Could Britain face a winter ice age? How future temperatures could plummet due to climate change

There is simply a poorly understood but plausible accidental wintertime temperatures could 1 time plummet successful the UK adjacent arsenic planetary temperatures soar.

An emerging assemblage of probe has spotted the hazard that climate change could weaken oregon adjacent illness a large water existent that brings vigor northwards from the Atlantic into Europe.

In the lack of that lukewarm front, Britain would beryllium plunged into a caller crystal property successful winter, battling frozen runways, roads, forests and farmland.

Arctic oversea crystal would broad overmuch of Scotland and astir of the North Sea down to East Anglia by precocious winter.

Temperatures successful London would scope lows of -19C, a staggering 16C colder than lows successful the 1800s, earlier humans began warming the climate.

That's according to a caller survey published contiguous that has modelled what a illness of the alleged "AMOC" (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), combined with 2C of planetary warming, would mean for Europe.

All scientists cognize astatine this stage, much oregon less, is that the AMOC is little unchangeable than antecedently thought.

They don't cognize however apt a illness is, however rapidly it could unfold, and what the precise impacts would be.

What they bash know, is that if it happens, it would beryllium "quite devastating," said pb writer Rene van Westen, from Utrecht University successful the Netherlands.

"The AMOC is presently regulating the planetary climate. And if this shuts down, you volition get important and drastic clime shifts... connected a planetary scale."

And they accidental the hazard has truthful acold been overlooked.

What is the AMOC?

Snaking its mode astir the world, the alleged AMOC plays a important relation successful regulating some the European and planetary clime by circulating vigor via the oceans similar a conveyor belt.

But arsenic the clime warms, it dumps much freshwater successful the water via rainfall and melting ice.

This freshwater could dilatory down the conveyor loop to a constituent wherever the strategy shuts down completely.

Arctic oversea crystal would creep overmuch further southwards successful winter, coating parts of Scandinavia and the Netherlands arsenic good arsenic Britain.

What would an AMOC illness bash to Europe?

Today's survey modelled what it would mean for Europe if the satellite warmed by astir 2C, and the AMOC collapsed.

Edinburgh would successful immoderate years spot acold extremes of astir -30°C - astir 23°C colder than successful the pre-industrial climate. Once a decade, determination would beryllium frost for astir fractional the days successful a year.

In Cardiff, temperatures would scope -19.6C.

Meanwhile, oversea levels successful Europe would emergence by 50cm, and rainfall would autumn by 20%.

"The utmost winters would beryllium similar surviving successful an crystal age," said Professor Tim Lenton, an Exeter University idiosyncratic who besides researches AMOC.

But bizarrely, summertime temperatures would not beryllium affected by the AMOC weakening, resulting successful cold-hot extremes much communal successful continental upwind systems.

That's due to the fact that the oversea crystal would inactive melt successful summer, and the effect of the 2C of warming would footwear in.

"In utmost years, it would beryllium similar coming retired of the freezer into a frying cookware of summertime heatwaves," added Prof Lenton.

"It is hard to over-stress however antithetic a clime this is. Adapting to it would beryllium a monumental challenge."

When could this happen?

The impacts suggested successful this survey - published successful peer-reviewed diary Geophysical Research Letters - are utmost and determination remains a agelong database of questions.

Scientists don't expect the AMOC to fizzle retired this century.

And if the satellite warmed by much similar 4C, the warming effect would override the cooling effect of immoderate AMOC collapse.

But Prof Richard Allan from Reading University said it is inactive "important to trial the crushed for these improbable but precocious interaction possibilities, successful the aforesaid mode that we insure our homes against improbable calamity".

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It raises hard and terrifying questions astir what benignant of clime we should beryllium trying to accommodate to.

Although scientists are undecided connected whether the AMOC volition dice out, what they bash hold connected is that the complexity and weirdness of the clime strategy is wherefore we should messiness with it arsenic small arsenic possible.

Prof Allen added: "Even the specified anticipation of this dire storyline unfolding implicit coming centuries underscores the request to forensically show what is happening successful our oceans, and to proceed gathering momentum crossed each sectors of nine to chopped greenhouse state emissions which are driving our clime into dangerous, uncharted territory."