China’s Xi Jinping meets Central Asian leaders: Why their summit matters

Chinese President Xi Jinping reached Kazakhstan connected Monday to be the 2nd China–Central Asia Summit, a high-stakes diplomatic gathering aimed astatine deepening Beijing’s economical and strategical ties with the region.

The summit, which volition beryllium held connected Tuesday successful the Kazakh superior Astana, comes astatine a clip erstwhile China is intensifying its outreach to Central Asian countries amid shifting planetary powerfulness alignments — and mounting tensions successful neighbouring Iran, which is roiled successful an escalating struggle with Israel.

The acme volition bring unneurotic the heads of authorities from each 5 Central Asian nations — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — on with Xi.

The Astana acme besides carries symbolic weight: it is the archetypal clip that the 5 Central Asian nations are holding a acme successful the portion with the person of different country.

So, what is the value of the China-Central Asia Summit? And is China battling some the United States and Russia for power successful the region?

What’s connected Xi’s docket successful Astana?

On Monday, Xi was greeted by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and different elder officials astatine the airdrome successful Astana. The Astana acme follows the inaugural May 2023 China–Central Asia Summit, which was held successful Xi’an, the superior metropolis of China’s Shaanxi province.

Xi is expected to beryllium successful Astana from June 16 to 18 and is scheduled to clasp bilateral meetings with Kazakhstan’s leaders connected Monday earlier the acme connected June 17.

At the summit, helium is expected to present a keynote code and “exchange views connected the achievements of the China-Central Asia mechanism, mutually beneficial practice nether the framework, and planetary and determination hotspot issues,” said a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

The bureau of Kazakhstan’s president noted that some countries are “set to further fortify bilateral ties” and Xi volition besides seat “high-level talks with President [Tokayev] focused connected deepening the broad strategical partnership”.

Tokayev, who has been successful bureau since 2019, is simply a fluent Mandarin talker and antecedently served arsenic a diplomat successful China.

Zhao Long, a elder probe chap astatine the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), told Al Jazeera that Central Asian countries spot their concern with China arsenic a deep, multifaceted practice grounded successful shared strategical and pragmatic interests.

“The alignment with China helps Central Asian states heighten their determination stability, prosecute economical modernisation, and diversify their diplomatic portfolios,” said Zhao. Where Central Asia has abundant vigor resources, helium said, China offers immense markets, precocious technology, and infrastructure expertise.

Last Friday, Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told a quality briefing that establishing “the China-Central Asia mechanics was a unanimous determination among China and the 5 Central Asian countries, which dovetails with the region’s communal tendency to support stableness and prosecute high-quality development”.

Since China archetypal formalised and chaired the China-Central Asia Summit successful May 2023, Lin said, “China’s relations with Central Asian countries person entered a caller epoch … injecting caller impetus into determination improvement and delivering tangibly for the peoples of each six countries.”

“We judge done this summit, China and 5 Central Asian countries volition further consolidate the instauration of communal trust,” Lin added.

“During the summit, President Xi volition besides conscionable with these leaders and laic retired the top-level program for China’s relations with [the] 5 Central Asian countries,” said the spokesperson.

SIIS’s Zhao said Xi’s attendance astatine the 2nd acme sends a wide message: “China places precocious strategical value connected Central Asia.”

Former US President Joe Biden (centre) hosts a C5+1 acme gathering with the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan connected the sidelines of the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly successful New York City, New York, the US, September 19, 2023 [File: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]

What’s ‘C5+1’ – and is China racing the US for influence?

Experts are dubbing the China-Central Asia Summit arsenic a C5+1 framework, due to the fact that of the 5 determination nations involved.

The United States archetypal initiated the conception of specified a acme with each 5 Central Asian nations successful 2015, nether then-US President Barack Obama. But astatine the time, the conclave was held astatine the level of overseas ministers. Then-US Secretary of State John Kerry led the archetypal gathering successful September 2015 connected the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) successful New York.

In January 2022, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a virtual acme with the 5 Central Asian authorities heads, and past successful June 2025, helium invited them for a follow-up conclave successful India.

Meanwhile, successful 2023, Xi hosted the leaders successful Xi’an. Four months later, then-US President Joe Biden hosted the C5 authorities heads connected the sidelines of the UNGA successful New York. It was the archetypal clip a US president met with Central Asian heads of authorities nether this framework.

But existent US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could upset that outreach from Washington. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan person each been tariffed astatine 10 percent.

Trump initially imposed an adjacent higher 27 percent tariff connected imports from Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy, though arsenic with each different countries, the US president has paused these rates, limiting tariffs to a level 10 percent for now.

China has cited these tariff rates to task itself arsenic a much reliable spouse to Central Asia than the US. At the gathering with the overseas ministers of the portion successful April, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi criticised unilateralism, commercialized protectionism, and “the inclination of anti-globalisation [that] has severely impacted the escaped commercialized system”.

The US, Wang said, was “undermining the rule-based multilateral trading system, and destabilising the planetary economy”.

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and China’s President Xi Jinping locomotion past honour guards during a welcoming ceremonial earlier talks successful Astana, Kazakhstan connected July 3, 2024 [File: Press Service of the President of Kazakhstan/via Reuters]

Why does Central Asia substance to China?

The region, affluent successful uranium, oil, and uncommon world metals, has go progressively important to China arsenic a cardinal corridor for commercialized with Europe. Subsequently, China has accrued its engagement with Central Asian countries.

Xi, who has curtailed his overseas visits since the COVID-19 pandemic, is visiting Kazakhstan for the 3rd clip since 2020. He visited successful 2022, and past again successful 2024.

Central Asia is besides a captious portion of Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — a web of highways, railroads and ports connecting Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America — arsenic a gateway to Europe.

Experts expect the BRI to fig prominently astatine the acme successful Astana connected Tuesday, with further accent connected collaboration successful vigor and sustainable development.

A planned $8bn railway connecting China’s Xinjiang portion to Uzbekistan done Kyrgyzstan is apt to beryllium connected the agenda, the SIIS’s Zhao said. Construction connected the task is scheduled to statesman successful July. Expected to beryllium completed by 2030, the railway way volition supply China with much nonstop entree to Central Asia and trim the 3 countries’ reliance connected Russia’s transport infrastructure.

Additionally, Zhao said, the acme whitethorn diagnostic agreements connected reducing tariffs, streamlining customs procedures, and lowering non-tariff barriers to boost bilateral commercialized volumes.

From near to right, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, China’s President Xi Jinping, Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov, and Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdymukhamedov airs for a radical photograph league during the archetypal China-Central Asia Summit successful Xi’an, Shaanxi province, China, May 19, 2023 [File: Florence Lo/Reuters]

How overmuch does Central Asia beryllium connected China?

A lot.

China is contiguous the apical trading spouse of each of the 5 Central Asian republics.

• Kazakhstan imported goods worthy $18.7bn from China and exported goods worthy $15bn successful 2023 — making up 30 percent of its full imports and 16 percent of exports.
• Tajikistan imported goods worthy $3.68bn from China and exported goods worthy $250m successful 2023 — making up 56 percent of its full imports and 16 percent of exports.
• Kyrgyzstan imported goods worthy $3.68bn and exported goods worthy $887m successful 2023 from China — constituting 29 percent of its full imports and 26 percent of exports.
• Uzbekistan imported goods worthy $12.7bn and exported goods worthy $1.82bn successful 2023 from the world’s second-largest system — representing 32 percent of its full imports and 6 percent of exports.
• Turkmenistan imported goods worthy $957m and exported goods worthy $9.63bn successful 2023 from China — oregon 20 percent of its full imports and 62 percent of exports.

China is besides ramping up its investments successful the region. It has committed to an estimated $26bn successful investments successful Kazakhstan, for instance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin astatine the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) acme successful Astana, Kazakhstan, November 28, 2024 [File: Gavriil Grigorov/Kremlin via Reuters]

Is China replacing Russia successful Central Asia?

It’s complicated.

Formerly parts of the Soviet Union, the 5 Central Asian republics person agelong belonged successful Russia’s strategical sphere of influence. Millions of radical from the 5 republics unrecorded and enactment successful Russia, and since 2023, Moscow has go a supplier of earthy state to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which person faced vigor shortages — adjacent though Central Asia was historically a supplier of vigor to Russia.

But though Russia remains a large economical unit successful the region, China has overtaken it arsenic the largest trading spouse of Central Asian republics implicit the past 3 years — a play that has coincided with Russia’s warfare connected Ukraine. Some of that accrued trade, successful fact, is believed to beryllium the result of China utilizing Central Asia arsenic a conduit for exports to Russia of goods that look Western sanctions.

Still, determination are ways successful which Russia remains the region’s preeminent extracurricular ally. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan — 3 of the region’s 5 nations — are portion of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) — on with Russia, Armenia and Belarus. Like NATO, this bloc offers corporate information guarantees to members. In effect, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan person the screen of Russia’s extortion if they are attacked by different federation — thing that China does not offer.