Germany’s far-right party likely to make gains in eastern region elections

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Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on course for 33.5% followed by the conservatives on 24.5% in Thuringia.

Published On 1 Sep 2024

Germany’s far-right AfD is on track to coming first in the state election of Thuringia, an exit poll by broadcaster ZDF said, although it will unlikely be able to form a government.

The Alternative for Germany is on course for 33.5% of the vote compared to 23.4% in 2019, followed by the conservatives on 24.5%, up from 21.7%. Upstart populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, came in third place on 14.5%.

The Social Democrat, Green and Free Democrat parties of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition got 6.5%, 4% and 1% respectively down from 8.2%, 5.2% and 5% in 2019.

On Sunday the two east German states of Thuringia and Saxony, cast their ballots in an election just over a week after three people were killed in a knife attack that has fuelled a bitter debate over immigration in Germany.

Reporting from Berlin, Al Jazeera’s Dominic Kane said after polls close “the party that wins has the moral authority to say that ‘we represent East Germany’ or at least a large chunk of eastern Germany”.

He noted that some of the people voting in these two states had lived under communism 35 years ago.

While the final results have not yet been declared, a win for the AfD would mark the first time a far-right party has the most seats in a German state parliament since World War II. The 11-year-old party would not likely be able to form a state government even if it does win, as it is polling short of a majority and other parties refuse to collaborate with it.

Opinion polls had also showed the anti-immigration AfD ahead in Thuringia and a close second in Saxony, while also predicting a strong showing for the upstart far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

‘Political turnaround through Germany’

Saxony is the most populous of the former East German states and has been a conservative stronghold since reunification. Thuringia is more rural and the only state currently led by the far-left Die Linke, a successor of East Germany’s ruling communist party.

Casting her vote early in Erfurt, the capital of Thuringia, Sandra Pagel told AFP news agency she was “really afraid” of a victory of the AfD.

“I’m very nervous to see what happens today … because I think there’s a very high risk that the AfD will win and that scares me. For my grandchildren and also for me,” said the 46-year-old sterilisation processing facility manager.

“I just hope that we get a coalition that is democratic and not right-wing at the end,” Naila Kiesel told Reuters after casting her ballot in the city of Jena in Thuringia.

Created in 2013 as an anti-euro group before morphing into an anti-immigration party, the AfD has capitalised on the fractious three-way coalition in Berlin to rise in opinion polls.

In June’s European Parliament elections, the party scored a record 15.9 percent overall and did especially well in eastern Germany, where it emerged as the biggest force.

In a post on social media platform X on Sunday, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel urged voters to choose the AfD to “not only change the future in Saxony and Thuringia, but also bring about a political turnaround throughout Germany”.

Alongside the AfD, new party BSW has also found a receptive audience in the eastern states for its criticism of the government in Berlin and of military aid to Ukraine.

Founded in January by the firebrand politician Sahra Wagenknecht after she quit Die Linke, BSW has made hay with a dovish stance towards Russia and calls for a radical crackdown on immigration.

The AfD and BSW together are expected to take some 40-50 percent of the vote in the two states compared with 23-27.5 percent at the national level, laying bare the continuing divide between East and West Germany, more than 30 years after reunification.