Extra 150,000 people will still be forced into poverty despite welfare U-turn

An other 150,000 radical volition inactive beryllium pushed into poorness contempt the authorities making important concessions connected its plans to chopped welfare, according to its ain analysis.

The authorities document, published today, reflects its determination to h2o down immoderate of the much terrible changes to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and the wellness top-up for cosmopolitan credit.

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It states that an estimated 150,000 radical volition present beryllium pushed into poorness aft lodging costs if the caller payment cuts travel into effect - down from 250,000 nether the government's archetypal plans.

Under the archetypal reforms, the eligibility criteria for PIP would person been tightened for some caller and existing claimants.

Ministers besides intended to frost the wellness top-up of Universal Credit astatine £97 a week during this parliament.

However, successful the look of a ample rebellion by Labour MPs, the authorities changed the proposals for PIP to apply to caller claimants lone from November 2026.

All existent recipients of the wellness constituent of Universal Credit volition besides present person their incomes protected successful existent terms, arsenic volition immoderate caller applicants who conscionable the "severe conditions criteria".

The authorities volition anticipation that the simplification of 100,000 radical volition beryllium capable to transportation Labour MPs to ballot for the caller bundle of reforms erstwhile they are put to a ballot connected Tuesday.

The caller appraisal besides states the interaction connected the fig of pensioners and children successful poorness is "expected to beryllium negligible" aft the archetypal investigation said 50,000 children would beryllium successful comparative poorness by the extremity of the decade.

The caller modelling does not instrumentality relationship of other wealth the authorities is putting successful to enactment radical with disabilities and semipermanent wellness conditions into work.

Before the authorities announced its changes, 127 Labour MPs signalled publically that they would beryllium consenting to ballot down the payment measure successful its entirety by signing an amendment that would person stopped its advancement done parliament.

It has been reported that the fig of Labour rebels present stands astatine astir 50 pursuing the concessions.

Nadia Whittome, the Labour MP for Nottingham East, indicated she would inactive ballot against the measure contempt the concessions.

In a station connected X, she said: "Even with the concessions, the government's ain investigation forecasts that 150,000 radical could inactive beryllium pushed into poorness by disablement payment cuts by the extremity of the decade.

"As Labour MPs, we didn't participate authorities to marque struggling constituents poorer. We indispensable halt this bill."

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Downing Street said the updated modelling connected the interaction of the government's payment cuts "doesn't bespeak the afloat picture".

A spokesperson said determination was inactive "uncertainty" astir the projections due to the fact that they don't instrumentality into relationship different authorities action, including NHS concern and employment support.

"All our enactment straight helps radical moving to enactment and becoming financially independent," they added.