Can India stop Pakistan’s river water — and will it spark a new war?

Islamabad, Pakistan – Seven decades ago, 1 of South Asia’s top fabrication writers, Saadat Hasan Manto, published a abbreviated communicative acceptable successful a colony successful Pakistan’s Punjab province. The crippled revolved astir rumours of an Indian program to “shut down” h2o to Pakistan by closing disconnected rivers that irrigated the province’s crops.

A quality successful the 1951 communicative titled Yazid responds to that chatter by saying, “…who tin adjacent a river; it’s a river, not a drain.”

That mentation is present connected test, 74 years aboriginal — with implications for 2 of the world’s astir populous nations that are besides nuclear-armed neighbours.

In April 2025, aft gunmen killed 26 civilians, astir each tourists, successful an onslaught successful Indian-administered Kashmir, New Delhi blamed armed groups that it said were backed by Pakistan for the violence.

India announced it was walking retired of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a six-decade-old transboundary h2o statement that governs the part of h2o from the Indus Basin’s six rivers. The pact is simply a lifeline for much than 270 cardinal people, astir of whom unrecorded successful Pakistan.

A time aft India’s announcement, Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC), the country’s apical information body, rejected the “unilateral” move, informing that “any diversion of Pakistan’s h2o is to beryllium treated arsenic an act of war”.

In the weeks that followed, India and Pakistan engaged successful an intense four-day conflict successful May, during which some countries exchanged rocket and drone strikes, earlier US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire betwixt them.

But though the guns person fallen silent, for now, the neighbours person some launched diplomatic campaigns aimed astatine convincing the satellite astir their narratives.

And India has refused to reconsider its determination to acceptable speech the IWT. On June 21, Amit Shah, India’s location curate and the antheral wide considered arsenic the second-in-command to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, declared the pact would stay suspended permanently.

“It volition ne'er beryllium restored. International treaties cannot beryllium annulled unilaterally, but we had the close to enactment it successful abeyance, which we person done,” Shah told The Times of India, the country’s starring newspaper, successful an interview.

“The pact preamble mentions that it was for bid and advancement of the 2 countries, but erstwhile that has been violated, determination is thing near to protect,” helium said.

For Pakistan, a little riparian country, adjacent the anticipation of h2o disruption is an existential threat.

Blocking stream flows threatens agriculture, nutrient security, and the livelihoods of millions. It could also, pass experts, acceptable the signifier for a full-fledged warfare betwixt India and Pakistan.

So tin India truly halt Pakistan’s water? And tin Pakistan bash thing to mitigate that risk?

The abbreviated answer: India cannot wholly halt the travel of rivers into Pakistan, fixed the existent infrastructure that it has. But experts caution that adjacent a tiny diversion oregon blockage could wounded Pakistan, peculiarly during the wintertime season. And astatine the moment, Pakistan does not person the reservoirs it needs to store capable h2o to woody with the situation it would look if India were to negociate to halt the travel of the Indus Basin rivers.

A stream that defines the region

The mighty Indus River, the 12th longest successful the world, originates from Mount Kailash successful Tibet astatine an elevation of 5,490 metres (18,000 feet).

It flows northwest, cutting done the scenic yet disputed Kashmir region, earlier entering Pakistan and travelling immoderate 3,000 kilometres (1,864 miles) southbound to the Arabian Sea.

In Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the Indus is joined by its occidental tributaries – the Swat and Kabul Rivers – arsenic it carves done mountainous terrain.

Entering the fertile plains of Punjab, the river’s 5 eastbound tributaries — the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — conscionable the Indus.

These rivers travel done Indian-administered Kashmir and different Indian states earlier entering Pakistan.

This geographic dynamic, with India arsenic the precocious riparian authorities and Pakistan the little state, has fed into long-standing distrust betwixt the neighbours.

To beryllium clear, transboundary h2o conflicts are not exclusive to Pakistan and India, and historians person recorded wars implicit h2o since past times.

In the past fractional a period alone, Turkiye, Syria and Iraq person had disputes implicit h2o sharing owed to the operation of dams connected the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers.

More recently, determination is an ongoing h2o struggle betwixt Egypt and Sudan against Ethiopia, an precocious riparian authorities constructing a dam connected the Nile, causing insecurity among the 2 little riparian nations.

In South Asia itself, Bangladesh, India and Nepal person water-sharing disputes implicit the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers system.

Partition’s lingering legacy

As with astir India-Pakistan disputes, the 2 countries’ tensions implicit h2o are rooted successful the partition of the subcontinent successful August 1947, erstwhile some nations gained independency from British assemblage rule.

The portion of Jammu and Kashmir, wherever the Jhelum originates and the Chenab flows, became a central constituent of conflict.

But different captious contented was the part of Punjab’s irrigation system, which had operated arsenic a unified web nether British rule. Canals, rivers and headworks were each intertwined, complicating h2o sharing.

A short-lived statement held until March 1948, erstwhile India suspended h2o travel done 2 canals into Pakistan. The stoppage near astir 8 percent of cultivable onshore successful Pakistani Punjab without h2o for 5 weeks.

That aboriginal situation inspired Manto’s Yazid and served arsenic the catalyst for the Indus Waters Treaty.

With World Bank mediation and fiscal support, the pact [PDF] was signed successful September 1960, aft 9 years of negotiations betwixt India and Pakistan.

According to Majed Akhter, elder lecturer successful geography astatine King’s College London, the pact was a “hydraulic partition” that followed governmental partition. “It was needed to resoluteness issues of the cognition of an integrated irrigation strategy successful Punjab, a state which the British invested heavy successful and that was partitioned successful 1947,” helium told Al Jazeera.

But Akhter pointed retired that h2o sharing betwixt the neighbours is besides linked to their quality implicit Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan power parts of the region, with China besides administering 2 slices of Kashmir. India, however, claims each of Kashmir, and Pakistan claims each of the portion different than the parts controlled by China, its ally.

“Territorial power of Kashmir means power of the waters of the Indus, which is the main root of h2o for the heavy agrarian economies” of Pakistan and India, Akhter said.

India and Pakistan person fought 3 of their 4 wars implicit Kashmir, earlier the latest struggle successful May.

A presumption of Baglihar Dam, besides known arsenic Baglihar Hydroelectric Power Project, connected the Chenab stream which flows from Indian-administered Kashmir into Pakistan, astatine Chanderkote successful Jammu portion May 6, 2025 [Stringer/ Reuters]

Treaty that divided the rivers

The 85-page pact is unusually structured. Unlike astir planetary h2o treaties that stock h2o according to their full measurement of flows, the IWT divides the rivers.

The 3 eastbound rivers – Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas – were allocated wholly to India, portion the 3 occidental rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – were reserved for Pakistan’s exclusive use.

India, however, was permitted to physique “run-of-the-river” hydroelectric projects connected the occidental rivers, provided they adhered to plan limitations meant to guarantee uninterrupted h2o travel to Pakistan.

The pact besides has a three-tiered quality solution mechanism.

Any method questions are brought earlier the Permanent Indus Commission, a lasting bilateral assemblage composed of 1 commissioner from each country, which is acceptable up nether the IWT clauses.

If the committee can’t resoluteness immoderate differences, the substance is past referred to a neutral adept nether the supervision of the World Bank. If the quality inactive remains unresolved, it tin past beryllium taken to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA). The Hague-based PCA is not a United Nations bureau but an intergovernmental organisation to which countries spell to “facilitate arbitration and different forms of quality solution betwixt states”.

Though the pact has been successful spot for implicit six decades, this ceremonial quality solution way has lone been invoked successful 3 cases, each involving Indian hydroelectric powerfulness projects connected occidental rivers: Baglihar, Kishenganga and Ratle.

India was capable to triumph its lawsuit regarding Baglihar, a dam built connected the Chenab, earlier a neutral adept successful 2007, pursuing which the task started operating a twelvemonth later.

The Kishenganga project, built connected the Jhelum, again faced absorption from Pakistan, which claimed the operation would interaction h2o travel into Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

The substance was taken to the PCA, wherever a 2013 determination allowed India to divert h2o for powerfulness procreation purposes, portion ensuring that h2o travel towards Pakistan continued. The task was inaugurated successful 2018 by Indian PM Modi.

The Ratle hydroelectric plant, besides being constructed connected the Chenab, is the latest flashpoint betwixt the 2 neighbours.

Pakistan has sought the PCA’s engagement implicit the dispute, but India has argued that nether the IWT, the countries request to archetypal spell earlier a neutral expert. However, with India present nary longer adhering to the water-sharing treaty, a unreality hovers over the arbitration process, portion operation connected the task continues.

‘Blood and water’

Over its 65-year history, the IWT has withstood large pressures: Wars, a secessionist question successful Indian-administered Kashmir, recurring subject skirmishes, deadly attacks successful India that New Delhi has blamed connected Pakistan-backed equipped groups, and adjacent atomic tests by India and Pakistan.

The April 2025 Pahalgam attack marked a breaking point. But signs of the treaty’s fragility had emerged agelong earlier that.

In September 2016, pursuing an onslaught connected an Indian Army basal successful Uri, a municipality successful Indian-administered Kashmir, that killed astatine slightest 18 Indian soldiers, India accused the Jaish-e-Muhammad, a Pakistan-based equipped radical that has carried retired aggregate attacks connected Indian soil, of being down the Uri strike.

Pakistan swiftly denied immoderate engagement of its government, but India’s then-Home Minister Rajnath Singh branded Pakistan a “terrorist state” that supported “terrorists and coercion groups”.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, past successful his archetypal word starring the Hindu majoritarian Bharatiya Janata Party, declared, “Blood and h2o cannot travel astatine the aforesaid time”, amid increasing calls wrong India to halt the travel of h2o successful Pakistan.

Nine years later, aft India really walked retired of the treaty, erstwhile Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari issued a informing adjacent much chilling than Modi’s archetypal comment.

“The Indus is ours and volition stay ours, either our h2o volition travel done it, oregon their blood,” helium thundered astatine an April rally successful Sindh, a state named aft the Indus River (Sindhu successful Sanskrit).

Tarbela Dam is Pakistan’s largest dam, which was completed successful 1976 connected the Indus River and has a retention capableness of 11.6 cardinal acre-feet [File Photo: Anjum Naveed/AP Photo]

Symbolism oregon substance?

Several h2o experts reason that India’s suspension of the IWT is much symbolic than instantly harmful to Pakistan.

Naseer Memon, an Islamabad-based biology and h2o expert, called it a “political gimmick” designed to make anxiousness successful Pakistan alternatively than change h2o flows.

First, there’s planetary law, which Pakistan believes is connected its side. “Modi is trying to represent that helium would halt Pakistan’s h2o immediately. But legally, helium cannot determine thing astir the IWT unilaterally,” Memon told Al Jazeera.

Three weeks aft India’s suspension of the treaty, Ajay Banga, the Indian-American president of the World Bank, besides said that determination is nary proviso successful the IWT that allows a enactment to unilaterally suspend the treaty.

“There is nary proviso successful the pact to let to beryllium suspended. The mode it was drawn up, it either needs to beryllium gone oregon it needs to beryllium replaced by different one. That requires the 2 countries to privation to agree,” helium said during a sojourn to New Delhi successful May.

Geography and infrastructure besides bounds what India tin do. Daanish Mustafa, prof of captious geography astatine King’s College London, argued that these factors support Pakistan much than its policymakers connected either broadside acknowledge. “The fanatic attachment to hydro-control successful India and hydro-vulnerability successful Pakistan is astir comical,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Of the six rivers successful the Indus Basin, the waters of 3 — the Sutlej, Beas and Ravi — are successful immoderate lawsuit lone for India’s use, nether the IWT.

Of the 3 rivers whose waters beryllium to Pakistan, the Indus passes concisely done Indian-administered Kashmir and Ladakh. But Memon, the Islamabad-based expert, said that topography successful the portion means that the stream passes done areas that are snowy, with small abstraction for immoderate canal diversion oregon cultivation projects. “Plus, determination is not capable quantum of h2o successful the Indus successful that country which would marque it feasible for India to physique immoderate project,” helium said.

Indian hydroelectric projects connected the remaining 2 rivers — the Kishenganga dam connected the Jhelum, and Baglihar dam and the under-construction Ratle dam connected the Chenab — person sparked concerns successful Pakistan, which has protested against them nether the IWT.

Islamabad alleges that the projects could let India to little h2o levels into Pakistan, and that the Kishenganga dam could besides alteration the people of the Jhelum. New Delhi rejects these allegations.

In reality, experts accidental that arsenic with the Indus, India lacks the quality to divert h2o from the Jhelum, too. The stream passes done populated areas of Indian-administered Kashmir specified arsenic Baramulla and Jammu, Memon said. Any plans to conception a dam determination could enactment the colonisation astatine hazard of inundation.

The lawsuit of the Chenab is different. Its waters “could beryllium disturbed” by India, Memon said, though not successful each seasons.

The adept says that the stream has respective imaginable sites wherever dams could beryllium built. But adjacent if India built a dam, Memon said, it would not beryllium capable to store overmuch h2o during the summertime season, erstwhile the travel of h2o is astatine its peak, arsenic that could hazard flooding India’s ain colonisation surviving adjacent the project. To debar that, India would request to let h2o to travel downstream — into Pakistan.

Anuttama Banerji, a New Delhi-based governmental expert and h2o specialist, agreed that India cannot “stop” the stream flow, lone modulate its release.

“The travel of the Chenab River tin beryllium regulated done dams and retention facilities, but India would request superior superior concern [for that]”, she said. “The menace won’t materialise for Pakistan successful the contiguous term.”

Still, pass galore experts, conscionable due to the fact that India cannot astatine the infinitesimal halt h2o travel into Pakistan does not trim either the worth of the IWT arsenic a limb for New Delhi, oregon Islamabad’s vulnerability successful the future.

‘Real unit point’

Dan Haines, biology historiographer astatine University College London and writer of the publication Rivers Divided: Indus Basin Waters successful the Making of India and Pakistan, warned that adjacent symbolic disruptions of h2o flows by India could undermine Pakistan’s agriculture.

Agriculture accounts for astir 25 percent of Pakistan’s gross home merchandise (GDP) and employs much than 40 percent of the workforce.

“The Indian authorities announced the abeyance precise rapidly aft the Pahalgam violent onslaught due to the fact that it knows that h2o is simply a existent unit constituent for Pakistan. Water is precise politically sensitive,” Haines said.

In galore ways, the caller fracture implicit river-sharing is precisely what the IWT had tried to insulate India-Pakistan relations from, accidental analysts.

“What India is attempting to bash is to resistance the contented of h2o squarely backmost into the domain of politics, which the pact explicitly sought to separate,” Erum Sattar, lecturer successful sustainable h2o absorption astatine Tufts University, told Al Jazeera.

“Given Pakistan’s reliance connected the waters of the Indus, it is perfectly the lawsuit that having the pact clasp successful its contiguous signifier is captious and captious to Pakistan.”

And Pakistan needs to hole for a aboriginal wherever India mightiness person the quality to wounded it much than it presently can, utilizing water, said Ahmed Irfan Aslam, a lawyer by practice, and a erstwhile national curate who oversaw portfolios including law, justice, water, clime change, and investment. Aslam has besides represented Pakistan successful planetary h2o arbitration cases, including nether the IWT.

“India does not person the capableness to halt rivers from flowing today. But that does not mean that they cannot get oregon make that strategy implicit time,” helium said.

Memon, too, agreed that portion India can’t artifact the Chenab’s travel into Pakistan successful the summer, the dynamic changes erstwhile the upwind does.

“The existent concern, however, arises during wintertime erstwhile h2o travel reduces. And successful lawsuit India builds retention oregon diversion projects, they could origin harm to Pakistan’s wintertime crops, specified arsenic wheat,” helium said. “Additionally, if determination is simply a thin h2o travel successful the summertime season, the dams tin besides store h2o during that clip arsenic well, which could wounded Pakistan’s agriculture.”

Shiraz Memon (no narration to Naseer), a erstwhile Pakistani typical connected the Permanent Indus Commission for Pakistan, besides said that helium feared that aboriginal Indian projects connected the Chenab could yet wounded Pakistan.

These projects — including the Ratle dam — “could clasp h2o betwixt 50 to 60 days during winter, which could beryllium precise damaging to Pakistan’s Punjab, which is wholly reliant connected the Chenab River for its cultivation needs,” helium told Al Jazeera.

How prepared is Pakistan for an India artifact connected h2o flows?

At the moment, Pakistan has constricted h2o retention capabilities. The state has 3 large multipurpose reservoirs – Mangla, Tarbela, and Chashma – arsenic good arsenic 19 barrages and 12 inter-river nexus canals.

Together, these let for the retention of conscionable nether 15 cardinal acre-feet (MAF) of water, capable for astir 4 weeks. International standards urge retention equivalent to astatine slightest 120 days.

To code the shortfall, Pakistan is gathering 2 large dams connected the Indus River – Mohmand and Diamer-Bhasha – which are expected to summation capableness by different 9 MAF upon their completion successful 2028 and 2029, respectively.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif precocious acknowledged the request for expanded retention and pledged to act. “The force has definite evil designs against Pakistan and wants to instrumentality steps against the h2o treaty. For that, the authorities has decided that we volition physique our h2o storage,” Sharif said connected July 1.

In effect, that sets up a contention betwixt India perchance processing the capableness to really artifact the travel of h2o into Pakistan if it wants to, and Pakistan gathering retention facilities large capable to trim the hazard of a forced h2o shortage.

Still, nary substance however overmuch retention capableness Pakistan builds, it won’t beryllium capable to past much than short-term disruptions to h2o flow, if India were to effort to artifact rivers from entering into its neighbour’s territory.

Khurram Dastgir Khan, a erstwhile national curate for overseas affairs and defence successful Pakistan, said that India acquiring the capableness to divert oregon store h2o successful the mean to agelong word could propulsion the portion into war.

“India’s menace is simply a genuine, existential concern,” Khan, a elder person of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, told Al Jazeera. “The Indus Basin is simply a civilisation. Flow of these waters has braced our situation and sustained improvement of Pakistan’s culture, arts, agriculture, and industry. But PM Modi and his ministers person threatened repeatedly to halt each driblet of h2o flowing into Pakistan.”

What makes that menace peculiarly worrying for Pakistan, said Aslam, the different erstwhile minister, is the breakdown successful immoderate spot betwixt the neighbours.

“What you person close present is simply a concern successful which we arsenic Pakistanis consciousness that bully religion is nary longer determination connected the different broadside of the border,” Aslam told Al Jazeera during an interrogation astatine his residence successful Islamabad.

But Aslam acknowledged that the sentiment mightiness beryllium shared crossed the border. “Indians whitethorn person a akin presumption connected this astir Pakistan,” helium conceded.

People instrumentality photographs connected the adust Chenab River aft the travel of h2o was halted from a dam, astatine Akhnoor, connected the outskirts of Jammu successful India successful May 2025 [Channi Anan/AP Photo]

A caller Indus Waters Treaty?

For now, some sides person adopted hard-line positions. New Delhi has rejected immoderate reversal of the IWT suspension, portion Pakistani officials person termed it an “act of war” and accused India of weaponising water.

But analysts — and immoderate Pakistani politicians — inactive clasp retired anticipation for diplomacy, oregon planetary ineligible intervention.

“India, we hope, and we expect, volition enactment similar a liable state,” said Aslam. “And eventually, immoderate issues determination are, 2 neighbours volition person to beryllium down to speech to each different and resolve.”

Al Jazeera reached retired to respective Pakistani authorities officials – including the ministers for defence, information, and h2o – but received nary responses astir the government’s program of enactment for a script erstwhile India really is capable to — and does — artifact the travel of water.

However, a elder subject official, speaking connected information of anonymity, pointed retired that Pakistan was already invoking planetary ineligible channels to marque its case.

Since 2016, Pakistan has been protesting India’s hydroelectric projects connected the Jhelum and Chenab astatine the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) successful The Hague. Last week, the PCA ruled that India’s determination to clasp the IWT successful abeyance did not interaction its authority to adjudicate the case.

However, India has consistently refused to recognise the PCA’s authorization successful the case, truthful it is unclear whether New Delhi volition judge immoderate verdict that emerges from that court.

That efficaciously leaves Pakistan with 2 options: a subject response, oregon a diplomatic solution.

The elder subject authoritative said that for Pakistan, the Indus waters were a “lifeline for the 250 cardinal radical of the country”.

“We spot this arsenic an enactment of war, and if determination is immoderate enactment taken by the Indians which we deem harmful to our interest, we volition respond,” the authoritative told Al Jazeera. “Any enactment of warfare authorises america to present an appropriate, morganatic and befitting effect astatine a clip and spot of our choosing.”

Banerji, besides a erstwhile chap astatine the Washington-based Stimson Center, said immoderate subject effect would beryllium unwise fixed that the caller struggle has already reduced abstraction for dialogue.

“I judge Pakistan should besides reassess the pact and spot wherever it tin deduce benefits from a modified treaty, arsenic that tin alteration the pact to get a caller signifier that is mutually beneficial to some sides,” she said.

Mustafa, the King’s College London geography professor, said Pakistan could usage India’s determination to locomotion distant from the IWT to besides question a renegotiated statement — including by staking a assertion to immoderate of the h2o from the eastbound rivers that New Delhi presently controls fully.

Aslam said that though nonstop negotiations betwixt India and Pakistan stay the astir effectual mode forward, the existent clime makes dialog unlikely.

“As a measurement of past resort, I deliberation the [Pakistan] authorities has made its presumption precise wide connected this,” helium said.

“If Pakistan is deprived of water, each options are determination connected the table, including the information to usage subject solutions.”