Hurricane Milton timeline: Where and when will it make landfall in Florida?

Hurricane Milton, now an intense Category 5 storm, is moving towards Florida.

Forecasters anticipate it will weaken to Category 3 or 4 before making landfall along the state’s Central Gulf Coast, where it has the potential to become one of the most devastating storms on record.

The hurricane is expected to strike the densely populated Tampa Bay area with full force, less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene battered the state.

Here’s what we know about Hurricane Milton and its projected path:

What is Hurricane Milton?

Hurricane Milton is an intense tropical storm that has already affected the Yucatan Peninsula as it moved through the Gulf of Mexico.

In Yucatan, images showed coastal flooding, while strong winds brought down trees, causing power outages, but Governor Joaquin Diaz said that most of the reported damage had been minor.

Milton marks the ninth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. On average, the Atlantic basin experiences about seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes each year.

This is the second Category 5 hurricane of the season, following Hurricane Beryl, the first storm of the 2024 Atlantic season.

Fed by warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Milton became the third-fastest intensifying storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Monday, as it surged from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours.

Its current speed is 161mph (260km/h).

Authorities use the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale to classify storms. The scale divides hurricanes into five categories based on their sustained wind speeds.

The highest is Category 5, which means a storm that has a sustained wind speed of 157mph (253km/h) or higher. Category 5 storms usually mean “catastrophic damage,” according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

#Milton is the fastest Atlantic hurricane to intensify from a Tropical Depression to a Category 5 Hurricane, taking just over 48 hours. This animation shows Milton as it intensified, with the heaviest rains (red) concentrated near the center. https://t.co/uXpdGH1yEd pic.twitter.com/YWwrpgQcTe

— NASA Earth (@NASAEarth) October 8, 2024

When and where is Milton expected to hit?

In anticipation of the hurricane, Florida declared a state of emergency and issued evacuation orders, resulting in one of the largest evacuation efforts in the state’s history.

As of Tuesday, about 5.9 million people were under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders, including people in 11 Florida counties.

Although the storm was not expected to make direct landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, its proximity prompted residents to take precautionary measures. Classes were suspended, some municipalities halted economic activities, and the National Guard mobilised support brigades, vehicles and rescue equipment. Preventive patrols were also carried out in vulnerable communities and neighbourhoods across Yucatan’s municipalities.

Here is how the storm has progressed – and the expected forecast:

Tuesday, 5:00 EDT (09:00 GMT)

On Tuesday morning, Hurricane Milton was across the northern coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

According to the NHC, while Milton was in Mexico “damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves [were] expected.”

The storm was moving at 12mph (19km/h) over the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and had maximum sustained winds of 155mph (250km/h), the NHC said.

Wednesday, 02:00 EDT (06:00 GMT)

On Wednesday morning, Milton will be in the northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula and northwest of Cuba.

Authorities in Cuba have announced that ocean surges and coastal flooding are expected to affect Havana on Wednesday, including the city’s iconic seafront boulevard.

Around this time the wind speed is projected to be 155mph (250km/h).

The storm’s intensity is projected to vary over the next 36 hours, eventually weakening slightly to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane before making landfall on Florida’s west coast.

Wednesday, 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT)

Hurricane Milton will be nearing Florida’s Gulf Coast.

The Weather Prediction Center has warned that landfall could be accompanied by “widespread and numerous instances of flash flooding” with a high probability of “life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding”.

The storm surge forecast, the rise in seawater level caused solely by a storm, for Tampa Bay predicts an increase of 10 to 15 feet of inundation for the area from Anclote River to Tampa Bay. Milton is expected to make landfall late on Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

BREAKING: The storm surge for Hurricane Milton is expected to be 15 feet.

To give you an idea of how deadly this is, here's what 9 feet looks like:pic.twitter.com/0SxfrA9XK3 https://t.co/56ZLtpOIbi

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 8, 2024

Thursday, 02:00 EDT (06:00 GMT)

Around this time, Milton is expected to make landfall sustaining winds of 133mph (215km/h), likely as a Category 4 storm.

The hurricane is expected to hit the west-central coast of Florida and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Officials have warned that even a slight shift in the storm’s track could significantly alter the location of the most severe storm surge.

Thursday, 20:00 EDT (00:00 GMT)

According to the forecast at this time the hurricane will become a Category 1 storm with winds sustaining at 86mph (140km/h).

It will remain a hurricane as it crosses Florida. By that time, the storm will be positioned off the eastern coast of Florida.

Some of the areas that might be affected by rainfall are Tampa, Sarasota, Fort Myers and Orlando, with Tampa expected to be the most affected by it with 8 to 12 inches (200mm – 300mm) of rainwater.

How has the warm weather affected Milton?

Hurricanes are weather events that feed off the heat of tropical waters.

Warm seawater evaporates, lifting into the air. If warm winds blowing over the ocean collide, they yank the hot air from evaporated water upwards, creating a storm with low pressure in its centre. The Earth’s natural rotation makes the storm spin.

At higher heights, the vapour condenses in the form of warm rain, which further heats up the surrounding air. This sets in motion a cycle, with warm air and water sucked up by the storm, which keeps intensifying. As the pressure at the centre of the storm reduces, its speed picks up further. This process continues as long as the storm is over warm waters.

Since warm waters fuel the energy needed for hurricanes to strengthen, hotter seas result in more powerful hurricanes. The deeper the warm water extends under the ocean’s surface, the more energy is available for the hurricane to travel further and faster.

The entire Gulf of Mexico has been exceptionally warm this season, with some of the highest temperatures found where Milton rapidly intensified yesterday and near Florida’s western coast, where it is expected to make landfall.

Climate change has contributed to the rise of temperatures. In the last four decades, the ocean has absorbed about 90 percent of the heat from greenhouse gas emissions.

Right before landfall, #Milton's inner core will pass over some of the warmest water of its entire journey: 30-31°C (86-88°F), which is 2-3°C (3.5-5.5) warmer than average for this time of year.https://t.co/Id3wcCr25r pic.twitter.com/76vkyqP80F

— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) October 8, 2024

What is the latest on the ground?

Tampa police have referred to the hurricane as the “storm of the century”. Residents have begun evacuating the area, with President Biden stating that doing so is “a matter of life and death”.

The Division of Emergency Management is tracking which counties are under evacuation orders.

Governor Ron DeSantis announced that 5,000 National Guard members have been deployed, with an additional 3,000 ready to assist after the storm.

Hundreds of flights to and from Florida have been cancelled, according to FlightAware. In Orlando, for example, 781 flights scheduled for Wednesday were cancelled.

The storm comes as Milton targets communities still reeling two weeks after Hurricane Helene flooded streets and homes in western Florida, its devastating march leaving at least 230 people dead across southern states.