As Israel-Iran war escalates, Ukraine fears ‘more losses’ to Russia

Kyiv, Ukraine – There is simply a Persian connection millions of Ukrainians fear.

Shahed – besides spelled arsenic Shaheed oregon Shahid, primitively a Quranic word for “martyr” oregon “witness” – is the sanction fixed to the triangular, explosives-laden, Iranian-designed drones that became a harrowing portion of regular beingness and decease successful wartime Ukraine.

These days, they are assembled successful the Volga-region Russian metropolis of Yelabuga and acquisition changeless modifications to marque them faster, smarter and deadlier during each aerial raid that involves hundreds of drones.

Their latest Russian versions changeable down successful Ukraine earlier this period person artificial quality modules to amended recognise targets, video cameras and two-way vigor connection with quality operators.

“The connection ‘Shahed’ volition everlastingly beryllium cursed successful Ukrainian adjacent to ‘Moscow’ and ‘Putin’,” said Denys Kovalenko, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kovalenko’s look and arms were chopped by solid shards aft a Shahed exploded supra his bluish Kyiv neighbourhood successful 2023.

Shaheds are the astir disposable and audible portion of the subject confederation betwixt Moscow and Tehran that is being tested this period amid attacks by Israel and the United States connected Iran.

Other aspects of the confederation that impact the Russia-Ukraine warfare see Iranian-made ammunition, helmets, and flak jackets, according to Nikita Smagin, an writer and adept connected Russia-Iran relations.

However, the twelvemonth 2022, erstwhile Putin started the full-scale penetration of Ukraine, was the “peak of Iran’s value for Russia arsenic a subject partner”, Smagin told Al Jazeera.

The Kremlin has invested tens of billions of dollars into its military-industrial analyzable and shadiness systems to proviso chips, instrumentality tools and dual-purpose goods for its weapons that bypass Western sanctions.

The travel of subject technologies usually went the different mode arsenic Moscow supplied precocious aerial defence systems, missiles and warplanes to Tehran, keeping Israel worried.

In 2009, then-Israeli President Shimon Peres told this newsman successful Moscow that his sojourn was aimed astatine convincing the Kremlin to “reconsider” the merchantability of S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Tehran.

Russia’s precocious Su-35 jets were expected to beryllium delivered to Tehran earlier this year, but were not seen successful the Iranian sky.

Washington’s arms supplies to Israel person already affected Kyiv’s quality to withstand Russia’s aerial raids and dilatory beforehand connected the ground.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said connected June 9 that the White House decided to divert 20,000 anti-drone missiles earmarked for Kyiv.

“Without the assistance of the United States, we’ll person much losses,” Zelenskyy said successful televised remarks.

More Ukraine-bound subject assistance whitethorn present beryllium diverted to Israel, and the Kremlin “counts connected this scenario”, expert Smagin said.

This imaginable diversion already alarms Ukraine’s apical brass.

Arms that were “made for Ukraine volition spell to the Middle, truthful determination are nary illusions astir it”, Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, erstwhile lawman caput of Ukraine’s wide unit of equipped forces, told Al Jazeera.

There should beryllium nary illusions astir Russia’s quality to support Iran, helium said.

Even though Moscow and Tehran hail their strategical partnership, it does not envisage a communal defence clause.

Therefore, the Kremlin volition hardly beryllium capable to perpetrate to subject enactment akin to the Russian aerial raids against Syria’s then-opposition to enactment then-President Bashar al-Assad’s faltering regime, helium said.

“They won’t alteration thing significantly,” Romanenko said. “But they volition person capable for arms supplies.”

Any arms supplies may, however, enrage US President Donald Trump, who has truthful acold showed antithetic leniency towards Moscow’s actions successful Ukraine arsenic his medication botched bid talks betwixt Moscow and Kyiv.

Moscow’s condemnation of Israeli and US strikes connected Iran evoked a consciousness of hypocrisy, immoderate observers said, arsenic Russia’s statement of the attacks sounded familiar.

“No substance what arguments are utilized to warrant an irresponsible determination to taxable a sovereign state’s territory to rocket and weaponry strikes, [the decision] rudely violates planetary law, the United Nations charter and the resolutions of the UN Security Council,” Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said connected Sunday.

‘Moscow and Iran vie for China’s market’

There is an country wherever Russia and Iran vie for multibillion-dollar lipid commercialized profits that support their sanctions-hobbled economies afloat.

“Moscow and Iran vie for China’s market, and China volition respectively person to bargain much Russian lipid astatine a higher price,” Smagin said.

A 3rd of planetary lipid exports spell done the Strait of Hormuz, a constrictive transmission betwixt Iran and Oman that is afloat controlled by Tehran’s “mosquito fleet” of tiny warships.

Crude prices volition skyrocket worldwide if Tehran opts to adjacent the strait to tankers. It would besides onslaught a fiscal bonanza for Russia that could further concern the warfare successful Ukraine.

And arsenic Moscow’s warfare successful Ukraine consumes astir of Russia’s resources, its estimation successful the Middle East volition suffer.

“Reputation-wise, Russia suffers immense losses arsenic it risks not to beryllium seen arsenic a large powerfulness successful the Middle East,” Smagin said.

If Tehran rejects Trump’s “ultimate ultimatum” to enactment retired a bid deal, Washington’s attraction to Iran and Israel whitethorn spell catastrophe for Kyiv.

“Undoubtedly, the US’s refocusing connected the Middle East and Iran is simply a geopolitical catastrophe for us; there’s thing to reason about,” Kyiv-based expert Aleksey Kuschch told Al Jazeera.