As war rages in neighbouring Ukraine, Moldova readies for two crucial votes

On Sunday, Moldovans will have the opportunity to cast two votes.

One is to elect a new president. The other is a referendum on whether their country should include the goal of European Union accession in its constitution.

A landlocked nation home to the pro-Kremlin breakaway region of Transnistria, Moldova is sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania as Russia’s war rages on – and is often home to divisions between pro-West and pro-Moscow factions.

Here’s all you need to know:

What are the key issues?

Moldova is a small nation with a population of about three million. About 500,000 people live in Transnistria.

The country has a Romanian-speaking majority and a large Russian-speaking minority.

Despite having in recent years marked the highest gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Europe, it is still one of the poorest countries there. Moldovans are currently battling high energy prices and inflation, while the minimum wage remains low, at 5,000 leu ($283).

Since the USSR broke up in 1991, the former Soviet country has had leaders who have switched between pro-EU and pro-Russia paths.

Maia Sandu, the incumbent president running for re-election, is determined to see Moldova join the EU and has set a target year of 2030 for its accession.

Moscow’s war in Ukraine has directly affected Moldovans, who now secure gas from the West rather than Russia.

Where does Moldova stand on Russia’s war in Ukraine?

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moldova has sought to distance itself from Russia economically and drawn closer ties with the West.

Prior to the Ukraine war, Moldova was entirely dependent on Russia for gas and received most of its electricity at a cheap cost from a thermal power station in the separatist region of Transnistria, which is supplied by Russia’s state-owned company Gazprom.

Transnistria claimed independence from Moldova in 1990 with Russian support and three decades on, the country still hosts about 1,500 Russian troops.

However, the international community does not recognise Transnistria’s self-declared independence.

Later in 2022, Moldova cut its dependence and as of late last year, none of its gas was imported from Russia. It now uses Western European sources.

While the reduction in Russian natural gas has stoked inflation, Sandu told Radio Free Europe in an interview last year that diversifying gas supplies means Moscow can no longer “blackmail” Chisinau “as it used to”.

Meanwhile, Russia stands accused of interfering in Moldova’s politics and governance.

In February 2023, Sandu accused Russia of plotting to overthrow Moldova’s pro-EU government through planned opposition protests.

The following month, Transnistria said it had foiled a Ukrainian plot to assassinate its leaders.

Moscow has denied claims of interference and has accused the Moldovan government of “Russophobia”.

Who is running for president?

Sandu, of the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), is bidding for another four-year term against a record 10 other candidates.

A former economist at the World Bank, she became Moldova’s first female president in the last election on November 1, 2020. She won by a landslide and her party secured a majority in parliament the following year.

According to a CBS-AXA poll, Sandu is leading the presidential race with 36.1 percent of voter support, significantly ahead of her 10 challengers.

Her closest competitors are Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor backed by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, who has 10.1 percent support, and Renato Usatii, the former mayor of Balti, with 7.5 percent.

Oleg Ignatov, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that while Sandu’s ratings have decreased in recent years due to economic strain, she is still poised to win as the other candidates are “very weak” by comparison.

“Sandu’s position is the strongest one, because her policy shows that she can get support from the West,” he said, adding that EU support is crucial for Moldova’s economy.

“The politicians who have the strongest argument are politicians who can provide real financial support to Moldova. Sandu’s policy is very efficient because she brought a lot of money to Moldova – a lot of financial, political, security support.”

He added that the PAS “did a lot of things in terms of energy, so I think she’s very successful in bringing this support from the West. This is the main factor in determining the victor.”

But a poor result for Sandu could jeopardise her party’s majority in the parliamentary elections next year.

If none of the 11 candidates win more than half the vote, the election will head for another round on November 3.

What is the referendum focused on?

Also on Sunday, Moldovans will be able to cast another vote in a referendum on the official goal of EU accession.

They will decide whether the aim should be part of Moldova’s constitution, intended as a measure to ensure that subsequent leaders will not veer from the EU path.

Ukraine and Moldova formally began EU accession talks after receiving EU candidate status in June 2022, months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began.

However, Sunday’s vote is not legally binding and does not affect Moldova’s accession to the EU.

Some presidential candidates have urged for a boycott of the referendum or called on people to vote “no”. Among them are politicians who support EU accession themselves. They have said that the referendum is merely a political play to boost Sandu, who is leading the “yes” campaign.

Ignatov said the referendum is a “smart move from a political point”.

“The results of the referendum will just show already existing divisions that are already known.”

In previous elections, average turnout has been 52.3 percent.

According to recent polls, more than half of Moldovans favour joining the EU and plan to vote “yes” in the referendum.

What are the accusations against Russia?

Moldova has officially accused Russia of political interference.

Earlier this month, police claimed that criminal groups backed by Moscow were planning to disrupt Sunday’s vote and even seize government buildings.

Last month, the government took action by shutting down several Russian online news outlets.

According to the police, a network allegedly controlled by Russia paid off 130,000 voters to cast “No” votes and support their preferred candidates.

This number represents nearly 10 percent of the usual voter turnout, according to political analyst Valeriu Pasha, Reuters reported.

Sandu’s foreign policy adviser Olga Rosca estimated that Russia has sent more than 100 million euros ($108m) to influence the vote, Reuters reported this week.