Early voting in full swing in US election, Harris and Trump tied in polls

Early voting is kicking off in both Florida and Wisconsin in the United States as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic counterpart Kamala Harris remain nearly deadlocked, particularly in a handful of closely fought “swing states” which could decide the presidential election, newly released polling data shows.

Ahead of the tightly contested presidential election on November 5, Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck across the country’s seven battleground states that can swing in favour of either candidate, according to the latest survey of voters published on Monday by The Washington Post.

About 47 percent of registered voters said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot for Harris, the poll found. Forty-seven percent said the same about Trump.

As for “likely voters”, 49 percent said they’d back Harris, with 48 percent supporting Trump.

A total of 47 states, including the District of Columbia, are preparing to get early voting underway. In-person absentee voting opened in Florida on Monday and will begin in Wisconsin on Tuesday. Early voting typically opens up to two weeks prior to election day and lasts until November 3.

The state of Georgia reported record turnout on its first day of early voting last week.

Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire remain the only states that do not offer early voting; they also require an eligible reason to vote by mail.

Latest poll

The Washington Post survey, conducted in the first weeks of October, polled more than 5,000 registered voters, a sizeable sample, and examined a large group of unregistered voters who haven’t committed to a single candidate.

The poll comes just as Trump’s average has nudged slightly ahead of Harris in the aggregate of surveys calculated by the website FiveThirtyEight, though the margin is so small it remains a statistical tie.

The poll results coincide with the two candidates hitting the campaign trail in full force this weekend – in wildly different ways. On Sunday, Trump was dishing out french fries at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s, while Harris celebrated her 60th birthday at a church in Georgia.

US Vice President Kamala Harris looks on as Stevie Wonder sings ‘Happy Birthday’ to her during a Souls to the Polls Sunday service in Jonesboro, Georgia. October 20, 2024. [Elijah Nouvelage/Reuters] (Reuters)

Harris is holding moderated conversations with former Republican Liz Cheney in three battleground states on Monday. Her teaming up with Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, has drawn criticism from some Arab Americans due to the latter’s support for the Iraq war.

Trump has also seized upon the partnership, calling the former congresswoman from the state of Wyoming a “War Hawk.”

Arizona and Georgia

Trump’s support hasn’t budged much in the pivotal states since an earlier poll by Post-Schar. Harris is up six percentage points on her predecessor, President Joe Biden, who had tallied 41 percent of voter support prior to dropping out of the race in July.

Trump is riding high in Arizona, maintaining a six-point lead over Harris among registered voters. He is also up in North Carolina with a four-point advantage on the vice president among registered voters.

His leads in those states slightly decrease among likely voters. The latest Post-Schar findings differ from a recent Quinnipiac Poll, which found Harris might have a minor lead in North Carolina.

Harris is polling strongest in Georgia where she’s up six points on Trump among registered voters and four points with likely voters. She has a slight lead on Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Harris has three points on Trump with registered voters in Nevada, but the political rivals are in a dead heat among likely voters.

Fundraising

One area where Harris has Trump beat is fundraising. As election day looms, Harris raised a whopping $633m in the third fundraising quarter, bringing her total to over $1bn, according to The Associated Press.

Her campaign brought in $359m last month alone and $222m in September, but her team has also unloaded $270m in October as part of a last-minute advertising campaign.

The vice president’s campaign entered the month with $346m cash on hand. Trump, meanwhile, had only $283m at the start of the month and raised just $160m in September.

Trump earned a different kind of win early on Monday when the Supreme Court announced it had rejected hearing an appeal from his onetime fixer, Michael Cohen, Reuters reported.

Cohen had sued Trump for retaliating against him while promoting a politically explosive book from Trump’s time in the White House. The justices declined to hear the case without comment.

A US District Court had previously dismissed Cohen’s lawsuit for damages, which the 2nd US Circuit Court of Appeals upheld in January.

Cohen previously pleaded guilty to nine criminal counts related to campaign finance violations during the 2016 election year.

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Al Jazeera and news agencies