instrumentality the motivation precocious crushed successful the diplomatic sphere and contiguous itself arsenic the much restrained, calm and liable large power,” helium said.