CNBC Daily Open: Divergence between official and ADP jobs reports reveals two labor markets

There's a country successful the cinematic masterpiece Mean Girls successful which a quality writes successful large bloody script: "DO NOT TRUST HER."

Apologies successful beforehand to the bully folks astatine ADP, who I'm definite are doing bully enactment processing backstage payrolls. But we mightiness privation to support successful caput the supra informing erstwhile assessing the monthly ADP jobs report. 

Official labour numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a higher-than-expected summation of 147,000 jobs successful June. The ADP report, released Wednesday, pointed to a alteration of 33,000 backstage assemblage jobs.

That's not conscionable a quality successful magnitude, but besides of direction. Emphasizing this point, the unemployment complaint successful June fell to 4.1% from 4.2% successful the period before, defying a forecast for an summation to 4.3%.

The details lurking beneath the authoritative jobs report, however, suggest I could beryllium a tad unfair to the ADP report.

Jobs successful the authorities roseate by 73,000 successful June, making up astir half of the full nonfarm payroll growth for the month, arsenic noted by CNBC's Alex Harring. The ADP study lone measures backstage payrolls — which exclude authorities jobs.

"The header occupation gains and astonishing dip successful unemployment are undoubtedly bully news, but for occupation seekers extracurricular of healthcare & societal assistance, section government, and nationalist education, the gains volition apt ringing hollow," wrote Cory Stahle, economist astatine Indeed Hiring Lab.

The immense divergence betwixt the ADP and BLS reports, then, mightiness not beryllium that overmuch of a statistical aberration — and could constituent to a increasing schism successful the U.S. labour market.