How far will US strikes set back Iran’s nuclear programme?

The United States struck 3 cardinal atomic sites successful Iran aboriginal connected Sunday, injecting itself into Israel’s warfare with Iran successful a blase ngo and prompting fears of subject escalation successful the Middle East amid Israel’s brutal onslaught of Gaza.

In a televised address aboriginal connected Sunday, US President Donald Trump justified the strikes, saying they were aimed astatine stopping “the atomic threat” posed by Iran. Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow sites, which are progressive successful the accumulation oregon retention of enriched uranium, were targeted.

“Tonight, I tin study to the satellite that the strikes were a spectacular subject success. Iran’s cardinal atomic enrichment facilities person been wholly and wholly obliterated,” helium said, informing Tehran against retaliation.

Israel and Trump assertion that Iran tin usage the enriched uranium to marque atomic warheads. But Iran insists its atomic programme is solely for civilian purposes. The United Nations atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has besides rejected Israeli claims that Iran was connected the verge of making atomic weapons.

Condemning the strikes, which US officials said were highly coordinated, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the clip for diplomacy had passed and that his state had the close to support itself.

“The warmongering, a lawless medication successful Washington, is solely and afloat liable for the unsafe consequences and far-reaching implications of its enactment of aggression,” helium said astatine a quality league successful Istanbul, Turkiye.

Iranian officials, meanwhile, person not elaborate the grade of the harm and person attempted to downplay the value of the hits. Speaking connected authorities TV, Hassan Abedini, the lawman governmental manager of Iran’s authorities broadcaster, said the 3 atomic sites had been evacuated “a portion ago” and that they “didn’t endure a large stroke due to the fact that the materials had already been taken out”.

Here’s what to cognize astir the atomic plants deed and what the attacks mean for Iran:

Which facilities were hit?

Trump connected Sunday said a afloat payload of bombs “obliterated” Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan atomic sites. Iranian officials, according to the Reuters quality agency, besides confirmed that the 3 facilities were hit.

1. Fordow is an underground enrichment installation successful cognition since 2006. Built heavy wrong the mountains immoderate 48km (30 miles) from the Iranian metropolis of Qom, northbound of Tehran, the tract enjoys earthy cover. The superior absorption of Sunday’s strikes, Fordow was deed with 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOPs) oregon “bunker-buster” bombs delivered from B-2 stealth bomber planes, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said successful a briefing connected Sunday. The 13,000kg (28,700lb) GBU-57 MOP is the astir almighty bunker-buster bomb, capable to penetrate 60m (200 feet) beneath crushed and delivering up to 2,400kg (5,300lb) of explosives, portion the bombers are hard to detect. Israel had earlier attacked Fordow connected June 13, causing aboveground damage, but information analysts judge lone US bunker busters tin penetrate the facility. An autarkic appraisal of the standard of the harm is not yet available.
2. Natanz is considered the largest atomic enrichment installation successful Iran, located astir 300km (186 miles) southbound of Tehran. It is believed to dwell of 2 facilities. One is the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), which is simply a trial and probe installation located supra crushed and utilized to assemble centrifuges, rapidly rotating machines utilized for uranium enrichment. According to the non-profit Nuclear Threat Initiative, the installation had adjacent to a 1000 centrifuges. The different facility, located heavy beneath the ground, is the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP). US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dan Caine said connected Sunday that “more than 2 dozen” Tomahawk missiles were fired astatine Natanz and Isfahan. US media earlier reported the missiles were launched by submarines.
3. Isfahan is an atomic probe installation located successful the cardinal metropolis of Isfahan. It was built successful the 1970s and was utilized for uranium conversion. It was the past determination deed earlier the US bombing mission, which progressive astir 125 aircraft, withdrew from the Iranian airspace, according to officials. Hegseth said the Iranians did not observe the ngo and were notified afterwards.

Are the sites destroyed?

Independent interaction appraisal of the US strikes astatine Fordow remains unclear.

Hegseth connected Sunday said the US’s “initial appraisal is that each our precision munitions struck wherever we wanted them to onslaught and achieved the desired effect”, citing peculiar harm astatine Fordow.

An Iranian lawmaker told Al Jazeera that the tract suffered superficial damage. Israeli strikes connected the works past week lone caused “limited, if any, damage” astatine the underground plant, according to IAEA brag Rafael Grossi.

The grade of harm astatine Natanz is besides unclear pursuing Sunday’s strike. Earlier Israeli attacks “completely destroyed” the above-ground plant, and caused centrifuges successful the underground parts of the uranium works to beryllium “severely damaged if not destroyed altogether”, adjacent though it was not straight hit, Grossi told reporters past week.

Meanwhile, the IAEA said connected Sunday that six buildings astatine Isfahan suffered harm pursuing the US attacks, including a store handling contaminated equipment. Earlier Israeli strikes had damaged 4 buildings connected the site, the bureau had reported, including the plant’s cardinal chemic laboratory.

Initial reports from Iran and neighbouring Gulf countries specified as Kuwait further bespeak that determination is nary important leakage of radioactive worldly from immoderate of the plants. That could suggest that Iranian officials mightiness person moved the stockpiles of enriched uranium retired of the facilities targeted by the US, analysts say.

According to the IRNA quality agency, Reza Kardan, the lawman manager of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and the caput of the National Nuclear Safety System Center successful the country, confirmed connected Sunday that “no radiation contamination oregon atomic radiation has been observed outside” the sites.

“Preliminary plans had been made and measures had been taken to support the information and wellness of the beloved radical of the country, and contempt the transgression actions this greeting successful attacking atomic facilities, owed to the antecedently planned measures and the measures taken, nary radiation contamination oregon atomic radiation has been observed extracurricular these sites and facilities,” Kardan said.

The IAEA besides said the radiation levels adjacent targeted sites had not increased.

“Following attacks connected 3 atomic sites successful Iran – including Fordow – the IAEA tin corroborate that nary summation successful off-site radiation levels has been reported arsenic of this time,” the bureau said successful a societal media station connected Sunday.

Trita Parsi, enforcement vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, says it is apt Iran had taken precautionary actions up of the US attacks.

“It appears that they already had gotten an precocious warning,” helium told Al Jazeera.

“They understood that helium [Trump] was buying clip portion moving subject assets successful bid to really strike. So, I deliberation for immoderate clip they person moved those assets – wherever they are is unclear astatine this point.”

Will this derail Iran’s atomic efforts?

The interaction of the strikes connected Iran’s wide atomic programme is yet unknown.

However, analysts accidental determination was nary wide grounds that Iran had precocious truthful acold arsenic to beryllium capable to scope weaponisation successful its atomic programme successful the archetypal place.

Parsi said Iran’s astir invaluable atomic plus is its stockpile of enriched uranium.

“As agelong arsenic they proceed to person that, they inactive really person precise overmuch a atomic programme that inactive could beryllium weaponised,” helium added.

“And I deliberation we are going to commencement to perceive from the Israelis successful alternatively abbreviated order, that this was not the benignant of palmy onslaught Trump has claimed, but they are going to commencement making the lawsuit that determination needs to beryllium a much ongoing bombing run against Iran.”

Has Iran’s atomic programme suffered setbacks before?

• Yes. Iran’s atomic ambitions started backmost successful the 1950s nether the enactment of the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a adjacent state of the US and Israel. The shah’s archetypal imaginativeness was to physique Iran’s atomic capacities for some vigor procreation and, to a lesser extent, weapons manufacturing. The US, Germany, and France each supported the state with assistance and technology. However, pursuing the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the caller government, nether person Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, halted oregon paused parts of the programme, arguing that it was costly and that it represented Iran’s continued reliance connected Western technology.
• Shelved oregon cancelled programmes further took a deed during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) erstwhile the state was forced to divert resources to the warfare effort aft Iraq’s invasion. Its Bushehr atomic reactor site, which was nether operation arsenic portion of a concern with the concern manufacturing elephantine Siemens, was bombed severely by Iraq and was near successful near-total damage. Siemens yet withdrew from the project. The authorities would aboriginal connected reportedly restart the atomic programme, though Iranian enactment has ever insisted it is pursuing atomic powerfulness for civilian use.
• Stuxnet – a machine microorganism developed by Israel and the US, apt launched backmost successful 2005 but discovered successful 2010 – caused extended harm to Iran’s atomic capabilities. The programme, nicknamed Operation Olympic Games, compromised the Iranian web and caused centrifuges to teardrop themselves apart. It reportedly expanded rapidly nether erstwhile US President Barack Obama, but began during the medication of US President George W Bush.
• Under the 2015 Iran atomic woody (officially known arsenic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action oregon JCPOA), the state was forced to bounds its enrichment capabilities successful speech for sanctions relief. The deal, signed betwixt Iran, China, Russia, the US, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union, capped enrichment astatine 3.67 percent. Sanctions, immoderate of them successful spot since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, were gradually removed. Tehran complied with the presumption of the deal, according to the (IAEA). It besides agreed to let the IAEA regular monitoring access. However, Trump pulled retired of the statement during his archetypal word arsenic US president successful 2018, and slapped connected sanctions arsenic portion of a “maximum pressure” campaign, forcing Tehran to besides discard the presumption though it continued to cooperate with the IAEA.