Could Trump’s tariff threats force Putin into Ukraine peace deal?

United States President Donald Trump threatened to enforce “very terrible tariffs” connected Russia connected Monday if a bid statement to extremity the Ukraine warfare is not reached successful the adjacent 50 days.

Trump has besides unveiled a caller statement to supply Ukraine with much weapons.

On the run way up of past year’s statesmanlike election, Trump boasted that helium would extremity the warfare successful Ukraine wrong his archetypal 24 hours successful office.

However, aft astatine slightest six telephone conversations betwixt Trump and his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, arsenic good arsenic respective meetings betwixt US officials and officials from Russia and Ukraine, nary ceasefire woody has been reached.

In May, Putin refused to question to Istanbul to conscionable with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for bid talks. The 2 countries sent delegations instead, resulting successful prisoner speech agreements, only.

So, volition Trump’s latest menace person Russian President Vladimir Putin to alteration his stance connected Ukraine?

What did Trump accidental astir Russia and Ukraine this week?

Weapons for Ukraine

At a gathering with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte successful the Oval Office connected Monday, Trump said helium was “disappointed” successful Putin and that Ukraine would person billions of dollars’ worthy of US weapons.

“We’re going to marque top-of-the-line weapons, and they’ll beryllium sent to NATO,” Trump said, adding that NATO would wage for them. He added that this would see the Patriot aerial defence missiles that Ukraine has sought urgently.

“We person 1 state that has 17 Patriots getting acceptable to beryllium shipped … We’re going to enactment a woody wherever the 17 volition go, oregon a large information of the 17 volition spell to the warfare site,” Trump said.

New tariffs for Russian goods

Trump said if Putin fails to motion a bid woody with Ukraine wrong 50 days of Monday this week, helium volition enforce “very severe” commercialized tariffs connected Russia, arsenic good arsenic secondary tariffs connected different countries.

“We’re going to beryllium doing secondary tariffs,” Trump said. “If we don’t person a woody successful 50 days, it’s precise simple, and they’ll beryllium astatine 100 percent.”

Since the commencement of the Ukraine war, the US and its allies person imposed astatine slightest 21,692 abstracted sanctions connected Russian individuals, media organisations and institutions, targeting sectors including the military, energy, aviation, shipbuilding and telecommunications.

While the commercialized narration betwixt US and Russia mightiness beryllium comparatively marginal, “secondary tariffs” – archetypal threatened by Trump successful March but not implemented – would impact countries specified arsenic India and China purchasing Russian oil.

In 2024, Russian lipid made up 35 percent of India’s full crude imports and 19 percent of China’s lipid imports. Turkiye besides relies heavy connected Russian oil, sourcing up to 58 percent of its refined petroleum imports from Russia successful 2023.

Some Western countries could besides beryllium deed by secondary tariffs. In 2024, European countries spent much than $700m connected Russian uranium products, according to an investigation by the Brussels-based deliberation vessel Bruegel, which utilized information from the European Union’s statistical office, Eurostat.

How has Russia responded to Trump’s latest threats?

Putin has not responded personally.

However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters connected Tuesday: “The US president’s statements are precise serious. Some of them are addressed personally to President Putin. We surely request clip to analyse what was said successful Washington.”

Peskov stated, however, that decisions made successful Washington and different NATO countries were “perceived by the Ukrainian broadside not arsenic a awesome for peace, but arsenic a awesome to proceed the war”.

Dmitry Medvedev, erstwhile Russian president and existent lawman seat of Russia’s Security Council, wrote successful an X station connected Tuesday that Russia did not attraction astir Trump’s “theatrical ultimatum”.

Trump issued a theatrical ultimatum to the Kremlin.
The satellite shuddered, expecting the consequences.
Belligerent Europe was disappointed.
Russia didn’t care.

— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) July 15, 2025

Sergei Ryabkov, a elder Russian diplomat, said connected Tuesday: “We archetypal and foremost enactment that immoderate attempts to marque demands – particularly ultimatums – are unacceptable for us,” Russia’s TASS quality bureau reported.

The Russian banal marketplace appeared untroubled by Trump’s threat, rising 2.7 percent connected Monday, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange.

The Russian rouble initially mislaid worth against the US dollar but past recovered aft Trump threatened caller tariffs connected Russia. According to information from fiscal investigation radical LSEG, the rouble was conscionable 0.2 percent weaker astatine the extremity of the day, trading astatine 78.10 to the US dollar aft weakening to 78.75 earlier successful the day.

The rouble gained 0.9 percent to 10.87 against the Chinese yuan, the astir traded overseas currency successful Russia. This was aft it had weakened by much than 1 percent connected Friday.

Will US weapons assistance Ukraine significantly?

Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher astatine the defence studies section astatine King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that the Patriot rocket systems that Trump has pledged to merchantability to Ukraine are long-range aerial defences champion suited for shooting down ballistic missiles specified arsenic Russia’s Iskander M.

“But Ukraine volition request short- to medium-range systems arsenic good arsenic aggregate rocket launchers successful bid to support itself. So it’s much of a governmental determination for Trump alternatively than thing else,” Miron said.

She added that the value of these weapons depends connected respective factors, including whether Ukraine volition get 17 systems arsenic allegedly promised, and wherever the systems would beryllium placed.

How has Trump changed his stance connected aiding Ukraine?

A period into his statesmanlike term, Trump posted connected his Truth Social platform, blaming Zelenskyy for continuing the warfare with Russia and saying the Ukrainian president “talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to spell into a War that couldn’t beryllium won, that ne'er had to start”.

The US has sent Ukraine astir $134bn successful assistance truthful acold – not $350bn – according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) basal has besides been captious of US backing for Ukraine.

In aboriginal July, the Trump medication announced a determination to “pause” arms deliveries to Kyiv, but reversed this a week later. When Trump announced the reversal connected July 8, his supporters voiced criticism.

Derrick Evans, 1 of Trump’s supporters who was among the throng which stormed the US Capitol connected January 6, 2021, and who was aboriginal arrested but past pardoned by Trump successful January this year, wrote connected X: “I did not ballot for this.” Conservative societal media duo Keith and Kevin Hodge posted connected X: “Who successful the hellhole is telling Trump that we request to nonstop much weapons to Ukraine?”

Trump appears to beryllium attempting to code these criticisms by saying that alternatively of supplying weapons to Ukraine, helium volition merchantability them to NATO.

Furthermore, Miron said, the US is not losing thing by selling weapons, since NATO volition beryllium paying for them. “There are not capable systems being provided to marque a important difference,” she said.

Could Trump’s latest threats unit Putin to alteration his policy?

While Putin has repeatedly voiced his determination to execute his warfare aims, helium has not specifically stated what they are. Broadly, helium has sought territorial gains wrong Ukraine and has opposed Ukraine’s rank successful NATO – these person not changed and are improbable to bash so, according to observers.

“If you were to picture Russia’s approach, it’s ‘keep calm and transportation on,'” Miron said, referring to the information that astir Russian officials person not responded to Trump’s threat.

“So they are not going for this informational trap,” she said.

Has Putin changed his stance astatine each since Russia invaded Ukraine?

Miron said Putin has expanded his goals since Ukraine’s large cross-border incursion to the Kursk portion successful August past year. Ukraine’s propulsion into Kursk, which took the Kremlin by surprise, marked the astir important Ukrainian onslaught wrong Russian territory since the warfare began.

In May this year, Russian troops were tasked with establishing a buffer portion stretching up to 10km (6 miles) into Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Ukraine’s subject quality main Kyrylo Budanov, successful an interrogation with Bloomberg published connected July 11.

“I person already said that a determination was made to make the indispensable information buffer portion on the border. Our equipped forces are presently solving this problem. Enemy firing points are being actively suppressed, the enactment is nether way,” Putin said backmost then.

While Putin did not supply overmuch item astir what the buffer zones would entail, Russian General Viktor Sobolev said they would let Russia to propulsion Ukraine’s long-range missiles retired of striking range, Ukrainian media reported.