Could the Houthis be next? Yemenis reflect on the fall of Syria’s al-Assad

Sanaa, Yemen – Mansour Saleh, a 25-year-old history graduate in Sanaa, has been glued to the political and military developments in Syria.

“Stunning”, “mysterious” and “unexpected”, are among some of the words he used to describe what happened in the country this month.

The fall of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad earlier in December has set millions of Yemenis thinking about what lies in store for their own country.

Some say the fall of the Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen – who control Sanaa and much of northern and western Yemen – may be the “next surprise” in the region.

“My friends have different views. Some called me, happy about the eclipse of the Syrian regime, and others were sad over such a scenario. We’re a highly divided society,” said Saleh.

Crying over the fall of Damascus

Al-Assad’s defeat feels personal to Houthi supporters who see themselves as part of a broader, Iran-led, “axis of resistance” to Israel and the United States.

Under al-Assad, Syria was considered a key part of the axis and a route for the transfer of weapons between Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.

Abdulrahman Ali, a 40-year-old in Sanaa, says the demise of the former Syrian regime is a “massive loss”.

“When I watched the news on the fall of Damascus to Turkey-backed Syrian militant groups, I cried. Personally, I don’t care about Bashar. What matters is the continued strength of the axis of resistance,” Ali told Al Jazeera.

The Houthis, who held an armed takeover of Sanaa in September 2014 and then, in 2015, forced out the internationally-recognised government, are part of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’, which includes the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. The former Syrian government was also considered part of the axis.

The Houthi takeover prompted a war as the ousted government and regional allies – led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – tried to wrest back control of Yemen.

In April 2022, a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire halted the fighting, but control remains divided among various groups, including the Houthis, and the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council in the south and east.

Today, pro-Houthi Yemenis like Ali say the war may well start up again in Yemen.

“The current scenario in Syria may entice anti-Ansar Allah groups to launch a war,” he said, using the official name for the Houthis. “This will throw us into a new cycle of violence.”

The Houthi leadership is not scared of a renewal of fighting, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a senior member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council in Sanaa, said in a televised interview on December 12.

He added that the Houthis were ready should the “aggression” on Yemen resume, using a term the Houthis employ for attacks by the forces pitted against them.

“The Yemeni people do not care about threats,” al-Houthi added. “Any foolishness committed by the Israeli enemy against Yemen will trigger the [military] operations of the Yemeni armed forces.”

‘Ending the Iranian presence’

On the other side of the Yemeni divide are millions opposed to the Houthis who see al-Assad’s fall as a victory for freedom and a defeat for tyranny.

“Finally, the Syrian people have justice,” said Faisal Mohammed, a 39-year-old teacher in Taiz, a city largely held by anti-Houthi forces that suffered for years as a result of a siege imposed by the rebel group. “Assad’s fall gives us hope that the Arab world can rise above oppression.”

Faisal Mohammed sees events in Syria as a message to the Houthis.

“The Assads’ dynastic rule has crumbled after 54 years… no matter how long the Houthis continue, they will meet the same destiny.”

With Iranian support over the past decade, including weapons and experts, the Houthis have fought numerous battles against pro-government forces in Yemen and tightened their grip in large swaths of Yemen.

The group has appeared secure, militarily and politically, and Saudi Arabia has for years been looking for a way out of its involvement in Yemen, appearing close to a deal with the Houthis at times. The anti-Houthi camp, on the other hand, has often appeared weak and divided, with many anti-Houthi Yemenis disappointed with the failures of their representatives.

In fact, it had appeared that the Yemeni government would have to acquiesce to some form of deal with the Houthis or be frozen out by Saudi Arabia.

However, events in the wider region, including the general weakness of Iran and its allies as a result of their conflict with Israel, have given many in the anti-Houthi camp hope that things have changed.

“Hezbollah has suffered huge losses at the hands of Israel, and Assad’s regime is eliminated. Iran could do nothing,” Faisal Mohammed said. “Therefore, the Houthis will likely meet a similar destiny, and this means the Iranian presence in Yemen will be uprooted.”

Mohammed Abdu, a Taiz-based Yemeni journalist with a focus on politics and war, told Al Jazeera that a fight to dislodge the Houthis would be “challenging”.

“Houthi military force and prowess is huge. They have thousands of fighters and weapon arsenals,” he said.

“However, a collective effort by the Yemeni government and its regional and international allies can quicken the Houthi collapse.”

A cautionary tale

For some Yemenis, however, al-Assad’s fall serves as a warning more than anything else.

“Syria shows us that removing a dictator is not the end of the story,” said Yunis Saleh, a shopkeeper in Sanaa. “What matters is what comes next. If Syria does not find peace, we will face the same endless cycle of violence.”

Yemenis weary of war echo this sentiment, regardless of their political affiliations. For them, al-Assad’s fall is a reminder of the need for a comprehensive solution to Yemen’s decade-long crisis.

The war between the Saudi Arabian-backed Yemeni government and the Iran-aligned Houthis has caused a humanitarian catastrophe.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said in March this year that as the conflict in Yemen enters its 10th year, more than half of the country’s population is in desperate need of aid.

An estimated 17.8 million people require health assistance, 50 percent of them children; 4.5 million people are displaced; and more than 3,700 schools have been damaged or repurposed, the UN said.

‘By peace or by force’

Abdulsalam Mohammed, the head of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis’ actions in the waterways around Yemen, where the group has attacked ships ostensibly in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza under attack by Israel, had led to international isolation, and a campaign of air attacks led by the United States and the United Kingdom.

The Houthis have also conducted missile and drone attacks on Israel, leading to Israeli attacks on Yemen.

Having been removed by the US from its terrorist designation list in 2021, the Houthis were re-added to it last January.

“There is a national, regional and international decision to end the rule of the Houthis in Yemen, whether by peace or by force,” Abdulsalam Mohammed said. “Time will tell how this will materialise.”

Abdulsalam Mohammed also believes that this turn away from the Houthis extends to the Gulf.

“The Houthi drones and missiles have constantly threatened the oil-producing Gulf states,” Abdulsalam Mohammed said. “Therefore, when the opportunity comes to weaken the Houthis, the Gulf will capitalise on it. Similarly, Houthi opponents in Yemen will prioritise a military solution as the group’s fall becomes possible.”

The defeat of the “axis of resistance” in Syria and its losses in Lebanon could also pave the way for the fall of the Houthis in Yemen, according to Abdulsalam Mohammed.

“The Houthis have been looking for new allies, such as Russia,” he said. “However, this does not prevent the scenario of Hezbollah’s collapse or the fall of al-Assad’s rule from being repeated in Yemen.”

“This is a golden opportunity for the Yemeni government to regain control of provinces it lost to the Houthis over the past years of war.”

But that might be easier said than done. There have been few indications that anti-Houthi forces are gearing up for a major offensive.

The Houthis control some of the most populated parts of Yemen, but the territory is also largely mountainous and easier to defend than the more flat terrain of the former Syrian opposition’s advance towards Damascus before it fell. The Houthis also still have the support of many of Yemen’s influential tribes, in particular, the tribes that surround Sanaa, which are vital to any chance of taking back control of the capital.

Saleh, the history graduate in Sanaa, described the atmosphere in Yemen as calm for now, but added that it could “explode at any moment”.

“The Houthis wait for a life-and-death battle, and their opponents remain hesitant to begin a war,” Saleh said. “It may begin at any time, but its end will be indefinite.”