Is Pakistan set for new Khan vs government showdown after PTI arrests?

Islamabad, Pakistan – The arrest of several legislators and leaders of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party in overnight police raids could trigger yet another showdown between the opposition and the government, analysts have said.

The politicians belonging to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party were arrested on the premises of Pakistan’s parliament late on Monday, a day after the PTI held a rally on the outskirts of capital Islamabad to demand Khan’s release from prison.

Khan was imprisoned in August last year on several charges. Though his conviction in most cases has either been overturned or suspended, the 71-year-old cricketer-turned-politician continues to remain in jail, facing trial in other cases.

Several rights groups have called for Khan’s release, calling his detention “arbitrary”. A recent indication by the government and the army that Khan could be tried in a military court has further angered the PTI.

Videos on social media showed police officers pushing PTI leaders into vehicles at the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, after its session concluded on Monday evening. Similar raids were reported from other locations in Islamabad.

While the police said it had arrested four PTI politicians, including its chairman Gohar Ali Khan, the party claims at least 13 leaders were taken into custody.

“Armed, masked men entered the parliament premises and arrested several more party lawmakers,” the PTI’s Sayed Zulfi Bukhari told Al Jazeera. “Many of our lawmakers are currently in hiding, while some are missing after the raid. This is a shocking development and a dark day for democracy.”

The crackdown came a day after PTI’s rally in Islamabad, which was attended by thousands of people who came from all over the country.

It was the party’s first show of strength since the controversial general elections in February this year, in which candidates backed by Khan’s party won the most seats (93) but failed to form a government.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) who won 75 and 54 seats respectively, formed a coalition government with the help of other smaller parties.

The PTI has alleged the elections were rigged and several other countries had raised “serious concerns” about the fairness of the vote. But election authorities in Pakistan denied the charges.

PTI said Sunday’s rally – originally scheduled for August 22 but delayed over security concerns – was held despite several obstacles imposed by the government, including a proposed law on banning public gatherings and rallies in the capital.

‘Chokehold of martial law’

As the rally went past the original deadline of 7pm local time (14:00 GMT) to end the rally, minor clashes between police and the crowd took place, with authorities alleging stone-pelting from the crowd whereas the PTI claimed that the police fired tear gas shells at the public.

Addressing the rally, Ali Amin Gandapur, the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and a top PTI leader, said, “If Imran Khan is not released in the next two weeks, we will personally intervene to secure his release.”

Such political comments that directly challenge the authority of Pakistan’s security forces often trigger a sharp backlash in a country where the powerful military has directly ruled the country for nearly 30 years and wields political influence even when civilian governments are in office.

PTI supporters take part in a rally on the outskirts of Islamabad on September 8, 2024 [Farooq Naeem/AFP]

On Monday evening, Gandapur was initially reported as missing, but his brother Faisal Amin Khan, also a PTI legislator, later told reporters he was able to establish contact with him.

PTI leader Bukhari told Al Jazeera on Tuesday that Gandapur was invited by the military on Monday to discuss law and order matters, but was allegedly detained without consent.

“He was held for hours without contact with his staff or the party. Even his security personnel were unaware of his location. He was eventually released around 4am [local time on Tuesday; 23:00 GMT on Monday],” Bukhari said, calling the government’s action “desperate”.

“We cannot accept our parliamentarians being arrested from within the parliament while attending [house] sessions. This is unacceptable. The chokehold of martial law is becoming more evident in Pakistan,” he said, adding that PTI will call for nationwide protests against the arrests.

The army’s media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), has not yet responded to Al Jazeera’s queries about Bukhari’s allegations.

Meanwhile, the speaker of the National Assembly, Ayaz Sadiq, from the governing PML-N, condemned the arrests of the PTI leaders and demanded their release.

“We must take a stand against what has happened in the parliament,” Sadiq said on Tuesday. “If necessary, I will file an FIR.” An FIR refers to the first information report, or complaint, filed to the police over an incident.

Political analyst Talat Hussain said arrests were “surprising and hugely embarrassing” for the government.

“The PTI leaders were on the backfoot after Gandapur’s outbursts,” he told Al Jazeera. But the arrests, he said, would give the party “more propaganda material against the establishment”. In Pakistan, the “establishment” is a euphemism for the military.

However, Hussain said, he did not expect tensions to escalate into new violence.

Mustafa Nawaz Khokar, a former member of Pakistan’s Senate, the upper house of parliament, said the PTI retained broad public support despite a crackdown that the party has faced since the May 9 protests last year, after Khan was briefly detained for less than 48 hours.

The protests last year saw attacks on government properties, including military installations. Thousands of PTI workers, as well as party leaders were arrested. The vast majority of them were allowed to let go, but more than 100 people were tried by military courts on charges of rioting.

“The PTI’s political base is in disarray, but public support remains high. Politicians must move away from reliance on the security establishment and find a way to resolve this escalating crisis,” Khokar told Al Jazeera.

Lahore-based political commentator Majid Nizami said he doubted a showdown between the PTI and the government was imminent, suggesting instead that the PTI might face more state aggression.

“The events of the last 48 hours show that PTI will face more hardships. They might see more people being arrested,” he told Al Jazeera.

Ex-Senator Khokar said the arrest of PTI leaders from inside the parliament grounds “lowers the bar of an already fragile democracy” in Pakistan.