Is the 12-day Israel-Iran war really over – and who gained what?

Since Sunday, the Middle East has lurched from escalating warfare to fragile ceasefire. A truce seems to beryllium holding, and what US President Donald Trump called “The 12 Day War” betwixt Israel and Iran seems to beryllium implicit – for now.

Meanwhile, Trump, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran’s leaders person each claimed that the intermission successful the struggle happened connected their terms.

So, what’s the truth? What did Israel achieve? Did Iran negociate to support its strategical assets? And is the truce a pathway to peace?

How did events unfold?

Late connected Saturday night, astatine Israel’s behest, the US entered the Israeli-Iranian warfare with strikes connected Iran’s atomic facilities astatine Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, “completely obliterating” them, successful Trump’s words.

On Monday, Iran struck back, firing missiles astatine the largest US airbase successful the Middle East, Al Udeid successful Qatar.

It appeared arsenic though the Middle East was poised for a broader, longer war.

But wrong hours, Trump announced connected Truth Social, his societal media platform, “It has been afloat agreed by and betwixt Israel and Iran that determination volition beryllium a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE.”

Trump called it “the 12 Day War … that could person gone connected for years and destroyed the Middle East”.

Four hours aft the ceasefire was expected to instrumentality effect, Israel launched a onslaught against Iran successful retaliation for what it said were 2 ballistic missiles entering its airspace, launched from Iran. Both were intercepted. Israel’s retaliation destroyed a radar presumption adjacent Tehran.

Trump was furious. “I’m truly unhappy that Israel went retired this morning,” helium told reporters.

“We’ve got 2 countries that person been warring truthful hard and for truthful long, that they don’t cognize what the f*** they’re doing.”

Iran said it did not occurrence those missiles. By 11:30 GMT the ceasefire was backmost successful effect. Trump spoke to Netanyahu.

“ISRAEL is not going to onslaught Iran. All planes volition crook astir and caput home, portion doing a affable ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran. Nobody volition beryllium hurt, the Ceasefire is successful effect!” Trump wrote connected Truth Social.

What did Israel achieve?

Israel has agelong claimed that Iran is its fig 1 existential threat, but it has ne'er earlier struck Tehran’s atomic facilities.

On June 13, it crossed that reddish line, bombing the aboveground installations of the Natanz substance enrichment works and the Isfahan atomic technological complex. Iran retaliated by launching drones and missiles astatine Israel.

Israel had struck atomic installations successful Syria and Iraq before, but it has present proved it tin transportation retired a analyzable ngo overmuch further afield.

It besides withstood international accusations that its ngo wasn’t legal. Israel claims it was anticipatory self-defence, but not everyone agrees that Iran is processing a atomic bomb, oregon that it planned to usage it against Israel imminently.

“I talk with satellite leaders and they are precise impressed by our determination and the achievements of our forces,” Netanyahu said connected June 18.

Finally, Israel proved it tin person the US to participate a constricted Middle Eastern violative it has started. In erstwhile wars successful 1967 and 1973, the US had provided worldly enactment to Israel erstwhile it was attacked, but had not assisted it with nonstop operational involvement.

Netanyahu thanked Trump for “standing alongside us”.

Operation Rising Lion against Iran took spot successful the aftermath of conflicts that Israel has waged against Iran’s determination allies – the Houthis successful Yemen, Hamas successful Gaza and Hezbollah successful Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah person been weakened implicit the past 2 years.

Did Iran negociate to support its atomic programme?

Israel managed to importantly harm aboveground targets successful Iran, and the US claims to person destroyed underground atomic facilities.

But portion outer photography shows that their missiles deed their mark, determination is nary autarkic confirmation disposable to verify what was destroyed. That volition request on-site inspections.

“At this time, nary 1 – including the IAEA – is successful a presumption to person afloat assessed the underground harm astatine Fordow,” said Rafael Grossi, manager of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations atomic watchdog, connected Monday, aft the US strikes. “Given the explosive payload utilized, and the utmost vibration-sensitive quality of centrifuges, precise important harm is expected to person occurred,” helium said.

Also chartless are the whereabouts of 400 kilogrammes (880 pounds) of highly enriched uranium that the IAEA has said Iran present possesses.

Mohammad Eslami, the caput of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation, suggested the atomic programme would look unscathed. “Preparations for betterment had already been anticipated, and our program is to forestall immoderate interruption successful accumulation oregon services,” helium said connected Tuesday successful a connection carried by the semi-official Mehr quality agency.

Meanwhile, disorder lingers implicit the root of 2 ballistic missiles that deed Israel connected Tuesday morning, 3 and a fractional hours aft the ceasefire began. Iran’s authorities officially denied having launched the missiles.

So who did? And were they fired accidentally – similar the Iranian rocket that accidentally brought down a Ukrainian rider level successful 2021, sidesplitting 176 people?

How apt is different onslaught connected Iran?

What Israel and Iran person agreed to is simply a ceasefire. They haven’t made peace.

On Iran’s atomic programme, experts accidental that determination are – broadly speaking – 2 imaginable aboriginal paths.

Renewed UN inspections of Iranian atomic facilities and a caller pact with Iran, possibly resembling erstwhile US President Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of 2015, mightiness assistance Tehran easiness planetary unit connected its programme, though it was Trump who pulled retired of the JCPOA, not Iran.

This is wherever European powers tin play a role. Three of them, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi connected June 20, on with the European Union’s overseas argumentation chief, Kaja Kallas, successful an effort to avert US strikes. That bid failed, but though the EU cannot unsocial leverage Iran into a compromise, it tin enactment arsenic a counterpoint to US-Israeli hard power.

“Iran volition effort to impact the Europeans diplomatically by proposing enhanced monitoring and making commitments successful its atomic programme,” Ioannis Kotoulas, an adjunct lecturer successful geopolitics astatine Athens University, told Al Jazeera.

“The US could judge a peaceful atomic programme – [US Secretary of State Marco] Rubio has already said so. The likelihood is that the US won’t effort to unit authorities change,” helium said. “Europe is present Iran’s lone mode out. Russia is unreliable.”

But Israel has antecedently tried to scupper immoderate atomic woody betwixt the West and Iran, and is improbable yo judge a caller agreement.

And volition Iran adjacent beryllium unfastened to a compromise, aft the US pulled retired of its erstwhile atomic woody with Tehran, past changed goalposts during caller talks, and yet joined Israel successful bombing Iranian atomic facilities portion they were expected to beryllium negotiating an agreement?

“That truly depends connected dynamics wrong the state and however immoderate climbdown is phrased, but determination person already been calls to cease uranium enrichment from activists wrong the country,” Ali Ansari, a prof of Iranian past astatine St Andrews University, told Al Jazeera.

So far, Iran sounds unyielding successful the pursuit of its atomic programme.

On Monday, the nationalist information committee of Iran’s parliament approved a measure pushing for the afloat suspension of Tehran’s practice with the IAEA if approved successful a plenary session.

Meanwhile, Trump emphasised connected Tuesday connected societal media that helium would not let Iran’s atomic programme to resume.

If that cardinal hostility remains intact, different circular of strikes and counterstrikes that suck successful the US mightiness lone beryllium a substance of time.