Hurricane Milton heads for Florida: Predicted path and what to expect

Florida is preparing for Hurricane Milton, carrying out its largest evacuation since 2017 after Milton strengthened from a tropical storm to a major hurricane.

The state in the southeastern United States is still reeling from the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene on September 26.

Here is what we know about Hurricane Milton, what parts of the US it could hit and its predicted impact:

What category is Hurricane Milton?

As of Monday, Hurricane Milton is a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest category on the Saffir-Simpson scale used to classify hurricanes.

As of 15:55 GMT on Monday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that the hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed is 250km/h (160mph).

10:55 CDT Monday Update: Milton rapidly intensifies into a category 5 hurricane. Data from a @53rdWRS hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 160 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Follow the latest at https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ pic.twitter.com/mOxuvGdtu5

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 7, 2024

It had rapidly gone from a Category 2 to Category 5 storm in just a few hours. At 09:00 GMT, the NHC reported its wind speed was 161km/h (100mph).

A major hurricane is a Category 3 hurricane or beyond because of “their potential for significant loss of life and damage”, the US National Weather Service (NWS) website says.

Milton rapidly developed from a tropical storm over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico into a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday.

The NWS employs the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale to classify storms. The scale divides hurricanes into five categories based on their sustained wind speeds. These categories are:

• Category 1: 119-153km/h (74-95mph). These storms are deemed very dangerous and are expected to cause some damage to power lines and poles.
• Category 2: 154-177km/h (96-110mph). Such wind speeds are expected to cause extensive damage.
• Category 3: 178-208km/h (111-129mph). Devastating damage is expected from this category. Trees can snap and break, and electricity and water supplies can be disrupted.
• Category 4: 209-251km/h (130-156mph). NWS warns of catastrophic damage for Categories 4 and 5.
• Category 5: 252km/h and higher (157mph and higher). Roofs and walls of houses are expected to be damaged or collapse. A lasting power outage is expected.

When Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida and caused damage in other southeastern states, it had maximum wind speeds of about 225km/h (140mph), which placed it in Category 4.

As of Saturday, the death toll from Helene is 227 across North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee and Virginia. Bodies are still being recovered.

Where and when is Milton expected to make landfall?

Milton is moving towards the west coast of Florida. Forecasters predicted that Milton will likely make landfall in Florida’s Tampa Bay area on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is also in effect for the northern coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

The NHC warned of storm surge and damaging winds in parts of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday night or early on Wednesday.

Here are the Monday 4 AM CDT Key Messages for Hurricane #Milton. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida. A Hurricane Warning is also now in effect for portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.… pic.twitter.com/w3txEbdZ1j

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 7, 2024

Where is Milton now?

Hurricane Milton is 1,175km (735 miles) west-southwest of Tampa, according to an NHC update from 15:55 GMT on Monday.

It is forecast to move through central Florida into the Atlantic Ocean, sparing other southeastern US states that were battered by Helene.

However, storm surges caused by Milton could possibly “exceed” those caused by Helene, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warned on Sunday. He added that Milton could also cause bigger power outages than Helene, which left more than two million residents without electricity.

How is Florida preparing for Milton?

DeSantis released a state of emergency bulletin, declaring an emergency in 51 of Florida’s 67 counties, including Broward, Lee and Miami-Dade. The 51 counties are home to 90 percent of the nearly 23 million residents of the state.

Pinellas County, which includes the city of St Petersburg, issued voluntary evacuation orders along barrier island beaches and for hospitals, nursing homes and mobile home parks. Schools in several counties have been closed from Monday to Thursday.

Florida authorities urged residents to comply with evacuation orders. This included the director of Florida’s emergency management division, Kevin Guthrie, who said during a news conference that this is the “largest evacuation that we have seen most likely since 2017 Hurricane Irma”.

In a video address on Sunday, DeSantis warned residents of southwest Florida to be prepared for the storm surge.

“Do not make inferences that somehow you’re going to be in the clear,” he said. “The entire peninsula, the entire west coast [of Florida], has the potential to have major, major impact because of the storm surge.”

Governor DeSantis Provides Update #2 on Hurricane Milton at State Emergency Operations Center https://t.co/T7T20ifnfs

— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) October 6, 2024

Numerous events have also been cancelled. They include the public championship ring ceremony of the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, which was scheduled for Monday night at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida.

Additionally, debris still being cleared after Helene could exacerbate the potential damage caused by Milton, DeSantis warned. He said Florida is ramping up efforts to remove debris.

The Florida National Guard, Florida State Guard, FDOT, and FHP are all hands on deck to supplement local debris removal in preparation for Hurricane Milton.

Additionally, the Division of Emergency Management is coordinating with local emergency management directors to inform… pic.twitter.com/Ilt5t2lost

— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) October 6, 2024

Is climate change making hurricanes worse?

Aside from Milton, Category 1 Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie are also churning in the Atlantic.

This is the first time the Atlantic is experiencing three hurricanes at once, at least since satellite imaging of hurricanes became common in 1966, said Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University specialising in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.

For the first time on record, the Atlantic has 3 #hurricanes simultaneously after September (#Kirk, #Leslie, #Milton). pic.twitter.com/vv7gEdKbY3

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 6, 2024

With a warming climate, storm surges, rainfall and winds associated with hurricanes are becoming more destructive, according to the US-based nonprofit advocacy group Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).

It attributes this to rising sea levels and warmer oceans, which cause intense evaporation and the transfer of heat from oceans to the air. According to the EDF, the proportion of major hurricanes in the Atlantic has doubled since 1980.