Did Trump approve Israel’s attack on Iran, and is the US preparing for war?

As the struggle betwixt Iran and Israel escalates, United States President Donald Trump’s medication is offering mixed signals astir whether it inactive backs a diplomatic solution to Iran’s atomic programme.

Publicly, it has backed a negotiated agreement, and US and Iranian negotiators had planned to conscionable again this week. As precocious arsenic Thursday, Trump insisted successful a Truth Social post: “We stay committed to a Diplomatic Resolution.”

But 14 hours aboriginal arsenic Israel began its attacks connected Iran, Trump posted that helium had fixed Iran a 60-day deadline to scope an statement – and that the deadline had passed. By Sunday, Trump was insisting that “Israel and Iran should marque a deal” and they would with his help.

On Monday arsenic Trump prepared to permission the Group of Seven acme successful Canada early, his warnings grew much ominous: He posted that Iran cannot person a atomic limb and “Everyone should instantly evacuate Tehran!” The US president aboriginal denied speculation that helium had returned to Washington, DC, aboriginal to negociate a ceasefire, noting that it was for thing “much bigger than that”.

Trump’s ambiguous statements person fuelled statement among analysts astir the existent grade of US engagement and intentions successful the Israel-Iran conflict.

Debating Trump’s wink and a nod

Trump has denied immoderate US engagement successful the strikes. “The U.S. had thing to bash with the onslaught connected Iran, tonight,” he wrote connected Sunday.

Kelsey Davenport, manager for nonproliferation argumentation astatine the US-based Arms Control Association, said Trump’s messaging had been clear. “I deliberation that President Trump has been precise wide successful his absorption to the usage of subject unit against Iran portion diplomacy was playing out. And reporting suggests that helium pushed backmost against [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu,” she said.

What’s much likely, Davenport said, is that “Israel was disquieted that diplomacy would succeed, that it would mean a deal” and “that it did not presumption [this as] matching its interests and objectives regarding Iran”.

Richard Nephew, a prof astatine Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, agreed, saying it was Trump’s accordant march towards a woody that troubled Israel.

“I deliberation it is that consistency that’s really been the happening that’s the problem,” said Nephew, who served arsenic manager for Iran astatine the US National Security Council from 2011 to 2013 nether then-President Barack Obama.

But Ali Ansari, a prof of Iranian past astatine St Andrews University successful Scotland, disagreed.

“The US was aware. … Even if the circumstantial timing did astonishment them, they indispensable person been aware, truthful a wink is astir right,” helium told Al Jazeera.

“At the aforesaid time, the US presumption is that Israel indispensable instrumentality the pb and should truly bash this connected their own,” helium said.

Could Trump get sucked into the conflict?

Israel is believed to person destroyed the above-ground conception of Iran’s uranium enrichment installation astatine Natanz. The installation has enriched uranium to 60 percent purity – acold supra the 3.67 percent needed for atomic powerfulness but beneath the 90 percent purity needed for an atomic bomb. Power nonaccomplishment astatine Natanz arsenic a effect of the Israeli onslaught whitethorn person besides damaged the underground enrichment conception astatine Natanz, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

But successful the IAEA’s assessment, Israel did not harm Iran’s different uranium enrichment works astatine Fordow, which is buried wrong a upland and besides enriches uranium to 60 percent purity.

“It’s apt that Israel would request US enactment if it really wanted to penetrate immoderate of these underground facilities,” Davenport said, pointing to the largest US accepted bomb, the 13,600kg (30,000lb) Massive Ordnance Penetrator.

“[With] repeated strikes with that munition, you could apt harm oregon destruct immoderate of these facilities,” Davenport said, noting that Washington “has not transferred that weaponry to Israel”.

Barbara Slavin, a distinguished chap astatine the Stimson Center, a US-based deliberation tank, also told Al Jazeera that Israel would request US weapons to implicit its stated ngo of destroying Iran’s atomic programme.

Nephew, for one, did not discount the chances of that happening.

“We cognize that [Trump] likes to beryllium connected the broadside of winners. To the grade that helium perceives the Israelis arsenic winners close now, that is the crushed wherefore helium is maintaining his presumption and wherefore I deliberation we person a wink [to Israel],” helium said.

On Friday, the US flew a ample fig of midair-refuelling planes to the Middle East and ordered the craft bearer USS Nimitz to sail there. On Tuesday, it announced it was sending much warplanes to the region.

Ansari agreed that the archetypal occurrence of Israel’s attacks could mean that “Trump is tempted to articulation successful conscionable to get immoderate of the glory,” but helium thinks this could unit Iran to basal down.

“It whitethorn good beryllium that the US does articulation successful connected an onslaught connected Fordow though I deliberation adjacent the genuine menace of an American onslaught volition bring the Iranians to the table,” Ansari said. “They tin concede – with honour – to the United States; they can’t to Israel, though they whitethorn person nary choice.”

Wary of American involvement, US Senator Tim Kaine introduced a warfare powers solution connected Monday that would necessitate the US Congress to authorise immoderate subject enactment against Iran.

“It is not successful our nationalist information involvement to get into a warfare with Iran unless that warfare is perfectly indispensable to support the United States,” Kaine said.

Diplomacy vs force

Obama did not judge a subject solution was charismatic oregon feasible for Iran’s atomic programme, and helium opted for a diplomatic process that resulted successful the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) successful 2015. That statement called for the IAEA to show each of Iran’s atomic activities to guarantee that uranium enrichment lone reached the levels required for vigor production.

According to Nephew and Davenport, Trump indirectly fanned the flames of the subject enactment erstwhile helium pulled the US retired of the JCPOA arsenic president successful 2018 astatine Israel’s behest.

Two years later, Iran said it would enrich uranium to 4.5 percent purity, and successful 2021, it refined it to 20 percent purity. In 2023, the IAEA said it had recovered uranium particles astatine Fordow enriched to 83.7 percent purity.

Trump offered nary alternate to the JCPOA during his archetypal statesmanlike term, nor did President Joe Biden aft him.

“Setting [the JCPOA] connected occurrence was a nonstop publication to wherever we are today,” Nephew said. Seeking a subject way alternatively of a diplomatic 1 to curtail a atomic programme “contributes to a proliferation path”, helium said, “because countries say, ‘The lone mode I tin support myself is if I spell down this path.’”

Davenport, an adept connected the atomic and rocket programmes of Iran and North Korea, said adjacent the authorities alteration successful Tehran that Netanyahu has called for wouldn’t lick the problem.

“Regime alteration is not an assured nonproliferation strategy,” she said. “We don’t cognize what would travel adjacent successful Iran if this authorities were to fall. If it were the subject seizing control, atomic weapons mightiness beryllium much likely. But adjacent if it were a much unfastened antiauthoritarian government, democracies take to physique atomic weapons too.”